Links, 2-3-12

Mitt Romney has come under fire for saying "I'm not concerned about the very poor" . . . here's the video of the entire discussion.  And here is both a cynical reaction and Romney's explanation

The other major controversy of the past 48 hours is the Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation's decision to eliminate their grants to Planned Parenthood, which sparked an uproar in the blogosphere and on social media sites and prompted NYC Michael Bloomberg to pledge $250K in matching grant money to Planned Parenthood, saying that "Politics have no place in health care".  Update: The Komen foundation has backed off their decision and said that Planned Parenthood is again eligible to apply for grants.

February has six primaries/caucuses.  In three of those states (Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan), enough polling has been done to predict a winner -- Romney is the prohibitive favorite in all three.  The Ohio primary in March, however, is a toss-up.

Columnist Nick Kristof asks "Where Are the Romney Republicans?" and, citing a new book on the history of the party, argues that today's Republicans are the outliers -- that throughout history, Massachusetts moderates like Mitt Romney have dominated the Republican Party.

The new book, “Rule and Ruin,” by Geoffrey Kabaservice, a former assistant history professor at Yale, notes that, to compete in the primaries, Romney has had to flee from his own political record and that of his father, George Romney, a former governor of Michigan who is a symbol of mainstream moderation.
“Much of the current conservative movement is characterized by this sort of historical amnesia and symbolic parricide, which seeks to undo key aspects of the Republican legacy such as Reagan’s elimination of corporate tax loopholes, Nixon’s environmental and labor safety programs, and a variety of G.O.P. achievements in civil rights, civil liberties, and good government reforms,” Kabaservice writes. “In the long view of history, it is really today’s conservatives who are ‘Republicans in name only.’ ”
After all, the original Massachusetts moderates were legendary figures in Republican history, like Elihu Root and Henry Cabot Lodge. Theodore Roosevelt embraced progressivism as “the highest and wisest form of conservatism.” Few did more to promote racial integration, civil rights and individual freedoms than a Republican, Earl Warren, in his years as chief justice.
Dwight Eisenhower cautioned against excess military spending as “a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” Richard Nixon proposed health care reform. Ronald Reagan endorsed the same tax rate for capital gains as for earned income. Each of these titans of Republican Party history would today risk mockery for these views.

Links, 2-1-12

As predicted, Romney cruised to victory in the Florida primary, making him once again the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination.  The primary was, according to one measure, the most negative campaign ever recorded -- 92% of TV commercials were negative.  Here are the exit polls.

Here's a chart comparing the 4th quarter fundraising filings for all the Presidential candidates.  As of December 31, Romney had far more money than the rest of the candidates combined.

A study of compensation of federal workers found that, controlling for other factors, those without college degrees are paid significantly more when employed by the federal government while those with graduate degrees are paid significantly less.

A new study finds that segregation in cities has been reduced, though the article notes that  “the average black resident still lives in a neighborhood that is 45 percent black and 36 percent white" and the "average white lives in a neighborhood that is 78 percent white and 7 percent black."

A study that stirred up some press finds physiological differences between conservatives and liberals

Nashville has offered buyouts to hundreds of residents whose homes were badly damaged in the flood, with the goal of reverting some areas back to greenspace to serve as floodplains.  But 30% of residents have refused the buyouts and rebuilt instead.

Conservative columnist David Brooks writes about the widening social differences between the haves and have-nots.  Comparing what he deems the "upper tribe" (20 percent of Americans) to the "lower tribe" (30 percent of Americans," a new book notes that

 Roughly 7 percent of the white kids in the upper tribe are born out of wedlock, compared with roughly 45 percent of the kids in the lower tribe. In the upper tribe, nearly every man aged 30 to 49 is in the labor force. In the lower tribe, men in their prime working ages have been steadily dropping out of the labor force, in good times and bad.
 People in the lower tribe are much less likely to get married, less likely to go to church, less likely to be active in their communities, more likely to watch TV excessively, more likely to be obese.

Brooks argues that this is counter to the narratives offered by both Conservatives and Liberals and a National Service Program would force members of the two tribes to live and "work together to spread out the values, practices and institutions that lead to achievement"

Liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that the austerity programs (cutting spending) implemented in a number of countries are only hindering economic recovery.  He notes that Britain and Italy have recovered less quickly from the Great Recession than they did from the Great Depression and argues that we should avoid repeating these country's mistakes by implementing the drastic spending cuts many in Congress advocate.  He concludes by writing that

The infuriating thing about this tragedy is that it was completely unnecessary. Half a century ago, any economist — or for that matter any undergraduate who had read Paul Samuelson’s textbook “Economics” — could have told you that austerity in the face of depression was a very bad idea. But policy makers, pundits and, I’m sorry to say, many economists decided, largely for political reasons, to forget what they used to know. And millions of workers are paying the price for their willful amnesia.

Links, 1-29-12

After the loss to Gingrich in South Carolina, Gingrich's poll numbers in Florida spiked.  Then many in the GOP establishment began speaking out against Gingrich and Romney's campaign decided to attack Gingrich directly, and the poll numbers reversed.  Gingrich hasn't given up, attacking Romney for his health care plan and moderate record in Massachusetts, but the numbers look bleak and February looks like it could be a good month for Romney.  Meanwhile, Gingrich still leads in national polls.

Gingrich also made a few notable statements last week.  The two that drew the most attention were his plan to form a colony on the moon by the end of his second term and his admission that, contrary to what he told Jon King while excoriating him at the second SC debate, his campaign did not actually offer witnesses to ABC to rebut his wife's claim.

The up and down movement in the polls likely reflects the Republican electorate's frustration with their choices, which was reflected by conservative columnist Bret Stephens' recent piece entitled "The GOP Deserves to Lose: That's what happens when you run with losers"

While "Super PAC" spending is dominating the Republican primary race, the candidates in what may be the highest profile senate race this fall (Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in MA) have signed an agreement not to allow super PAC ads.

The Economist takes an in-depth look at the American economy writing, among other things, about how we can raise the highest tax rates without doing too much damage

Here's a graphic detailing the usage of various words in the last ten State of the Union speeches and here is a fact check of the SOTU and the Republican response.

Links, 1-24-12

Last night's debate saw Romney more aggressively attacking Gingrich for his past activities, including accusations that Gingrich lobbied and had to resign as speaker.  Unlike the SC debates, moderator Brian Williams asked the crowd to remain silent -- which Gingrich said he wouldn't "allow" in the future.  Here are 5 things we learned from the debate.

Meanwhile, Gingrich's surge in the polls continues -- he's now the favorite to win in Florida and is ahead of Romney in the latest national polling.

Romney released his taxes from 2010, and estimated taxes from 2011, at midnight last night, as first reported by the Washington Post.  In 2010, Romney paid taxes equal to 13.9% of his income (which exceeded $20 million).

Here's a look ahead to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight, which is expected to frame his argument for re-election.

Frank Bruni writes about Gingrich's rhetoric, arguing that he's currently proving wrong a strategist's maxim that "a politician could succeed with his zipper down, but not with his words unbridled".

Conservative columnist David Brooks takes both parties to task, arguing that we need to mix "More economic freedom combined with more social structure; more competition combined with more support" in a sort of "free-market socialism" that would be "libertarian in the capitalist sector and activist in the human capital sector".

Links, 1-22-12

Newt Gingrich completed a stunning comeback last night and won the South Carolina primary by over 10 percentage points, raising fresh doubts about how the nomination will play out.

CNN lists five things we learned and has the result of a small poll of some SC political insiders.

One of the reasons Gingrich may have won (according to the exit polls) was that people perceived him as more electable.  Polls of hypothetical general election match-ups say otherwise.

Before Wendsday's internet blackout, public statements by Congressmen/women were overwhelmingly supportive of SOPA and PIPA, but afterwards they were overwhelmingly negative

Mitt Romney called for the release of the records of Newt Gingrich's reprimand by the House, but the full report is already available online here.  Meanwhile, Romney will now release his 2010 tax return on Tuesday.

Here's an interesting piece on why Apple, and other companies, have outsourced virtually all of their manufacturing to China and elsewhere.

Links, 1-19-12

A couple of days ago, it looked like Mitt Romney was going to cruise to victory in the Republican primaries, but now they're in a bit more flux.  First, after re-checking the ballots, Rick Santorum was declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses.  Then, Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

A few minutes later, ABC News announced they would air an interview with Gingrich's second wife, in which she later alleged that he asked to have an open marriage shortly after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis -- an allegation that led to an explosive response from Gingrich to lead off tonight's Republican debate.  Meanwhile, Gingrich and Romney are tied in the latest 538 South Carolina primary projections.

Mitt Romney ruffled some feathers when stated that he paid only about 15% in federal income taxes despite his vast wealth, but David Leonhardt points out that even though most Americans think they pay more than 15% in federal income taxes, only about 1/3 actually do.

Ron Paul returned to Congress to cast a symbolic vote against raising the debt ceiling, and CNN spoke to many of his colleagues -- a number of whom say Paul "doesn't have many fans in Congress"

Nate Silver examines some survey results and points out that there's no much evidence that the majority of Republican primary voters want "anybody but Romney"

Politics Links, 1-16-12

A New York Times news analysis discusses some new books on the Tea Party and concludes that this is the first insurgency within the Republican Party not to be led by insiders.  The article notes that despite the influence of Tea Party groups, Romney seems to be on the cusp of winning.

In order to prevent this from happening, a group of evangelical leaders met on Saturday and decided to band together to support Rick Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.

Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman was endorsed by the largest newspaper in South Carolina yesterday morning . . . and then decided to drop out of the race later that day.

While polls indicate that a Romney victory may be imminent, most Republican primary voters still know little about the candidates.

But you don't have to be like everybody else: here's a comparison of the tax plans laid out by the candidates so far.

Here's what to expect from Tea Party groups in South Carolina


Speaking of recent changes in the Republican electorate, here's another explanation of Republicans' recent unwillingness to compromise in Congress

We discussed the proxy measures of Starbucks versus Wal-Marts in class . . . a similar analysis pits the presence of Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrels as predictors of election outcomes

On a different note, here's a long, but interesting, discussion of who has been a conservative throughout history and why

David Brooks asks "Where are the Liberals?"

In a move likely designed to preempt the Republican presidential candidate, President Obama is asking Congress to grant him the authority to streamline the government

In this well-researched, (though from a specific point of view, of course) piece, the Republican Party argues that these five polices enacted by Obama have been failures

Finally, you can submit a question to be asked at the CNN South Carolina debate