After the loss to Gingrich in South Carolina, Gingrich's poll numbers in Florida spiked. Then many in the GOP establishment began speaking out against Gingrich and Romney's campaign decided to attack Gingrich directly, and the poll numbers reversed. Gingrich hasn't given up, attacking Romney for his health care plan and moderate record in Massachusetts, but the numbers look bleak and February looks like it could be a good month for Romney. Meanwhile, Gingrich still leads in national polls.
Gingrich also made a few notable statements last week. The two that drew the most attention were his plan to form a colony on the moon by the end of his second term and his admission that, contrary to what he told Jon King while excoriating him at the second SC debate, his campaign did not actually offer witnesses to ABC to rebut his wife's claim.
The up and down movement in the polls likely reflects the Republican electorate's frustration with their choices, which was reflected by conservative columnist Bret Stephens' recent piece entitled "The GOP Deserves to Lose: That's what happens when you run with losers"
While "Super PAC" spending is dominating the Republican primary race, the candidates in what may be the highest profile senate race this fall (Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in MA) have signed an agreement not to allow super PAC ads.
The Economist takes an in-depth look at the American economy writing, among other things, about how we can raise the highest tax rates without doing too much damage
Here's a graphic detailing the usage of various words in the last ten State of the Union speeches and here is a fact check of the SOTU and the Republican response.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Links, 1-24-12
Last night's debate saw Romney more aggressively attacking Gingrich for his past activities, including accusations that Gingrich lobbied and had to resign as speaker. Unlike the SC debates, moderator Brian Williams asked the crowd to remain silent -- which Gingrich said he wouldn't "allow" in the future. Here are 5 things we learned from the debate.
Meanwhile, Gingrich's surge in the polls continues -- he's now the favorite to win in Florida and is ahead of Romney in the latest national polling.
Romney released his taxes from 2010, and estimated taxes from 2011, at midnight last night, as first reported by the Washington Post. In 2010, Romney paid taxes equal to 13.9% of his income (which exceeded $20 million).
Here's a look ahead to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight, which is expected to frame his argument for re-election.
Frank Bruni writes about Gingrich's rhetoric, arguing that he's currently proving wrong a strategist's maxim that "a politician could succeed with his zipper down, but not with his words unbridled".
Conservative columnist David Brooks takes both parties to task, arguing that we need to mix "More economic freedom combined with more social structure; more competition combined with more support" in a sort of "free-market socialism" that would be "libertarian in the capitalist sector and activist in the human capital sector".
Meanwhile, Gingrich's surge in the polls continues -- he's now the favorite to win in Florida and is ahead of Romney in the latest national polling.
Romney released his taxes from 2010, and estimated taxes from 2011, at midnight last night, as first reported by the Washington Post. In 2010, Romney paid taxes equal to 13.9% of his income (which exceeded $20 million).
Here's a look ahead to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight, which is expected to frame his argument for re-election.
Frank Bruni writes about Gingrich's rhetoric, arguing that he's currently proving wrong a strategist's maxim that "a politician could succeed with his zipper down, but not with his words unbridled".
Conservative columnist David Brooks takes both parties to task, arguing that we need to mix "More economic freedom combined with more social structure; more competition combined with more support" in a sort of "free-market socialism" that would be "libertarian in the capitalist sector and activist in the human capital sector".
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Links, 1-22-12
Newt Gingrich completed a stunning comeback last night and won the South Carolina primary by over 10 percentage points, raising fresh doubts about how the nomination will play out.
CNN lists five things we learned and has the result of a small poll of some SC political insiders.
One of the reasons Gingrich may have won (according to the exit polls) was that people perceived him as more electable. Polls of hypothetical general election match-ups say otherwise.
Before Wendsday's internet blackout, public statements by Congressmen/women were overwhelmingly supportive of SOPA and PIPA, but afterwards they were overwhelmingly negative
Mitt Romney called for the release of the records of Newt Gingrich's reprimand by the House, but the full report is already available online here. Meanwhile, Romney will now release his 2010 tax return on Tuesday.
Here's an interesting piece on why Apple, and other companies, have outsourced virtually all of their manufacturing to China and elsewhere.
CNN lists five things we learned and has the result of a small poll of some SC political insiders.
One of the reasons Gingrich may have won (according to the exit polls) was that people perceived him as more electable. Polls of hypothetical general election match-ups say otherwise.
Before Wendsday's internet blackout, public statements by Congressmen/women were overwhelmingly supportive of SOPA and PIPA, but afterwards they were overwhelmingly negative
Mitt Romney called for the release of the records of Newt Gingrich's reprimand by the House, but the full report is already available online here. Meanwhile, Romney will now release his 2010 tax return on Tuesday.
Here's an interesting piece on why Apple, and other companies, have outsourced virtually all of their manufacturing to China and elsewhere.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Links, 1-19-12
A couple of days ago, it looked like Mitt Romney was going to cruise to victory in the Republican primaries, but now they're in a bit more flux. First, after re-checking the ballots, Rick Santorum was declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. Then, Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich.
A few minutes later, ABC News announced they would air an interview with Gingrich's second wife, in which she later alleged that he asked to have an open marriage shortly after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis -- an allegation that led to an explosive response from Gingrich to lead off tonight's Republican debate. Meanwhile, Gingrich and Romney are tied in the latest 538 South Carolina primary projections.
Mitt Romney ruffled some feathers when stated that he paid only about 15% in federal income taxes despite his vast wealth, but David Leonhardt points out that even though most Americans think they pay more than 15% in federal income taxes, only about 1/3 actually do.
Ron Paul returned to Congress to cast a symbolic vote against raising the debt ceiling, and CNN spoke to many of his colleagues -- a number of whom say Paul "doesn't have many fans in Congress"
Nate Silver examines some survey results and points out that there's no much evidence that the majority of Republican primary voters want "anybody but Romney"
A few minutes later, ABC News announced they would air an interview with Gingrich's second wife, in which she later alleged that he asked to have an open marriage shortly after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis -- an allegation that led to an explosive response from Gingrich to lead off tonight's Republican debate. Meanwhile, Gingrich and Romney are tied in the latest 538 South Carolina primary projections.
Mitt Romney ruffled some feathers when stated that he paid only about 15% in federal income taxes despite his vast wealth, but David Leonhardt points out that even though most Americans think they pay more than 15% in federal income taxes, only about 1/3 actually do.
Ron Paul returned to Congress to cast a symbolic vote against raising the debt ceiling, and CNN spoke to many of his colleagues -- a number of whom say Paul "doesn't have many fans in Congress"
Nate Silver examines some survey results and points out that there's no much evidence that the majority of Republican primary voters want "anybody but Romney"
Monday, January 16, 2012
Politics Links, 1-16-12
A New York Times news analysis discusses some new books on the Tea Party and concludes that this is the first insurgency within the Republican Party not to be led by insiders. The article notes that despite the influence of Tea Party groups, Romney seems to be on the cusp of winning.
In order to prevent this from happening, a group of evangelical leaders met on Saturday and decided to band together to support Rick Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.
Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman was endorsed by the largest newspaper in South Carolina yesterday morning . . . and then decided to drop out of the race later that day.
While polls indicate that a Romney victory may be imminent, most Republican primary voters still know little about the candidates.
But you don't have to be like everybody else: here's a comparison of the tax plans laid out by the candidates so far.
Here's what to expect from Tea Party groups in South Carolina
Speaking of recent changes in the Republican electorate, here's another explanation of Republicans' recent unwillingness to compromise in Congress
We discussed the proxy measures of Starbucks versus Wal-Marts in class . . . a similar analysis pits the presence of Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrels as predictors of election outcomes
On a different note, here's a long, but interesting, discussion of who has been a conservative throughout history and why
David Brooks asks "Where are the Liberals?"
In a move likely designed to preempt the Republican presidential candidate, President Obama is asking Congress to grant him the authority to streamline the government
In this well-researched, (though from a specific point of view, of course) piece, the Republican Party argues that these five polices enacted by Obama have been failures
Finally, you can submit a question to be asked at the CNN South Carolina debate
In order to prevent this from happening, a group of evangelical leaders met on Saturday and decided to band together to support Rick Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.
Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman was endorsed by the largest newspaper in South Carolina yesterday morning . . . and then decided to drop out of the race later that day.
While polls indicate that a Romney victory may be imminent, most Republican primary voters still know little about the candidates.
But you don't have to be like everybody else: here's a comparison of the tax plans laid out by the candidates so far.
Here's what to expect from Tea Party groups in South Carolina
Speaking of recent changes in the Republican electorate, here's another explanation of Republicans' recent unwillingness to compromise in Congress
We discussed the proxy measures of Starbucks versus Wal-Marts in class . . . a similar analysis pits the presence of Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrels as predictors of election outcomes
On a different note, here's a long, but interesting, discussion of who has been a conservative throughout history and why
David Brooks asks "Where are the Liberals?"
In a move likely designed to preempt the Republican presidential candidate, President Obama is asking Congress to grant him the authority to streamline the government
In this well-researched, (though from a specific point of view, of course) piece, the Republican Party argues that these five polices enacted by Obama have been failures
Finally, you can submit a question to be asked at the CNN South Carolina debate
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