Election
The Electoral Map - Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com:
9 Swing States, Critical to Presidential Race, Are Mixed Lot - NYTimes.com
Politics
Obama’s Watershed Move on Gay Marriage - NYTimes.com
Environment
How Green Are Electric Cars? Depends on Where You Plug In - NYTimes.com
-includes this map of the amount of greenhouse gases (in mpg equivalent) released by driving an electric car in various cities across the country
U.S. Slaps Tariffs on Chinese Solar Panels - NYTimes.com
-Good for manufacturers, but bad for installers and consumers
Economics
Coming - ‘Taxmageddon’ - NYTimes.com
-excellent graph of tax rates by income percentile from 1960-2004
Easy Useless Economics - NYTimes.com
-Krugman argues that a lack of jobs, not debt, is our biggest economic problem
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States Most Upwardly Mobile - NYTimes.com
-A new report finds that NY, NJ, and MD had the most upward mobility over the past 10 years while LA, OK, and SC had the least
Free exchange: Zero-sum debate | The Economist
"Economists are rethinking the idea that capital should not be taxed"
Health
Do We Need More Advice About Eating Well? - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com
Medicare To Tie Doctors' Pay To Quality, Cost Of Care - Kaiser Health News
-here's a related sample physician feedback form on their use of patient services and the associated costs
Why French Parents Are Superior (in One Way) - NYTimes.com
-"I think North American parenting at its best is, largely, better for kids. But there is one exception: food."
Nashville Mobile Market's message spreads | The Tennessean | tennessean.com
Food Deserts and Obesity Role Challenged - NYTimes.com
Childhood Obesity
-the official HHS report
Study Finds Wide Variations in Salt Content of Fast Food - ABC News
-the same menu items at the same chains contain more salt in the US
A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity - NYTimes.com
-Mathematicians say the main reason obesity has risen is that food is cheaper and more plentiful
Education
Mayor Dean to be called to testify in Metro schools redistricting trial | The Tennessean | tennessean.com
How ‘early warning systems’ are keeping kids in school - The Answer Sheet - The Washington Post
Poverty
The Power of Nursing - NYTimes.com
-discusses the remarkable results of the Nurse-Family Partnership program and the intermittently successful attempts to replicate it
Poor girls aren't condemned to pregnancy, poverty - CNN.com
A new study finds that pregnant teenagers who miscarry don't end up any better off than those who give birth, but one commentator responds that doesn't mean teen pregnancy doesn't hurt girls
Other
Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends, 2010 | Pew Hispanic Center
-the population of unauthorized immigrants declined from 2007 to 2010
Rapid Construction Techniques Transform Infrastructure Repair - NYTimes.com
-after the MN bridge collapse (focusing event), MA and other states began examining their own bridges more closely, but the also didn't want to close down roads for months or years at a time . . . the solution in some areas are pre-fabricated bridges/roads that can often be installed in one weekend
Life after College
What They Don't Tell You at Graduation - WSJ.com
by Charles Wheelan (hint: that name should ring a bell)
The Downside of Cohabiting Before Marriage - NYTimes.com
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Links, 4-11-12
Rick Santorum has dropped out of the race, only a few days after Gingrich declared that Romney was "conservative enough" to win the Republican nomination.
President Obama has gone on the offensive against Paul Ryan's budget plan (calling it "thinly veiled social Dawinism") and is trying to tie Mitt Romney to the plan. The Economist wonders whether that's a winning strategy.
Nine major physicians' groups released a report identifying 45 tests and procedures as overused and unproven. Accountable Care Organizations, like this one in NJ, are being formed to try and coordinate care and cut down on unnecessary procedures while increasing quality of care.
Here's an interesting snapshot of which countries spend the most on groceries
The first "World Happiness Report," which examines what makes people happy in different places, was released. Here are some of the takeaway points. The heading summarizes these as "be wealthy, married, and have a job," but there are some twists -- including this one about employment:
President Obama has gone on the offensive against Paul Ryan's budget plan (calling it "thinly veiled social Dawinism") and is trying to tie Mitt Romney to the plan. The Economist wonders whether that's a winning strategy.
Nine major physicians' groups released a report identifying 45 tests and procedures as overused and unproven. Accountable Care Organizations, like this one in NJ, are being formed to try and coordinate care and cut down on unnecessary procedures while increasing quality of care.
Here's an interesting snapshot of which countries spend the most on groceries
The first "World Happiness Report," which examines what makes people happy in different places, was released. Here are some of the takeaway points. The heading summarizes these as "be wealthy, married, and have a job," but there are some twists -- including this one about employment:
Unemployment obviously reduces happiness, but not because of what you may think. It’s not the loss of income, but the loss of things like self-esteem and workplace social life that lead to a drop in happiness. High unemployment rates can trigger unhappiness even in the employed, who suddenly become fearful of losing their jobs. According to the study, even low-quality jobs yield more satisfaction than being unemployed.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
More Poverty Policy Links, 4-8-12
A front page article in the NY Times today explores the reactions of states and individuals to welfare reform. The article interviews single mothers who've come up with a wide range of solutions after their benefits have been cut off, discusses what states have done with extra money from their block grants after reducing the rolls, and asks scholars with various viewpoints whether the law has helped or hurt. Here's some background on how the article was written and the difficulty of measuring poverty (particularly interesting is the divergence between reported income and reported spending).
One popular talking about is the "culture of poverty". The New York Times featured a piece not too long ago exploring a resurgence of this notion, but from a different point of view. Here's some history on how the term got started. An article for teachers and school officials calls the old view a "myth" and suggests some ways to overcome it.
Lastly, new data indicate that more children are living in high-poverty areas -- that concentrated poverty may be increasing.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Poverty & Policy Links, 4-6-12
A new measure of poverty has been developed. Here's the story behind the new measure of poverty that's being rolled out and some background on how the calculations in the article were made. The Economist agrees that the new measure is an improvement.
PBS reports on Dan Ariely's study of American opinions on wealth inequality in which Americans consistently underrated the amount of inequality in our country. And here's Timothy Noah's essay on "why everyone overestimates American equality of opportunity". Meanwhile, a recent analysis finds that the only major difference in mobility between the US and other developed nations is that fewer lower-income people become middle-income.
A new investigation of government programs finds that many people who oppose welfare and consider themselves self-sufficient Middle Class Americans accept a wide range of government aid. Indeed, only 32% of entitlement benefits go to families in the bottom quintile of the income distribution.
Social entrepreneur David Bornstein writes that anti-poverty programs should focus on developing people's capabilities and other "soft" skills rather than measures of "well-being". Here are some examples of these types of programs.
Mixed-income housing is being implemented with mixed success in Pittsburgh.
Nick Kristof writes about the impact of "toxic stress" on students
Here's the story of a young, white, homeless couple who defy stereotypes
Here's The Daily Show's take on recent rhetoric surrounding poverty
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Links, 4-4-12
The discussion in the Supreme Court last week prompted outrage among many liberal commentators:
Steven Pearlstein writes that the questions about requiring citizens to eat broccoli or buy cell phones misunderstand the issue because the power to tax, regulate, or mandate anything (e.g. airbags) always runs the risk of taxing, regulating, or mandating "stupidly".
Paul Begala writes that "your health care is now in the hands of the right-wing majority of the Supreme Court" and writes that
And Supreme Court expert Jeffrey Toobin writes that the characterization of the health care mandate as "unprecedented" by Anthony Kennedy and others is a "misperception" on all levels and that Congress has had sole authority to determine how to implement the Commerce Clause the last 75 years.
Politico wonders what's next for health care if the mandate is struck down, with some worrying that it might pave the way for the repeal of environmental and labor laws.
The Economist wonders whether there are still Conservatives who oppose the health care law but who believe it's constitutional or if everybody has conflated good/bad with constitutional/unconstitutional.
Nate Silver explores whether the current Supreme Court is the most conservative in modern history
President Obama went after the GOP budget designed by Paul Ryan, calling it a "radical vision"
60 Minutes reported Sunday on new research finding that sugar is toxic and can lead to heart disease and cancer independent of its effects on weight gain.
Many of you wrote about early childhood education in your ed policy papers. Here's a brief from University of Chicago's Nobel Prize winning James Heckman on the importance of investment in young children.
A new report argues that while more Americans obtaining college degrees, the numbers haven't increased fast enough to keep up with the demands of the private sector. The US now ranks 16th in the world in percentage of adults with a college degree.
With a Romney nomination (Romination?) looking more and more likely, the Washington Post says to let the veepstakes begin and explores ten of the most likely nominees
Utah's Republican Attorney General is pushing for a slightly less confrontational crackdown on illegal immigration, including allowing guest worker visas.
Steven Pearlstein writes that the questions about requiring citizens to eat broccoli or buy cell phones misunderstand the issue because the power to tax, regulate, or mandate anything (e.g. airbags) always runs the risk of taxing, regulating, or mandating "stupidly".
Paul Begala writes that "your health care is now in the hands of the right-wing majority of the Supreme Court" and writes that
The oral arguments on the Affordable Care Act give us very little reason to have faith in the wisdom of the court. Some of the justices came off as smug, arrogant, and frighteningly detached from the realities of everyday life in America
And Supreme Court expert Jeffrey Toobin writes that the characterization of the health care mandate as "unprecedented" by Anthony Kennedy and others is a "misperception" on all levels and that Congress has had sole authority to determine how to implement the Commerce Clause the last 75 years.
For example, the Justices had no trouble upholding the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which used the clause to mandate the integration of hotels and restaurants. “It may be argued that Congress could have pursued other methods to eliminate the obstructions it found in interstate commerce caused by racial discrimination,” Justice Tom C. Clark wrote, for his unanimous brethren. “But this is a matter of policy that rests entirely with the Congress, not with the courts. How obstructions in commerce may be removed—what means are to be employed—is within the sound and exclusive discretion of the Congress.” In other words, Justice Kennedy had it backward. The “heavy burden” is not on the defenders of the law but on its challengers. Acts of Congress, like the health-care law, are presumed to be constitutional, and it is—or should be—a grave and unusual step for unelected, unaccountable, life-tenured judges to overrule the work of the democratically elected branches of government.
Politico wonders what's next for health care if the mandate is struck down, with some worrying that it might pave the way for the repeal of environmental and labor laws.
The Economist wonders whether there are still Conservatives who oppose the health care law but who believe it's constitutional or if everybody has conflated good/bad with constitutional/unconstitutional.
Nate Silver explores whether the current Supreme Court is the most conservative in modern history
President Obama went after the GOP budget designed by Paul Ryan, calling it a "radical vision"
60 Minutes reported Sunday on new research finding that sugar is toxic and can lead to heart disease and cancer independent of its effects on weight gain.
Many of you wrote about early childhood education in your ed policy papers. Here's a brief from University of Chicago's Nobel Prize winning James Heckman on the importance of investment in young children.
A new report argues that while more Americans obtaining college degrees, the numbers haven't increased fast enough to keep up with the demands of the private sector. The US now ranks 16th in the world in percentage of adults with a college degree.
With a Romney nomination (Romination?) looking more and more likely, the Washington Post says to let the veepstakes begin and explores ten of the most likely nominees
Utah's Republican Attorney General is pushing for a slightly less confrontational crackdown on illegal immigration, including allowing guest worker visas.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Links, 3-28-12
Here's an overview of what the Supreme Court will hear about health care this week. The hearings represent a "moment of truth" for health care reform. Among other things, the court will decide what parts of the health care law, if any, can stand if the mandate is unconstitutional. The federal government is arguing that they cannot require insurers to accept all applicants or cover pre-existing conditions without the mandate. Here's an update on what's happened the past two days.
In other health news, hospitals and other medical providers charge different users and insurers vastly different amounts for the same procedures.
Romney may be the consensus Republican candidate now, but that doesn't mean everybody is okay with that. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Romney needs to check his watch from time to time and realize "it is 2012, not the mid-1970s". And Rick Santorum said that Romney was the "worst Republican in the country to put up against Barack Obama" on the issue of health care.
Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, is scaling back his campaign -- firing one-third of his staff and replacing his campaign manager
The Economist reports that nudges are catching on around the world.
Climatologists report that the Earth is on the brink of crossing a tipping point past which global warming will be irreversible.
The electric car seems to be losing steam.
In other health news, hospitals and other medical providers charge different users and insurers vastly different amounts for the same procedures.
Romney may be the consensus Republican candidate now, but that doesn't mean everybody is okay with that. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Romney needs to check his watch from time to time and realize "it is 2012, not the mid-1970s". And Rick Santorum said that Romney was the "worst Republican in the country to put up against Barack Obama" on the issue of health care.
Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, is scaling back his campaign -- firing one-third of his staff and replacing his campaign manager
The Economist reports that nudges are catching on around the world.
Climatologists report that the Earth is on the brink of crossing a tipping point past which global warming will be irreversible.
The electric car seems to be losing steam.
THE future would appear bright for the electric car. Gasoline prices are high. The government is spending billions on battery technology. Auto companies are preparing to roll out a dozen new electrified models. Concern is growing about the climate impacts of burning oil. And tough new fuel economy standards are looming.
Yet the state of the electric car is dismal, the victim of hyped expectations, technological flops, high costs and a hostile political climate. General Motors has temporarily suspended production of the plug-in electric Chevy Volt because of low sales. Nissan’s all-electric Leaf is struggling in the market. A number of start-up electric vehicle and battery companies have folded. And the federal government has slowed its multibillion-dollar program of support for advanced technology vehicles in the face of market setbacks and heavy political criticism.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
More Ed Policy Links, 3-27-12
Here's a good summary of efforts by the federal government to push schools toward using merit pay as part of RTTP. According to the author of a new book on the psychology of motivation, teacher merit pay "doesn't work." Here's a summary of the results of the Nashville merit pay experiment that support his contention. Meanwhile, a less-rigorous study in Arkansas found some positive returns to merit pay, but also found teachers reporting they didn't work harder.
Richard Rothstein writes that "keeping children in good health" must be part of our school reform efforts. Apparently parents agree: after funding cuts, parents in some districts in California have paid for physical education out of their own pockets.
A new report on Charter Management Organizations asserts that the most successful charter management organizations focus heavily setting high expectations for student behavior and intensively coaching and monitoring students.
A recent study finds that attending a K-8 school instead of a middle school raises students' scores
Paul Peterson argues that low family income is "not a major reason for poor student achievement"
Washington Post education reporter Jay Mathews writes that history suggests that too many people are not attending college, contrary to Rick Santorum's claims.
The high school graduation rate in the US rose 3.5 percentage points, to 75%, from 2001 to 2009. Wisconsin is the only state above the goal of 90% and Nevada saw a 15 percentage point decrease to 56% as high schoolers dropped out to work on the Las Vegas strip.
A survey of teachers finds that fewer than one-third of teachers believes longer school days/years or merit pay will raise student achievement while 84% believe "increased family involvement and support" would make a difference.
Experts recently debated whether college should be for everyone.
A teacher writes that current measurements of teaching ability are all wrong.
The POSSE Foundation recruits low-income students and coaches them on how to make it through college. The results is that POSSE students are more likely to graduate from college than peers who score much on higher on standardized tests.
In a new feature, Paul Tough asks whether the secret to success is learning how to deal with failure.
A pediatrician writes that our children are chronically sleep deprived (69% get "insufficient" sleep on school nights and only 7.6% sleep the optimal amount) and argues that the lack of sleep is negatively impacting our kids in a variety of ways.
Richard Rothstein writes that "keeping children in good health" must be part of our school reform efforts. Apparently parents agree: after funding cuts, parents in some districts in California have paid for physical education out of their own pockets.
A new report on Charter Management Organizations asserts that the most successful charter management organizations focus heavily setting high expectations for student behavior and intensively coaching and monitoring students.
A recent study finds that attending a K-8 school instead of a middle school raises students' scores
Paul Peterson argues that low family income is "not a major reason for poor student achievement"
Washington Post education reporter Jay Mathews writes that history suggests that too many people are not attending college, contrary to Rick Santorum's claims.
The high school graduation rate in the US rose 3.5 percentage points, to 75%, from 2001 to 2009. Wisconsin is the only state above the goal of 90% and Nevada saw a 15 percentage point decrease to 56% as high schoolers dropped out to work on the Las Vegas strip.
A survey of teachers finds that fewer than one-third of teachers believes longer school days/years or merit pay will raise student achievement while 84% believe "increased family involvement and support" would make a difference.
Experts recently debated whether college should be for everyone.
A teacher writes that current measurements of teaching ability are all wrong.
The POSSE Foundation recruits low-income students and coaches them on how to make it through college. The results is that POSSE students are more likely to graduate from college than peers who score much on higher on standardized tests.
In a new feature, Paul Tough asks whether the secret to success is learning how to deal with failure.
A pediatrician writes that our children are chronically sleep deprived (69% get "insufficient" sleep on school nights and only 7.6% sleep the optimal amount) and argues that the lack of sleep is negatively impacting our kids in a variety of ways.
This chronic sleep deprivation is not without consequences. Sleep restriction in children has been linked to daytime sleepiness, inattention, poor motivation, memory problems, increased irritability, decreased socialization, low self-esteem, increased anxiety and depression, and suicidal behaviors.
Many of the prototypical traits of modern adolescence could just as easily be attributed to sleep deprivation as to raging hormones. Not surprisingly, there is further evidence (though limited) that these sleep deprivation problems with attention, memory consolidation, motivation, etc., contribute to overall lower grades and standardized test scores.
Finally, physical problems have been linked to chronic sleep restriction including: increased auto accidents, impaired immune function and obesity.
In 1997, seven high schools in the Minneapolis Public School District shifted their school start times from 7:15 a.m. to 8:40 a.m. In the two years following this change, data showed improved attendance, fewer depressive symptoms, less daytime sleepiness, increased student calmness in the cafeteria and hallways, fewer school counselor and nurse visits, and fewer disciplinary referrals.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Education Policy Links, 3-25-12
Education Week examines the growing focus on the role of poverty in education. As does the NY Times.
Here's an excellent, information-dense piece on the influence of income on education and the influence of education on future earnings.
Teach For America founder Wendy Kopp pens "In Defense of Optimism" and education historian and NYU professor Diance Ravitch, "In Defense of Facing Reality" -- they argue mainly over whether programs like TFA can overcome the obstacles faced by children living in poverty.
A new study finds that "preschool attendance may help to reduce achievement gaps"
Here's an interview with prominent education writer Lisa Delpit on "educating other people's children"
David Brooks, long an advocate of "no excuses" charter schools that eschew teachers' unions, writes about the good things happening at a local school that emphasizes relationships and uses teams of 4 teachers to work with 60 kids per classroom.
Education reporter Alexander Russo writes that those who argue for charters and merit pay and those who argue for social reform and fixing poverty are becoming more polarized.
A new survey of teachers finds job satisfaction plummeting.
New accountability measures for Head Start programs are, according to Sara Mead, making it obvious that there's a lack of quality providers.
Here's an excellent, information-dense piece on the influence of income on education and the influence of education on future earnings.
Teach For America founder Wendy Kopp pens "In Defense of Optimism" and education historian and NYU professor Diance Ravitch, "In Defense of Facing Reality" -- they argue mainly over whether programs like TFA can overcome the obstacles faced by children living in poverty.
A new study finds that "preschool attendance may help to reduce achievement gaps"
Here's an interview with prominent education writer Lisa Delpit on "educating other people's children"
David Brooks, long an advocate of "no excuses" charter schools that eschew teachers' unions, writes about the good things happening at a local school that emphasizes relationships and uses teams of 4 teachers to work with 60 kids per classroom.
The New American Academy has two big advantages as a reform model. First, instead of running against the education establishment, it grows out of it and is being embraced by the teachers’ unions and the education schools. If it works, it can spread faster.A new study finds that college freshman are not learning how to critically analyze the sources they cite. Students "don't know how to do anything but grab a few sentences and go," writes one of the study's authors.
Second, it does a tremendous job of nurturing relationships. Since people learn from people they love, education is fundamentally about the relationship between a teacher and student. By insisting on constant informal contact and by preserving that contact year after year, The New American Academy has the potential to create richer, mentorlike or even familylike relationships for students who are not rich in those things.
Education reporter Alexander Russo writes that those who argue for charters and merit pay and those who argue for social reform and fixing poverty are becoming more polarized.
There's no one I can think of who's acceptable to both sides. And the absence of a unifying figure -- and some sort of a joint rallying cry -- is a problem that most of those currently engaged in battle don't seem to appreciate. This is in large part because both sides of the fight seem to think that they're winning.Leonie Haimson, executive director of the nonprofit Class Size Matters argues that -- you guessed it -- class size matters.
A new survey of teachers finds job satisfaction plummeting.
New accountability measures for Head Start programs are, according to Sara Mead, making it obvious that there's a lack of quality providers.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Links, 3-23-12
Romney was basking in the glow of his victory in Illinois and endorsement by Jeb Bush when one of his aides said that Romney would be like an "etch-a-sketch" for the general election -- that he could start over in an effort to win over moderate voters. Conservatives pounced on the comments, with Rick Santorum handing out etch-a-sketches to media at a press conference, to declare the Romney was flip-flopping again.
In a 5-4 decision, with Kennedy siding with the four liberal justices, the Supreme Court declared that the legal system should have more oversight over plea bargains and that lawyers must give competent advice to the clients they defend, opening the door for claims of incompetent representation after plea bargains. One law scholar called it "the single greatest revolution in the criminal justice system" in the past 50 years.
Economist Christine Romer discusses recently published researching finding that while tax raises and cuts incentive people to work less and more, that the incentive is quite small and nowhere near enough to boost tax revenue through tax cuts or reduce tax revenue through tax increases.
Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) has called a hearing to investigate bounties in professional sports in the wake of the Saints scandal
Environmental Links
A new report ranks Nashville 50th of 51 large cities in affordability of transportation. Because of the sprawl and lack of public transit, metro Nashville residents spend about 29% of their income on commuting.
In an editorial, the NY Times points out that though gas prices have risen, the US now produces more oil and imports less than at any time in the past 10 years.
In an online debate over energy efficient products, an economist from the libertarian Cato Institute argues that we should "increase fossil fuel prices enough through taxation to account for [negative externalities]"
In the first three years of Obama's administration, real per-capita government spending has increased at a lower rate than all but one of the last six Presidents (Clinton).
President Obama yesterday declared his support for expedited construction of the Southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline, but not the Northern portion.
Oil and gas companies are taking advantage of new finds in the Marcellus Shale formation to build plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio that will produce CNG for cars.
In a 5-4 decision, with Kennedy siding with the four liberal justices, the Supreme Court declared that the legal system should have more oversight over plea bargains and that lawyers must give competent advice to the clients they defend, opening the door for claims of incompetent representation after plea bargains. One law scholar called it "the single greatest revolution in the criminal justice system" in the past 50 years.
Economist Christine Romer discusses recently published researching finding that while tax raises and cuts incentive people to work less and more, that the incentive is quite small and nowhere near enough to boost tax revenue through tax cuts or reduce tax revenue through tax increases.
Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) has called a hearing to investigate bounties in professional sports in the wake of the Saints scandal
Environmental Links
A new report ranks Nashville 50th of 51 large cities in affordability of transportation. Because of the sprawl and lack of public transit, metro Nashville residents spend about 29% of their income on commuting.
In an editorial, the NY Times points out that though gas prices have risen, the US now produces more oil and imports less than at any time in the past 10 years.
In an online debate over energy efficient products, an economist from the libertarian Cato Institute argues that we should "increase fossil fuel prices enough through taxation to account for [negative externalities]"
In the first three years of Obama's administration, real per-capita government spending has increased at a lower rate than all but one of the last six Presidents (Clinton).
President Obama yesterday declared his support for expedited construction of the Southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline, but not the Northern portion.
Oil and gas companies are taking advantage of new finds in the Marcellus Shale formation to build plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio that will produce CNG for cars.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
More Health and Health Care Links
Here's the chart examining the 100+ causes of obesity that we discussed in class
A new study at convenience stores in low-income Baltimore neighborhoods posted the caloric values of soft drinks in various ways. Posting absolute caloric count and percentage of recommended daily intake had no statistically significant effect on consumption, but posting the physical activity equivalent of the calories resulted in only half as many youths buying soft drinks.
NYT health writer Mark Bittman asks the authors of a new book if a calorie is really a calorie. Their answer is that it is for weight loss purposes (eating 1500 calories of junk food will result in a lower weight than eating 1600 calories of healthy food every day, assuming no differences in behavior), but that a.) the types of foods you eat affect your behavior (it's easier to consume 500 calories of Coke than of apples); and b.) calories are not equal for overall health. Some policy options are discussed.
The LA Times recounts the history of conservative proposals to mandate health insurance. Here's a detailed history of conservative proposals both including and not including a mandate.
We briefly discussed the immense health care costs of the last few months of one's life in class. Here's a Doctor's reflection on why we have such a difficult time letting loved ones die. Among other explanations, he argues that urbanization has shielded Americans from seeing death in nature and that
Ezekiel Emanuel discusses various plans to reduce growth in Medicare spending.
To solve the contraceptive debate, Sally Kalson argues that guys should stop having sex instead of focusing on what women are doing.
Paul Krugman says "Hurray for Health Reform" (any of these arguments sound familiar?):
Meanwhile, Tyler Cowen argues that the mandate is a bad idea -- in part because it may lead to Americans continually demanding higher subsidies and politicians and interest groups will keep creating more expensive health plans as minimum coverage.
And a WSJ journal op-ed argues for dropping the health insurance mandate because adverse selection will happen anyway and there are other ways to prevent consumers from gaming the system.
House Republicans released a new budget that proposes changing Medicare from a publicly run insurance program to a flat subsidy to be used by senior citizens to purchase private health insurance.
Medicare announced last year that they would start paying for weight loss programs, so now -- much like pharmaceutical companies -- various weight loss programs are advocating that doctors refer patients to them.
Health insurance companies and other firms are beginning to try to make medical pricing more transparent by proving customers with the costs of a procedure at various facilities. Progress has been slow.
A NYT editorial argues that reducing Medicare reimbursements for doctors has resulted in doctors performing more tests and procedures, increasing waste. They recommend cutting reimbursement rates only for specialists, and particularly for procedures deemed overused and wasteful.
A new study at convenience stores in low-income Baltimore neighborhoods posted the caloric values of soft drinks in various ways. Posting absolute caloric count and percentage of recommended daily intake had no statistically significant effect on consumption, but posting the physical activity equivalent of the calories resulted in only half as many youths buying soft drinks.
NYT health writer Mark Bittman asks the authors of a new book if a calorie is really a calorie. Their answer is that it is for weight loss purposes (eating 1500 calories of junk food will result in a lower weight than eating 1600 calories of healthy food every day, assuming no differences in behavior), but that a.) the types of foods you eat affect your behavior (it's easier to consume 500 calories of Coke than of apples); and b.) calories are not equal for overall health. Some policy options are discussed.
The LA Times recounts the history of conservative proposals to mandate health insurance. Here's a detailed history of conservative proposals both including and not including a mandate.
We briefly discussed the immense health care costs of the last few months of one's life in class. Here's a Doctor's reflection on why we have such a difficult time letting loved ones die. Among other explanations, he argues that urbanization has shielded Americans from seeing death in nature and that
Rising affluence has allowed us to isolate senescence. Before nursing homes, assisted-living centers and in-home nurses, grandparents, their children and their grandchildren were often living under the same roof, where everyone's struggles were plain to see. In 1850, 70 percent of white elderly adults lived with their children. Today, that figure is only 16 percent. Sequestering our elderly keeps most of us from knowing what it's like to grow old.
Ezekiel Emanuel discusses various plans to reduce growth in Medicare spending.
To solve the contraceptive debate, Sally Kalson argues that guys should stop having sex instead of focusing on what women are doing.
Paul Krugman says "Hurray for Health Reform" (any of these arguments sound familiar?):
The fact is that individual health insurance, as currently constituted, just doesn’t work. If insurers are left free to deny coverage at will — as they are in, say, California — they offer cheap policies to the young and healthy (and try to yank coverage if you get sick) but refuse to cover anyone likely to need expensive care. Yet simply requiring that insurers cover people with pre-existing conditions, as in New York, doesn’t work either: premiums are sky-high because only the sick buy insurance.
The solution — originally proposed, believe it or not, by analysts at the ultra-right-wing Heritage Foundation — is a three-legged stool of regulation and subsidies. As in New York, insurers are required to cover everyone; in return, everyone is required to buy insurance, so that healthy as well as sick people are in the risk pool. Finally, subsidies make those mandated insurance purchases affordable for lower-income families.
Meanwhile, Tyler Cowen argues that the mandate is a bad idea -- in part because it may lead to Americans continually demanding higher subsidies and politicians and interest groups will keep creating more expensive health plans as minimum coverage.
And a WSJ journal op-ed argues for dropping the health insurance mandate because adverse selection will happen anyway and there are other ways to prevent consumers from gaming the system.
House Republicans released a new budget that proposes changing Medicare from a publicly run insurance program to a flat subsidy to be used by senior citizens to purchase private health insurance.
Medicare announced last year that they would start paying for weight loss programs, so now -- much like pharmaceutical companies -- various weight loss programs are advocating that doctors refer patients to them.
Health insurance companies and other firms are beginning to try to make medical pricing more transparent by proving customers with the costs of a procedure at various facilities. Progress has been slow.
A NYT editorial argues that reducing Medicare reimbursements for doctors has resulted in doctors performing more tests and procedures, increasing waste. They recommend cutting reimbursement rates only for specialists, and particularly for procedures deemed overused and wasteful.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Health Care Links
Here's an interesting piece by former Bush writer David Frum, who argues that Health Care is the Republican Party's Waterloo (he was subsequently let go by the American Enterprise Institute).
Here's the latest on Accountable Care Organizations. And here's a brief overview and a brief on the issue
Here's a WSJ op-ed arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional. Here's one economist's explanation why people can't fire their insurance companies like Mitt Romney would like them to. And here's another discussion of adverse risk selection, health insurance, and used car sales
Here's a thorough breakdown of how America's health spending compares to other countries and what we can do about it. Here's a shorter news article comparing costs in the US to other countries with some nifty charts. And here's one economist's take on what the US can learn from other countries' health care systems
Here's more on the history of public responses to the expansion of the social safety net
Here's a conservative call for universal access to health care
Finally, here's a compilation of a lot of other articles on health policy issues
Here's the latest on Accountable Care Organizations. And here's a brief overview and a brief on the issue
Here's a WSJ op-ed arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional. Here's one economist's explanation why people can't fire their insurance companies like Mitt Romney would like them to. And here's another discussion of adverse risk selection, health insurance, and used car sales
Here's a thorough breakdown of how America's health spending compares to other countries and what we can do about it. Here's a shorter news article comparing costs in the US to other countries with some nifty charts. And here's one economist's take on what the US can learn from other countries' health care systems
Here's more on the history of public responses to the expansion of the social safety net
Here's a conservative call for universal access to health care
Finally, here's a compilation of a lot of other articles on health policy issues
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Election Update, 3-13-12
The big story of the night is that Rick Santorum won primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi despite trailing in polls in both states. More accurate than the polls were predictions based on demography -- the results continued to be starkly different by geographic region.
The obvious questions regarding tonight's results are: 1.) Will Gingrich drop out now?; and 2.) Does Santorum actually have a chance against Romney?
It's too early for a definitive answer to either, but both look far more likely than they did just a few hours ago. Romney has huge delegate, organizational, and financial advantages, but no longer looks that much more electable than Romney. In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with Obama, Santorum loses by an average of 6 points while Romney loses by an average of 3.
Exit polls in both states indicated that voters who wanted the most conservative candidate tended to vote for Santorum while those who wanted the most electable candidate tended to vote for Romney (50 and 52% of the voters in Mississippi and Alabama said that Romney's positions were "not conservative enough" while 49 and 46% said Romney was most likely to defeat Obama).
The split over electability versus conservativeness may partially explain why former first lady Barbara Bush recently said that this is "the worst campaign I've ever seen in my life . . . I hate the fact that people think 'compromise' is a dirty word".
Meanwhile, President Obama may be more vulnerable in November than many thought just a few weeks ago. The latest tracking polls reveal a drop in his approval ratings, with the NYT/CBS polls reporting just a 41% approval rate. The same poll has Obama up only 4 points in a hypothetical match-up with Santorum.
And it could always get worse, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. The Economist writes that "More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth" but "if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery".
The obvious questions regarding tonight's results are: 1.) Will Gingrich drop out now?; and 2.) Does Santorum actually have a chance against Romney?
It's too early for a definitive answer to either, but both look far more likely than they did just a few hours ago. Romney has huge delegate, organizational, and financial advantages, but no longer looks that much more electable than Romney. In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with Obama, Santorum loses by an average of 6 points while Romney loses by an average of 3.
Exit polls in both states indicated that voters who wanted the most conservative candidate tended to vote for Santorum while those who wanted the most electable candidate tended to vote for Romney (50 and 52% of the voters in Mississippi and Alabama said that Romney's positions were "not conservative enough" while 49 and 46% said Romney was most likely to defeat Obama).
The split over electability versus conservativeness may partially explain why former first lady Barbara Bush recently said that this is "the worst campaign I've ever seen in my life . . . I hate the fact that people think 'compromise' is a dirty word".
Meanwhile, President Obama may be more vulnerable in November than many thought just a few weeks ago. The latest tracking polls reveal a drop in his approval ratings, with the NYT/CBS polls reporting just a 41% approval rate. The same poll has Obama up only 4 points in a hypothetical match-up with Santorum.
And it could always get worse, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. The Economist writes that "More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth" but "if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery".
Monday, March 12, 2012
Health Links, 3-12-12
The Tennessean is currently soliciting readers' ideas on how to combat childhood obesity.
School lunches have been the subject of recent intense fights between health advocates on one side and industry lobbyists and politicians from states that grow and produce less healthy foods on the other.
Despite recent controversy, it's still allowed in school lunches, and 70% of ground beef in the US contains what the meat industry refers to as "lean, finely textured beef" and what critics refer to as "pink slime," which is made mostly from connective tissue and has ammonia added to kill bacteria.
Here's a feature from the Tennessean about attempts to limit sugar intake. Here are some corresponding public service announcements about sugary beverages.
Here's a long, but interesting, article about genetics and other factors that explain why weight gained can't be reduced to a simple equation computing calories consumed and calories burned.
Here's an explanation of how exercise benefits the brain
New technology may help people manage their weight, including new watch-like devices designed to track physical activity and food consumption
There are signs that obesity rates may finally be beginning to level off
A wide array of businesses are taking steps to help people eat healthier. Wal-Mart has announced a new food labeling system. And the Quaker Oats man is now skinnier.
Here's an update on Michelle Obama's "Let's Move" campaign
Food writer Mark Bittman says people need to understand that potatoes are healthy but Pringles aren't
The average American ate literally a ton of food this past year
Life expectancy in the US has fallen significantly further behind international averages since 2000
Family Teaching Kitchens are currently being run by the United Way in Tennessee to help people learn how to cook healthier for their family.
School lunches have been the subject of recent intense fights between health advocates on one side and industry lobbyists and politicians from states that grow and produce less healthy foods on the other.
Despite recent controversy, it's still allowed in school lunches, and 70% of ground beef in the US contains what the meat industry refers to as "lean, finely textured beef" and what critics refer to as "pink slime," which is made mostly from connective tissue and has ammonia added to kill bacteria.
Here's a feature from the Tennessean about attempts to limit sugar intake. Here are some corresponding public service announcements about sugary beverages.
Here's a long, but interesting, article about genetics and other factors that explain why weight gained can't be reduced to a simple equation computing calories consumed and calories burned.
Here's an explanation of how exercise benefits the brain
New technology may help people manage their weight, including new watch-like devices designed to track physical activity and food consumption
There are signs that obesity rates may finally be beginning to level off
A wide array of businesses are taking steps to help people eat healthier. Wal-Mart has announced a new food labeling system. And the Quaker Oats man is now skinnier.
Here's an update on Michelle Obama's "Let's Move" campaign
Food writer Mark Bittman says people need to understand that potatoes are healthy but Pringles aren't
The average American ate literally a ton of food this past year
Life expectancy in the US has fallen significantly further behind international averages since 2000
Family Teaching Kitchens are currently being run by the United Way in Tennessee to help people learn how to cook healthier for their family.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Politics Links, 3-11-12
Romney won enough states on Super Tuesday to cement his position as frontrunner and extend his delegate lead, but not enough to convince Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum to leave the race. As a result, Romney's staff began responding to those who question his lack of decisive victories by arguing that the delegate math makes it impossible for any of the other candidates to win.
Santorum, meanwhile, won a decisive victory in Kansas on Saturday, extending his streak of winning every state in the middle of the country.
Meanwhile, turnout is down in the majority of Republican primaries to date -- with the exception of states with "open" primaries that allow Independents and Democrats to vote.
The economy added 227,000 jobs in February -- the third consecutive month with 200K+ jobs added -- and a wide range of figures indicate likely future growth
Harvard Economist (and Romney campaign consultant) Greg Mankiw provides a breakdown of what counts as ordinary earned income and what counts as capital gains using five examples where people make money off the sale of a house.
In a rare act of bipartisanship, the House passed the JOBS Act (Jumpstart Our Business Startups) by a vote of 390-23. The bill is designed to make it easier for new businesses to obtain financing.
Female legislators in Georgia's State Senate walked out last week to protest votes on limiting access to contraception and abortions -- what they called "a war on women"
Olympia Snowe, a moderate Republican Senator from Maine, has decided not to run again because she sees little possibility of progress given the partisan gridlock
Illegal border crossings along the Mexican border have decreased by about 2/3 over the past six years, but there's been an uptick in violent confrontations
Environmental Links, 3-11-12
The Outer Banks faces a large question regarding their highway that keeps getting destroyed as weather eats away at the sand supporting it and sea levels potentially rise . . . locals suffer economically every time another section is destroyed and not immediately repaired, but the state suffers financially every time they temporarily fix the road.
The BBC explores how the Fukushima nuclear disaster affected worldwide views of nuclear power . . . meanwhile, Japan has shut down all but two of their 54 nuclear reactors. In the US, expansion of nuclear power plants depends, in part, on finding a place to permanently store waste. TN Senator Lamar Alexander thinks that if we offer high enough incentives, communities will step forward to volunteer to host such storage facilities.
Ohio has stiffened laws on "fracking" after concluding that recent drilling caused earthquakes around Youngstown . . . fracking and related earthquakes were also mentioned in a Dilbert cartoon last week.
Both environmental leaders and deficit hawks are fighting against an increase in natural gas powered vehicles.
Deliverymen in NYC are increasingly using electric bikes, despite the upping of the fine to $1,000 for their use
Here's an op-ed arguing for increased use of methanol to power cars. And The Economist also has a feature on methanol.
According to a new poll, Californians narrowly support high-speed rail . . . but those planning on voting do not
The BBC explores how the Fukushima nuclear disaster affected worldwide views of nuclear power . . . meanwhile, Japan has shut down all but two of their 54 nuclear reactors. In the US, expansion of nuclear power plants depends, in part, on finding a place to permanently store waste. TN Senator Lamar Alexander thinks that if we offer high enough incentives, communities will step forward to volunteer to host such storage facilities.
Ohio has stiffened laws on "fracking" after concluding that recent drilling caused earthquakes around Youngstown . . . fracking and related earthquakes were also mentioned in a Dilbert cartoon last week.
Both environmental leaders and deficit hawks are fighting against an increase in natural gas powered vehicles.
Deliverymen in NYC are increasingly using electric bikes, despite the upping of the fine to $1,000 for their use
Here's an op-ed arguing for increased use of methanol to power cars. And The Economist also has a feature on methanol.
According to a new poll, Californians narrowly support high-speed rail . . . but those planning on voting do not
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Environmental Policy Links, 2-28-12
Envia Systems, in the Silicon Valley, has developed an electric vehicle battery that would allow a car to travel 300 miles between chargings
Paul Krugman on solar vs. fracking
The BBC reports that fish stocks are being severely depleted in many places and explores some potential policy solutions
Scientists are being hampered in their study of global warming
The Economist argues climate change will be single most important thing, retrospectively, in 100 years
Due to decreased demand for gasoline and excess refinery capacity, the US is actually now a net exporter of gasoline
Here's the West End Bus Rapid Transit Plan and and an update on its implementation
They're installing the "green roof" on Nashville's new convention center
The Economist writes about the dangers of being tangled up in green-tape
Here's the lowdown on some leaked documents from the Heartland Institute, which funds scientists who seek to discredit global warming
Paul Krugman on solar vs. fracking
The BBC reports that fish stocks are being severely depleted in many places and explores some potential policy solutions
Scientists are being hampered in their study of global warming
The Economist argues climate change will be single most important thing, retrospectively, in 100 years
Due to decreased demand for gasoline and excess refinery capacity, the US is actually now a net exporter of gasoline
Here's the West End Bus Rapid Transit Plan and and an update on its implementation
They're installing the "green roof" on Nashville's new convention center
The Economist writes about the dangers of being tangled up in green-tape
Here's the lowdown on some leaked documents from the Heartland Institute, which funds scientists who seek to discredit global warming
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Links, 2-22-12
Rich Santorum garnered some attention after calling the idea of schools run by state or federal governments "anachronistic"
The Economist has a feature article on Cass Sunstein's efforts to streamline federal government regulations.
NJ Governor Chris Christie says Warren Buffet "should just write a check and shut up" if he thinks that the wealthy should pay higher taxes
Ruth Ann Dailey has "a civil solution to the same-sex marriage angst". She writes that the problem with many gay marriage laws is that they result in "religious oppression" and make religious conservatives "second-class citizens". She cites the case of DC which passed a gay marriage law requiring that "'every third party' recognize same-sex marriage as legitimate". The result, she says, is that Catholic Charities ended it's foster care rather than allow gay couples to adopt babies and discontinued health insurance rather than provide coverage to gay spouses. Her solution is for the government to offer only civil unions to all citizens, straight or gay, and for churches to choose which unions they recognize as marriage or not. She says the approach has worked in California, where the San Francisco diocese now simply offers health insurance coverage to a "second adult" in the household "regardless of relationship".
Rick Santorum has polled ahead of Mitt Romney in the last six national polls, including leads of 10+ points in three of them.
Thomas Friedman writes that a third-party candidate is likely if the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney spent far more money than he took in during the month of January, erasing his large lead in fundraising.
Frank Bruni writes that people are too focused on drugs when they discuss the deaths of Whitney Houston and Amy Whinehouse. He says that alcohol does far more societal damage than do drugs but that nobody seems willing to confront the problem -- excise taxes have markedly declined over the past few decades in real dollars, for example. Therefore, he argues, we need to level a pigovian tax on alcohol to account for these negative externalities.
President Obama wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 28% but eliminate enough loopholes, exceptions, and subsidies to make the tax cut revenue neutral.
The economy looks like it's recovering, but there's always the danger that gas prices, local/state government funding cuts, turmoil in Europe, or some unforeseen shock (e.g. the Nuclear disaster in Japan last year) could derail growth.
For the first 150 years, most presidents home-schooled their children at the White House, he said. “Where did they come up that public education and bigger education bureaucracies was the rule in America? Parents educated their children, because it’s their responsibility to educate their children.” “Yes the government can help,” Mr. Santorum added. “But the idea that the federal government should be running schools, frankly much less that the state government should be running schools, is anachronistic. It goes back to the time of industrialization of America when people came off the farms where they did home-school or have the little neighborhood school, and into these big factories, so we built equal factories called public schools. And while those factories as we all know in Ohio and Pennsylvania have fundamentally changed, the factory school has not.”
The Economist has a feature article on Cass Sunstein's efforts to streamline federal government regulations.
NJ Governor Chris Christie says Warren Buffet "should just write a check and shut up" if he thinks that the wealthy should pay higher taxes
Ruth Ann Dailey has "a civil solution to the same-sex marriage angst". She writes that the problem with many gay marriage laws is that they result in "religious oppression" and make religious conservatives "second-class citizens". She cites the case of DC which passed a gay marriage law requiring that "'every third party' recognize same-sex marriage as legitimate". The result, she says, is that Catholic Charities ended it's foster care rather than allow gay couples to adopt babies and discontinued health insurance rather than provide coverage to gay spouses. Her solution is for the government to offer only civil unions to all citizens, straight or gay, and for churches to choose which unions they recognize as marriage or not. She says the approach has worked in California, where the San Francisco diocese now simply offers health insurance coverage to a "second adult" in the household "regardless of relationship".
Rick Santorum has polled ahead of Mitt Romney in the last six national polls, including leads of 10+ points in three of them.
Thomas Friedman writes that a third-party candidate is likely if the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney spent far more money than he took in during the month of January, erasing his large lead in fundraising.
Frank Bruni writes that people are too focused on drugs when they discuss the deaths of Whitney Houston and Amy Whinehouse. He says that alcohol does far more societal damage than do drugs but that nobody seems willing to confront the problem -- excise taxes have markedly declined over the past few decades in real dollars, for example. Therefore, he argues, we need to level a pigovian tax on alcohol to account for these negative externalities.
President Obama wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 28% but eliminate enough loopholes, exceptions, and subsidies to make the tax cut revenue neutral.
The economy looks like it's recovering, but there's always the danger that gas prices, local/state government funding cuts, turmoil in Europe, or some unforeseen shock (e.g. the Nuclear disaster in Japan last year) could derail growth.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Links, 2-20-12
3 of the 4 candidates have declined to participate in March 1st debate CNN is sponsoring in Atlanta, which means that the debate next Wednesday in Arizona could be the last debate of the primary season
Here's an interesting piece on various attempts to quantify the conservative-ness of the Republican candidates. Santorum is rated more moderately on economic issues and more conservatively on social issues than Romney. Correspondingly, newspapers mention social issues in conjunction with Santorum's name far more often than they do with Romney's name (and vice-versa with economic issues). The keywords most frequently used in conjunction with Santorum's name are sex/sexuality, gay rights/gay marriage/same-sex marriage, and birth control/contraception. Meanwhile, tax/taxes, stimulus, and wealth/wealthy/rich are most frequently used in articles discussing Romney.
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat follows the trend by pointing out that Santorum thinks contraception should be legal but that both he and liberals agree that abortions should be minimized, writing that "both Democrats and Republicans generally agree that the country would be better off with fewer pregnant teenagers, fewer unwanted children, fewer absent fathers, fewer out-of-wedlock births"
He continues to argue that the problem with the Conservative vision is that "a successful chastity-centric culture seems to depned on a level of social cohesion, religious intensity shared values that exists only in small pockets of the country" and that the problem with the Liberal vision is that "more condoms, fewer abortions" is not playing out in reality -- that more liberal states sometimes have lower teen birth rates only because they have higher rates of abortion among teens.
The Economist asks how much of the declining crime rate is due to the growing prison population
A new study finds that people grow more tolerant as they grow older
Paul Krugman takes Mitt Romney to task for calling himself "severely conservative," writing that "severely" is usually used to describe a disease (a linguistics prof. at Penn says "severely" is most frequently coupled with disabled, depressed, ill, limited, and injured) and asks if Romney and others have "Severe Conservative Syndrome".
Congress will pay for the extension in the payroll tax by auctioning off public airwaves currently used for TV broadcasts to wireless carriers
Here's a chart comparing organ donation rates around the world
This is only sort of related to public policy, but interesting nonetheless -- here are two charts breaking down what men and women want in a partner and how that's changed in the past 70 years.
The majority of babies born to women under 30 are now born out of wedlock, though the stats differ greatly by race and SES: "About 92 percent of college-educated women are married when they give birth, compared with 62 percent of women with some post-secondary schooling and 43 percent of women with a high school diploma or less"
And to round out the trio of articles on marriage and child-rearing here's a piece on how to develop self-control in your child in which the authors say recent books extolling the virtues of Chinese and French-style parenting aren't the only way.
Here's an interesting piece on various attempts to quantify the conservative-ness of the Republican candidates. Santorum is rated more moderately on economic issues and more conservatively on social issues than Romney. Correspondingly, newspapers mention social issues in conjunction with Santorum's name far more often than they do with Romney's name (and vice-versa with economic issues). The keywords most frequently used in conjunction with Santorum's name are sex/sexuality, gay rights/gay marriage/same-sex marriage, and birth control/contraception. Meanwhile, tax/taxes, stimulus, and wealth/wealthy/rich are most frequently used in articles discussing Romney.
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat follows the trend by pointing out that Santorum thinks contraception should be legal but that both he and liberals agree that abortions should be minimized, writing that "both Democrats and Republicans generally agree that the country would be better off with fewer pregnant teenagers, fewer unwanted children, fewer absent fathers, fewer out-of-wedlock births"
Where cultural liberals and social conservatives differ is on the means that will achieve these ends. The liberal vision tends to emphasize access to contraception as the surest path to stable families, wanted children and low abortion rates. The more direct control that women have over when and whether sex makes babies, liberals argue, the less likely they’ll be to get pregnant at the wrong time and with the wrong partner — and the less likely they’ll be to even consider having an abortion. (Slate’s Will Saletan has memorably termed this “the pro-life case for Planned Parenthood.”)
The conservative narrative, by contrast, argues that it’s more important to promote chastity, monogamy and fidelity than to worry about whether there’s a prophylactic in every bedroom drawer or bathroom cabinet. To the extent that contraceptive use has a significant role in the conservative vision (and obviously there’s some Catholic-Protestant disagreement), it’s in the context of already stable, already committed relationships. Monogamy, not chemicals or latex, is the main line of defense against unwanted pregnancies.
He continues to argue that the problem with the Conservative vision is that "a successful chastity-centric culture seems to depned on a level of social cohesion, religious intensity shared values that exists only in small pockets of the country" and that the problem with the Liberal vision is that "more condoms, fewer abortions" is not playing out in reality -- that more liberal states sometimes have lower teen birth rates only because they have higher rates of abortion among teens.
The Economist asks how much of the declining crime rate is due to the growing prison population
A new study finds that people grow more tolerant as they grow older
Paul Krugman takes Mitt Romney to task for calling himself "severely conservative," writing that "severely" is usually used to describe a disease (a linguistics prof. at Penn says "severely" is most frequently coupled with disabled, depressed, ill, limited, and injured) and asks if Romney and others have "Severe Conservative Syndrome".
today’s dismal G.O.P. field — is there anyone who doesn’t consider it dismal? — is no accident. Economic conservatives played a cynical game, and now they’re facing the blowback, a party that suffers from “severe” conservatism in the worst way. And the malady may take many years to cure.
Congress will pay for the extension in the payroll tax by auctioning off public airwaves currently used for TV broadcasts to wireless carriers
Here's a chart comparing organ donation rates around the world
This is only sort of related to public policy, but interesting nonetheless -- here are two charts breaking down what men and women want in a partner and how that's changed in the past 70 years.
The majority of babies born to women under 30 are now born out of wedlock, though the stats differ greatly by race and SES: "About 92 percent of college-educated women are married when they give birth, compared with 62 percent of women with some post-secondary schooling and 43 percent of women with a high school diploma or less"
And to round out the trio of articles on marriage and child-rearing here's a piece on how to develop self-control in your child in which the authors say recent books extolling the virtues of Chinese and French-style parenting aren't the only way.
Effective approaches for building self-control combine fun with progressively increasing challenges. Rather than force activities onto an unwilling child, take advantage of his or her individual tendencies. When children develop self-control through their own pursuit of happiness, no parental hovering is required. Find something that the child is crazy about but that requires active effort. Whether it’s compiling baseball statistics or making (but not passively watching) YouTube videos, passionate hobbies build mental staying power that can also be used for math homework.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Economic Policy Links, 2-17-12
Here's an infographic the Congressional Budget Office created to display federal spending, revenues, and deficits, and debt.
An analysis by the CBO projects that TARP ("the bailout"), which authorized spending of $700 billion, will end up costing taxpayers $34 billion because the most of the loans are being repaid with interest.
A poll of top economists find that they strongly agree the stimulus plan created more jobs in the short-run and agree less strongly that the benefits of the stimulus will outweigh costs in the long-run.
As I mentioned in class, the US is currently experiencing its longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression
Paul Krugman argues that few people understand the debt and, hence, overstate it's significance in the near future.
Here's a story 60 Minutes did last fall on Grover Norquist and "the pledge" that most congressional Republicans have signed to never raise taxes
The Economist says it was wrong to oppose the GM bailout and that Mitt Romney should say similarly
An analysis by the CBO projects that TARP ("the bailout"), which authorized spending of $700 billion, will end up costing taxpayers $34 billion because the most of the loans are being repaid with interest.
A poll of top economists find that they strongly agree the stimulus plan created more jobs in the short-run and agree less strongly that the benefits of the stimulus will outweigh costs in the long-run.
As I mentioned in class, the US is currently experiencing its longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression
Paul Krugman argues that few people understand the debt and, hence, overstate it's significance in the near future.
Here's a story 60 Minutes did last fall on Grover Norquist and "the pledge" that most congressional Republicans have signed to never raise taxes
The Economist says it was wrong to oppose the GM bailout and that Mitt Romney should say similarly
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Economic Policy Links, 2-15-12
It looks like the improving economy has also improved Obama's approval ratings.
Congress appears to have reached a deal to extend the payroll tax cut for the rest of the year.
Obama is proposing that we tax dividends for the wealthiest Americans. David Miller, a tax lawyer, says the so-called "Buffet Tax" won't do much, but a "Zuckerberg Tax" on the value of stock in publicly-held companies would. A pair of economists also disagree with taxing the rich, saying that we should instead tax inequality itself.
The fewest young adults in 60 years have jobs
When anti-poverty programs run out at certain thresholds, it means that the working poor have the highest marginal tax rates in the country
Jared Bernstein writes that it's time to start working on the next minimum wage increase
Here's an excerpt from an upcoming book the inside story of the second stimulus
And here are some well-regarded essays on recent economic trends that didn't fit on the syllabus:
Chrystia Freeland writes "The Rise of the New Global Elite" that a new elite class is being formed
Yural Levin writes in "Beyond the Welfare State" that our current economic trajectory is unworkable
Congress appears to have reached a deal to extend the payroll tax cut for the rest of the year.
Obama is proposing that we tax dividends for the wealthiest Americans. David Miller, a tax lawyer, says the so-called "Buffet Tax" won't do much, but a "Zuckerberg Tax" on the value of stock in publicly-held companies would. A pair of economists also disagree with taxing the rich, saying that we should instead tax inequality itself.
The fewest young adults in 60 years have jobs
When anti-poverty programs run out at certain thresholds, it means that the working poor have the highest marginal tax rates in the country
Jared Bernstein writes that it's time to start working on the next minimum wage increase
Here's an excerpt from an upcoming book the inside story of the second stimulus
And here are some well-regarded essays on recent economic trends that didn't fit on the syllabus:
Chrystia Freeland writes "The Rise of the New Global Elite" that a new elite class is being formed
What is more relevant to our times, though, is that the rich of today are also different from the rich of yesterday. Our light-speed, globally connected economy has led to the rise of a new super-elite that consists, to a notable degree, of first- and second-generation wealth. Its members are hardworking, highly educated, jet-setting meritocrats who feel they are the deserving winners of a tough, worldwide economic competition—and many of them, as a result, have an ambivalent attitude toward those of us who didn’t succeed so spectacularly. Perhaps most noteworthy, they are becoming a transglobal community of peers who have more in common with one another than with their countrymen back home. Whether they maintain primary residences in New York or Hong Kong, Moscow or Mumbai, today’s super-rich are increasingly a nation unto themselves.
Yural Levin writes in "Beyond the Welfare State" that our current economic trajectory is unworkable
The fact is that we do not face a choice between the liberal welfare state on one hand and austerity on the other. Those are two sides of the same coin: Austerity and decline are what will come if we do not reform the welfare state. The choice we face is between that combination and a different approach to balancing our society's deepest aspirations. America still has a little time to find such an alternative. Our moment of reckoning is coming, but it is not yet here. We have perhaps a decade in which to avert it and to foster again the preconditions for growth and opportunity without forcing a great disruption in the lives of millions, if we start now. But we do not yet know quite how. The answer will not come from the left, which is far too committed to the old vision to accept its fate and contemplate alternatives. It must therefore emerge from the right. Conservatives must produce not only arguments against the liberal welfare state but also a different vision, a different answer to the question of how we might balance our aspirations. It must be a vision that emphasizes the pursuit of economic growth, republican virtues, and social mobility over economic security, value-neutral welfare, and material equality; that redefines the safety net as a means of making the poor more independent rather than making the middle class less so; and that translates these ideals into institutional forms that suit our modern, dynamic society. That different vision is now beginning to take shape. Slowly, bit by bit, we are starting to see what must replace our welfare state.
More on the Contraception Controversy
The last three blog posts have linked to articles regarding the controversial new rule enacted by the Obama administration that a number of faith-based organizations would have to include coverage of contraception in their employees' health insurance, and the subsequent compromise on the issue (that insurers will have to provide this coverage for free if a faith-based organization objects to paying for it on legal grounds). Some were assuaged by the compromise, while others were not. The Economist writes that this appears to be a battle between the fringes, since most moderates aren't particularly upset.
The Catholic Bishops, however, aren't backing down. Here's what they had to say about the White House's arguments for the plan and here's their central page on the issue. Meanwhile, one liberal blogger argues that Obama came out too well in the end not to have planned this from the start, writing that
One of the controversies surrounds a figure cited by the White House, columnist Nick Kristof, and others that (various people have repeated it differently) 98% of Catholic women use contraceptives (Kristof writes that "A national survey found that 98 percent of sexually active Catholic women use birth control at some point in their lives.") The figure is less than precise for a number of reasons -- here's one blogger's dissection of, and response to, the 98% figure. And here's another blog post by a conservative commentator highlighting some limits to the data.
Here's Politifact's evaluation of the 98% figure (they declared it "mostly true"). And here's the (very short) report from which the 98% figure came.
The report unambiguously declares that "Among all women who have had sex, 99% have ever used a contraceptive method other than natural family planning. This figure is virtually the same, 98%, among sexually experienced Catholic women" (p. 4). But it's unclear that the data support that authors' assertions, for a number of reasons -- two of which are particularly important.
1.) The difference between "sexually experienced" and "sexually active". The authors use the former phrase in the quote I pasted above, but the rest of the article and the table they seem to refer to in that quote all describe "sexually active" women -- those "who had sex in the three months prior to the survey" (p. 8). And, actually, it doesn't even include all sexually active women, since it excludes those who are "pregnant, postpartum, or trying to get pregnant," labeling the women included as "women at risk for unintended pregnancy" (p. 8). So, it seems like the 98% stat should actually have been written something like "98% of Catholic women between ages 15-44 who've had sex in the past three months and are not pregnant or trying to conceive used a form of birth control other than natural family planning in that same period".
2.) 11% of the women who report using methods other than "natural family planning" used "no method," And 4% use "other methods," which mainly includes withdrawal "but also includes less common methods, such as suppositories, sponges and foams" (p. 8). I'm unclear on precisely what these 15% of women are doing to prevent pregnancy and how, exactly, that aligns with the teaching of the Catholic church, but it seems that the number of sexually active Catholic women who are at risk of unwanted pregnancy and are using non-approved methods of contraception is somewhere between 83% and 98%. I'm skeptical that any of the 11% using "no method" belong in there, but it sounds like some of the 4% using "other" do.
The problem, of course, is that the most important stat would be the percentage of Catholic women who, at some point during their childbearing years, use contraceptive methods not approved by the Catholic church. To get that figure, we'd have to survey a large group of women who are at least 45 and ask them what types of contraceptives (if any) they've used (though given that it could change by generation, we could also survey younger women about past use and future intent and calculate total likelihood). The 83-98% number does not represent that figure, even though that authors seem to imply that it does. We can, however, guesstimate what the figure might be.
If one uses the most conservative estimates -- assuming those who are not sexually experienced or are pregnant, postpartum, or trying to conceive (the latter group is 14% of married women, the report says) have never used, and will never use, non-sanctioned contraceptives -- then we might guess that only about 50-60% of Catholics ever use these.
On the other hand, more realistic estimates would account for the fact that many of those who are excluded from the sample (the non sexually active and the pregnant/postpartum/attempting to conceive group) and many of those 2-17% who aren't currently using non-sanctioned contraceptives either have used or will use these devices at some point in time (perhaps when they were younger and didn't want children or when they grow older and become sexually active and/or don't want any more children). Taking those factors into account, a more realistic guesstimate would be that somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of Catholic women use some method other than natural family planning or "no method" at some point in their lives. But those are only guesstimates that are loosely informed by the data.
The moral of the story is to never take stats at face value -- not even the descriptions used by trained researchers, and certainly not the parroting of these findings by reporters.
The Catholic Bishops, however, aren't backing down. Here's what they had to say about the White House's arguments for the plan and here's their central page on the issue. Meanwhile, one liberal blogger argues that Obama came out too well in the end not to have planned this from the start, writing that
The fun part of this is that Obama just pulled a fast one on Republicans. He drew this out for two weeks, letting Republicans work themselves into a frenzy of anti-contraception rhetoric, all thinly disguised as concern for religious liberty, and then created a compromise that addressed their purported concerns but without actually reducing women's access to contraception, which is what this has always been about. (As Dana Goldstein reported in 2010, before the religious liberty gambit was brought up, the Catholic bishops were just demanding that women be denied access and told to abstain from sex instead.) With the fig leaf of religious liberty removed, Republicans are in a bad situation. They can either drop this and slink away knowing they've been punked, or they can double down. But in order to do so, they'll have to be more blatantly anti-contraception, a politically toxic move in a country where 99% of women have used contraception.
One of the controversies surrounds a figure cited by the White House, columnist Nick Kristof, and others that (various people have repeated it differently) 98% of Catholic women use contraceptives (Kristof writes that "A national survey found that 98 percent of sexually active Catholic women use birth control at some point in their lives.") The figure is less than precise for a number of reasons -- here's one blogger's dissection of, and response to, the 98% figure. And here's another blog post by a conservative commentator highlighting some limits to the data.
Here's Politifact's evaluation of the 98% figure (they declared it "mostly true"). And here's the (very short) report from which the 98% figure came.
The report unambiguously declares that "Among all women who have had sex, 99% have ever used a contraceptive method other than natural family planning. This figure is virtually the same, 98%, among sexually experienced Catholic women" (p. 4). But it's unclear that the data support that authors' assertions, for a number of reasons -- two of which are particularly important.
1.) The difference between "sexually experienced" and "sexually active". The authors use the former phrase in the quote I pasted above, but the rest of the article and the table they seem to refer to in that quote all describe "sexually active" women -- those "who had sex in the three months prior to the survey" (p. 8). And, actually, it doesn't even include all sexually active women, since it excludes those who are "pregnant, postpartum, or trying to get pregnant," labeling the women included as "women at risk for unintended pregnancy" (p. 8). So, it seems like the 98% stat should actually have been written something like "98% of Catholic women between ages 15-44 who've had sex in the past three months and are not pregnant or trying to conceive used a form of birth control other than natural family planning in that same period".
2.) 11% of the women who report using methods other than "natural family planning" used "no method," And 4% use "other methods," which mainly includes withdrawal "but also includes less common methods, such as suppositories, sponges and foams" (p. 8). I'm unclear on precisely what these 15% of women are doing to prevent pregnancy and how, exactly, that aligns with the teaching of the Catholic church, but it seems that the number of sexually active Catholic women who are at risk of unwanted pregnancy and are using non-approved methods of contraception is somewhere between 83% and 98%. I'm skeptical that any of the 11% using "no method" belong in there, but it sounds like some of the 4% using "other" do.
The problem, of course, is that the most important stat would be the percentage of Catholic women who, at some point during their childbearing years, use contraceptive methods not approved by the Catholic church. To get that figure, we'd have to survey a large group of women who are at least 45 and ask them what types of contraceptives (if any) they've used (though given that it could change by generation, we could also survey younger women about past use and future intent and calculate total likelihood). The 83-98% number does not represent that figure, even though that authors seem to imply that it does. We can, however, guesstimate what the figure might be.
If one uses the most conservative estimates -- assuming those who are not sexually experienced or are pregnant, postpartum, or trying to conceive (the latter group is 14% of married women, the report says) have never used, and will never use, non-sanctioned contraceptives -- then we might guess that only about 50-60% of Catholics ever use these.
On the other hand, more realistic estimates would account for the fact that many of those who are excluded from the sample (the non sexually active and the pregnant/postpartum/attempting to conceive group) and many of those 2-17% who aren't currently using non-sanctioned contraceptives either have used or will use these devices at some point in time (perhaps when they were younger and didn't want children or when they grow older and become sexually active and/or don't want any more children). Taking those factors into account, a more realistic guesstimate would be that somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of Catholic women use some method other than natural family planning or "no method" at some point in their lives. But those are only guesstimates that are loosely informed by the data.
The moral of the story is to never take stats at face value -- not even the descriptions used by trained researchers, and certainly not the parroting of these findings by reporters.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Links, 2-13-12
Romney won the straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Committee meetings, edging out Rick Santorum 38-31% and looks to have won the Maine Caucuses, edging Ron Paul 39-36% (though Paul could still end up with more delegates). Santorum is ahead in the latest national poll and second in two others, leading him to declare that "this is a two-person race right now". Meanwhile, others are arguing that the Santorum surge may lead to a brokered convention.
The Obama administration announced a compromise on the contraception issue, which drew mixed reactions. A group of Bishops were not happy, saying that the compromise raised "a grave moral concern," but other catholic groups supported the compromise. And some secular commentators complained that religious groups are able to do whatever they please in the name of religion -- Nick Kristof cites a stat that 98% of Catholic women use a contraceptive at some point in their lives and concludes
Federal and state officials reached a deal on troubled mortgages with some large, national banks that would award $2,000 to people whose homes were improperly foreclosed upon and allow people currently underwater to refinance at lower rates and make some other mortgage modifications.
A woman in Arizona was declared ineligible to run for City Council after it was decided that her English wasn't good enough.
Teen pregnancies, births, and abortions have dropped by almost half since 1990
Here's the article we discussed in class on priming people to walk faster after a fake research study
Here's an entertaining, but illuminating, short video of Tucker Carlson (a conservative commentator) and Paul Begala (a liberal commentator) playing a word association game at CPAC. Words mentioned by the moderator include unions, poor people, the IRS, and Kim Kardashian
The Obama administration announced a compromise on the contraception issue, which drew mixed reactions. A group of Bishops were not happy, saying that the compromise raised "a grave moral concern," but other catholic groups supported the compromise. And some secular commentators complained that religious groups are able to do whatever they please in the name of religion -- Nick Kristof cites a stat that 98% of Catholic women use a contraceptive at some point in their lives and concludes
In this case, we should make a good-faith effort to avoid offending Catholic bishops who passionately oppose birth control. I’m glad that Obama sought a compromise. But let’s remember that there are also other interests at stake. If we have to choose between bishops’ sensibilities and women’s health, our national priority must be the female half of our population.
Federal and state officials reached a deal on troubled mortgages with some large, national banks that would award $2,000 to people whose homes were improperly foreclosed upon and allow people currently underwater to refinance at lower rates and make some other mortgage modifications.
A woman in Arizona was declared ineligible to run for City Council after it was decided that her English wasn't good enough.
Teen pregnancies, births, and abortions have dropped by almost half since 1990
Here's the article we discussed in class on priming people to walk faster after a fake research study
Here's an entertaining, but illuminating, short video of Tucker Carlson (a conservative commentator) and Paul Begala (a liberal commentator) playing a word association game at CPAC. Words mentioned by the moderator include unions, poor people, the IRS, and Kim Kardashian
Friday, February 10, 2012
Links, 2-10-12
After Santorum's victories, it's looking more and more likely that these primaries will drag on for a long time.
Michelle Bachmann says that Santorum's victories were a shot across the bow, saying that these elections were the first where voters focused on social issues.
John McCain says low turnout was to blame for Romney's defeats on Tuesday, pointing out that only about 1% of registered voters voted across the three states. Prior to Tuesday's defeats, Romney had done the best in states with depressed turnout.
This infographic on Congressional wealth has been floating around the internet, so I decided to see if it was accurate. According to estimates of Congressional net worth posted on the Center for Responsive Politics' website (Members of Congress only have to report their asset in value ranges, so the midpoint of that range is a guesstimate of their true net worth), the median net worth of a member of Congress is just shy of $1 million. Yes, that means that almost half of all members of Congress (and almost 2/3 of Senators) were likely millionaires according to their 2010 financial disclosures. The median Senator was worth about $2.5 million and the median House member about $768K.
Gay marriage is once again in the news after it was legalized in Washington (state) and California's ban was overturned in appeals court. Here's the legal status of gay marriage in all 50 states.
Here's a discussion between liberal columnist Gail Collins and conservative columnist David Brooks on whether Catholic hospitals and schools should be exempt from the requirement that employers must provide health insurance that includes coverage for contraceptives.
Michelle Bachmann says that Santorum's victories were a shot across the bow, saying that these elections were the first where voters focused on social issues.
John McCain says low turnout was to blame for Romney's defeats on Tuesday, pointing out that only about 1% of registered voters voted across the three states. Prior to Tuesday's defeats, Romney had done the best in states with depressed turnout.
This infographic on Congressional wealth has been floating around the internet, so I decided to see if it was accurate. According to estimates of Congressional net worth posted on the Center for Responsive Politics' website (Members of Congress only have to report their asset in value ranges, so the midpoint of that range is a guesstimate of their true net worth), the median net worth of a member of Congress is just shy of $1 million. Yes, that means that almost half of all members of Congress (and almost 2/3 of Senators) were likely millionaires according to their 2010 financial disclosures. The median Senator was worth about $2.5 million and the median House member about $768K.
Gay marriage is once again in the news after it was legalized in Washington (state) and California's ban was overturned in appeals court. Here's the legal status of gay marriage in all 50 states.
Here's a discussion between liberal columnist Gail Collins and conservative columnist David Brooks on whether Catholic hospitals and schools should be exempt from the requirement that employers must provide health insurance that includes coverage for contraceptives.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Links, 2-8-12
Rick Santorum went for three for three tonight, sweeping to easy victories in the Minnesota caucuses and the non-binding Missouri "primary" (the actual caucuses are a month away), and edging out Romney in the Colorado caucuses as well. Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, finished a distant third in Colorado, an even more distant fourth in Minnesota, and failed to qualify for the ballot in Missouri.
The results will likely shock many, but not everybody. On Monday, Ross Douthat echoed a number of other recent columns and blog posts and asked whether Santorum isn't now better positioned to challenge Romney in the Republican primaries.
Here's the graphic on nudges in lunch line design by researchers at Cornell that we discussed in class
After long resisting the idea of "Super PACs," President Obama has decided to allow staff members to make a stronger effort to raise money for the "Priorities USA" Super PAC that supports his re-election bid.
Some Republicans, including Karl Rove, attacked Chrysler's Super Bowl ad "Halftime in America" as a political ad blatantly supporting Obama's auto bailouts that cost the country billions of dollars. Charles Blow doesn't disagree that the ad was pro-bailout, but disagrees with Rove's characterization of the bailouts, pointing out that Bush wrote the first bailout check and that Chrysler and GM have repaid almost all of the money.
Perhaps adding fuel to that fire, Joe Biden's one sentence summary of Obama's argument for re-election is "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive".
There are now about half as many conservative "blue dog" Democrats in the House as there were a few years ago. There are fewer moderate Republicans as well.
Here is The Economist's take on Charles Murray's new book on the classes drifting apart in America.
The Economist interviews Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics and one of the fathers of the field of Behavioral Economics and they discuss limits to the rational actor model and common mistakes in human decision making.
The Obama Administration is trying to assuage concerns from religiously-affiliated organizations, particularly the Catholic Church, after a new rule was announced requiring all organizations to offer to cover contraceptives in the health care plans they offer to outside employees
In response to the recent debates over Abortion, Andrew Rosenthal asks if abortions are truly rare in America
The results will likely shock many, but not everybody. On Monday, Ross Douthat echoed a number of other recent columns and blog posts and asked whether Santorum isn't now better positioned to challenge Romney in the Republican primaries.
Here's the graphic on nudges in lunch line design by researchers at Cornell that we discussed in class
After long resisting the idea of "Super PACs," President Obama has decided to allow staff members to make a stronger effort to raise money for the "Priorities USA" Super PAC that supports his re-election bid.
Some Republicans, including Karl Rove, attacked Chrysler's Super Bowl ad "Halftime in America" as a political ad blatantly supporting Obama's auto bailouts that cost the country billions of dollars. Charles Blow doesn't disagree that the ad was pro-bailout, but disagrees with Rove's characterization of the bailouts, pointing out that Bush wrote the first bailout check and that Chrysler and GM have repaid almost all of the money.
Perhaps adding fuel to that fire, Joe Biden's one sentence summary of Obama's argument for re-election is "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive".
There are now about half as many conservative "blue dog" Democrats in the House as there were a few years ago. There are fewer moderate Republicans as well.
Here is The Economist's take on Charles Murray's new book on the classes drifting apart in America.
The Economist interviews Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics and one of the fathers of the field of Behavioral Economics and they discuss limits to the rational actor model and common mistakes in human decision making.
The Obama Administration is trying to assuage concerns from religiously-affiliated organizations, particularly the Catholic Church, after a new rule was announced requiring all organizations to offer to cover contraceptives in the health care plans they offer to outside employees
In response to the recent debates over Abortion, Andrew Rosenthal asks if abortions are truly rare in America
Monday, February 6, 2012
Links, 2-6-12
The economy added 243,000 jobs in January (257,000 by private companies and -14,000 government jobs), and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% -- the lowest in 3 years -- probably in part because banks are starting to lend money again. The report came as a bit of a surprise, as economists were predicting about 100K fewer jobs created, sending Republicans scrambling to re-write their critical press releases . . . but they eventually recovered, with Reince Priebus, the RNC Chair, saying that "our economy remains unacceptably weak". Unlike previous reports, this one might signal real long-term growth ahead. As The Economist reports:
No one stat can tell us everything, but previous elections indicate that continued growth of 150K+ jobs per month would be good news for Obama's reelection chances. But Paul Krugman cautions that even this rate of job growth will not return the country to full employment until 2019.
Romney easily won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday. Here are the entrance poll results. Next week will bring caucuses in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. Here's the full primary calendar, including past results.
It may be a little late for this, given that it's looking more and more likely that Romney will run away with the nomination, but here's a chart comparing the candidates' stances on the issues.
Sheldon Adelson, whose $10 million in donations to the "Super PAC" supporting Newt Gingrich may be singularly responsible for Gingrich's ability to continue in the race, has assured Romney's backers in private that he'll support Romney even more generously once it becomes clear that Gingrich no longer has a shot. Romney, meanwhile, now says that he "misspoke" when declaring his lack of concern for the very poor last week. And Fareed Zakaria chastises Romney for misinterpreting the phrase "Post-American World," writing that in his book of the same title, he begins by writing that "this is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else."
President Obama is now arguing that his desire for higher taxes on the wealth is based on his own personal faith, saying at the National Prayer Breakfast that "For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus's teaching that for unto whom much is given, much shall be required"
A cost-benefit analysis of Alabama's new strict immigration law by a University of Alabama economist finds that law could shrink the state's GDP by as much as 6% and cost the state over $200 million in sales and income taxes, though he notes that many of the benefits are hard to quantify, and says the remaining question for state legislators is "Are the benefits of the new immigration law worth the costs?"
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes that the coverage of the Komen foundation/Planned Parenthood kerfuffle last week shows that the media have "blinders" on when it comes to abortion
Liberal columnist Maureen Dowd writes that the reason Gingrich is still in the race is because of his wife.
Is the jobs recovery finally for real?
It certainly feels that way. Before getting into the caveats, let's look at January's solid employment report. Non-farm employment jumped 243,000, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%.
There were no obvious asterisks marring the positive tone of the report. Payroll gains were broad based. Construction rose 21,000, not surrendering any of its mild-weather gains of December. Manufacturing jumped 50,000, corroborating other signs of strength in the industrial sector. Government employment is becoming less of a drag: it fell only 14,000.
Prior declines in the unemployment rate were often the result of people dropping out of the labour force and thus no longer being counted as unemployed. Not this time. In January the number of employed people jumped 631,000, after adjusting for new population estimates. That’s according to the household survey which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, and often produces different results from the bigger and better-known payroll survey.
No one stat can tell us everything, but previous elections indicate that continued growth of 150K+ jobs per month would be good news for Obama's reelection chances. But Paul Krugman cautions that even this rate of job growth will not return the country to full employment until 2019.
Romney easily won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday. Here are the entrance poll results. Next week will bring caucuses in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. Here's the full primary calendar, including past results.
It may be a little late for this, given that it's looking more and more likely that Romney will run away with the nomination, but here's a chart comparing the candidates' stances on the issues.
Sheldon Adelson, whose $10 million in donations to the "Super PAC" supporting Newt Gingrich may be singularly responsible for Gingrich's ability to continue in the race, has assured Romney's backers in private that he'll support Romney even more generously once it becomes clear that Gingrich no longer has a shot. Romney, meanwhile, now says that he "misspoke" when declaring his lack of concern for the very poor last week. And Fareed Zakaria chastises Romney for misinterpreting the phrase "Post-American World," writing that in his book of the same title, he begins by writing that "this is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else."
President Obama is now arguing that his desire for higher taxes on the wealth is based on his own personal faith, saying at the National Prayer Breakfast that "For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus's teaching that for unto whom much is given, much shall be required"
A cost-benefit analysis of Alabama's new strict immigration law by a University of Alabama economist finds that law could shrink the state's GDP by as much as 6% and cost the state over $200 million in sales and income taxes, though he notes that many of the benefits are hard to quantify, and says the remaining question for state legislators is "Are the benefits of the new immigration law worth the costs?"
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes that the coverage of the Komen foundation/Planned Parenthood kerfuffle last week shows that the media have "blinders" on when it comes to abortion
Conservative complaints about media bias are sometimes overdrawn. But on the abortion issue, the press’s prejudices are often absolute, its biases blatant and its blinders impenetrable. In many newsrooms and television studios across the country, Planned Parenthood is regarded as the equivalent of, well, the Komen foundation: an apolitical, high-minded and humanitarian institution whose work no rational person — and certainly no self-respecting woman — could possibly question or oppose.
But of course millions of Americans — including, yes, millions of American women — do oppose Planned Parenthood. They oppose the 300,000-plus abortions it performs every year (making it the largest abortion provider in the country), and they oppose its tireless opposition to even modest limits on abortion.
Liberal columnist Maureen Dowd writes that the reason Gingrich is still in the race is because of his wife.
You can find her anytime standing statue-still on stage next to Newt as he speaks, gazing at him with such frozen attentiveness that she could give a master class to Nancy Reagan . . .
“She’s a transformational wife,” Alex Castellanos, the Republican strategist, told me. “She’s the wife who makes the candidate think he is destiny’s gift to mankind, born to greater things.” . . .
When Barack is cocky and looks at Michelle, he might see her thinking: “You’re no messiah. Pick up your socks.” But when Newt is cocky and looks at Callista, he sees her thinking: “You are the messiah. We’ll have your socks bronzed.”
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