Reading for Tomorrow:
-NYC pays poor for good conduct, with mixed results
-Is Chicago's 'Transformed' Cabrini-Green 'Too Good for Poor People'?
-His Dream: A Las Vegas without Public Housing
(you can skim the first half and start reading under the "What Can Be Done?" sub-heading)
Other Interesting Links:
-MSNBC and the NYTimes both profile the rise and fall of public housing in Atlanta -- which was the first city to open a major public housing development and now is the first to get rid of all of them.
-Underscoring the problems with measurement of poverty, NYC has seen poverty increase under a new, better, measure they're testing out while it fell under the official measure.
-One city in Utah has closed their homeless shelter, hoping to stop the influx of homeless people into their town. Instead, they'll offer subsidized housing that requires a down payment.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
Public Opinion on Health Care: An Update
For months leading up to the passage of health care, the pollster.com average found a net plurality of around 5-12 percentage points disapproved of the plan. The first poll taken after passage, however, found the public in favor of the plan by a 49-40 margin. Was that just an outlier, or has opinion actually shifted?
There have been five polls polls taken after passage of the bill. Here's how they stack up:
Across these five polls, a plurality still disapprove of health care -- but only a very slight one. Let's compare them to the last five polls released before passage:
The last five polls were among the most negative of the past year. Whether this is due to the build-up before passage or simply the five that happened to be last, I can't quite say. Comparing these 10, we see a 13 point swing in net approval of the health care bill. But this might not be the right comparison groups. Given the different questions and samples of the polls, it might be better to compare polls taken by the same organization before and after. There have been three of these:
Looking at only these three, we find a 7 point swing in net approval -- and we still see a small plurality (though not majority) opposed to the bill.
The trend could be just a blip, could be based on a few faulty polls, or could be a genuine shift in how Americans view the health care bill (or at least how they report they feel). Time should tell which interpretation is correct.
There have been five polls polls taken after passage of the bill. Here's how they stack up:
| Favor | Oppose | Net | |
| WaPo | 46 | 50 | -4 |
| CBS | 42 | 46 | -4 |
| Quinnipiac | 40 | 49 | -9 |
| USA Today-Gallup | 49 | 40 | 9 |
| YouGov | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| average | 45.4 | 47 | -1.6 |
Across these five polls, a plurality still disapprove of health care -- but only a very slight one. Let's compare them to the last five polls released before passage:
| Favor | Oppose | Net | |
| Bloomberg | 38 | 50 | -12 |
| CNN | 39 | 59 | -20 |
| CBS | 37 | 48 | -11 |
| Quinnipiac | 36 | 54 | -18 |
| Rasmussen | 41 | 54 | -13 |
| average | 38.2 | 53 | -14.8 |
The last five polls were among the most negative of the past year. Whether this is due to the build-up before passage or simply the five that happened to be last, I can't quite say. Comparing these 10, we see a 13 point swing in net approval of the health care bill. But this might not be the right comparison groups. Given the different questions and samples of the polls, it might be better to compare polls taken by the same organization before and after. There have been three of these:
| After | Before | |||||
| Favor | Oppose | Net | Favor | Oppose | Net | |
| CBS | 42 | 46 | -4 | 37 | 48 | -11 |
| Quinnipiac | 40 | 49 | -9 | 36 | 54 | -18 |
| YouGov | 50 | 50 | 0 | 48 | 53 | -5 |
| average | 44 | 48.33 | -4.33 | 40.33 | 51.67 | -11.33 |
Looking at only these three, we find a 7 point swing in net approval -- and we still see a small plurality (though not majority) opposed to the bill.
The trend could be just a blip, could be based on a few faulty polls, or could be a genuine shift in how Americans view the health care bill (or at least how they report they feel). Time should tell which interpretation is correct.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Poverty Policy Links
Nicholas Kristof writes that we're making progress in figuring out what will alleviate poverty. The answer? Jobs and education.
Lawrence Mead writes that the employment levels of poor men continues to decline and suggests that we use the criminal justice to force the 1.5 million men on probation or in arrears on their child support to work or go to jail.
Here's a review of William Julius Wilson's new book.
A brief look back at the life of Michael Harrington and the ways in which he influenced poverty policy
A rebuttal to the writings of Charles Murray, and other Libertarians, on poverty
Evictions are surprisingly common among the poor
Paul Krugman says recent research shows that "poverty is poison"
Alex Kotlowitz details how Cleveland has dealt with with their spate of foreclosures
He also details how Chicago's public housing system has failed (as of 2002)
Lawrence Mead writes that the employment levels of poor men continues to decline and suggests that we use the criminal justice to force the 1.5 million men on probation or in arrears on their child support to work or go to jail.
Here's a review of William Julius Wilson's new book.
A brief look back at the life of Michael Harrington and the ways in which he influenced poverty policy
A rebuttal to the writings of Charles Murray, and other Libertarians, on poverty
Evictions are surprisingly common among the poor
Paul Krugman says recent research shows that "poverty is poison"
Alex Kotlowitz details how Cleveland has dealt with with their spate of foreclosures
He also details how Chicago's public housing system has failed (as of 2002)
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Public Opinion on Health Care
An oft-heard talking point about the health care bill is that the public opposes it. The pollster.com average of public opinion polls has reported approval of the health care bill in the low forties and disapproval in the high forties for a few months now.
But some are speculating that the tide may turn after passage -- or, indeed, that it may have already turned. A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted after the bill passed asked respondents if this was a good or bad thing -- 49% said good and 40% said bad.
A CBS poll also taken after the bill passed found that the approval/disapproval of 47/48 of the way that Obama has handled health care -- up from 41/51 before the debate
These are only two polls, so the trend might not continue. But two explanations exist as to why we're seeing these results:
1.) The initial results were misleading. Take the these results from a Bloomberg poll taken right before the vote in which 38% favored the bill and 50% were opposed
Health care is so complicated it is hard for the average American to understand the proposals that are currently being discussed
75% Agree, 23% Disagree
The cost of doing nothing on health care will be greater than the cost of the proposed plan to overhaul it
51% Agree, 40% Disagree
The health care system is fine the way it is
20% Agree, 79% Disagree
In short, people don't know much about the health care bill but they want to do something to fix the broken health care system.
2.) As 538 points out, a small but meaningful number of people opposed the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. The approval numbers among Independents and Republicans in the new USA Today/Gallup poll is roughly similar to other previous polls, but the approval numbers among Democrats are much higher.
In the last poll before the bill passed (and outlier in terms of negativity toward the bill), conducted by CNN, 59% reported that they were opposed to the bill -- but 13% reported opposing the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. In other words, 52% of the population either favored the bill or thought it wasn't liberal enough while 43% opposed the bill b/c it was too liberal.
But some are speculating that the tide may turn after passage -- or, indeed, that it may have already turned. A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted after the bill passed asked respondents if this was a good or bad thing -- 49% said good and 40% said bad.
A CBS poll also taken after the bill passed found that the approval/disapproval of 47/48 of the way that Obama has handled health care -- up from 41/51 before the debate
These are only two polls, so the trend might not continue. But two explanations exist as to why we're seeing these results:
1.) The initial results were misleading. Take the these results from a Bloomberg poll taken right before the vote in which 38% favored the bill and 50% were opposed
Health care is so complicated it is hard for the average American to understand the proposals that are currently being discussed
75% Agree, 23% Disagree
The cost of doing nothing on health care will be greater than the cost of the proposed plan to overhaul it
51% Agree, 40% Disagree
The health care system is fine the way it is
20% Agree, 79% Disagree
In short, people don't know much about the health care bill but they want to do something to fix the broken health care system.
2.) As 538 points out, a small but meaningful number of people opposed the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. The approval numbers among Independents and Republicans in the new USA Today/Gallup poll is roughly similar to other previous polls, but the approval numbers among Democrats are much higher.
In the last poll before the bill passed (and outlier in terms of negativity toward the bill), conducted by CNN, 59% reported that they were opposed to the bill -- but 13% reported opposing the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. In other words, 52% of the population either favored the bill or thought it wasn't liberal enough while 43% opposed the bill b/c it was too liberal.
Today's Links
-CBS Moneywatch breaks down the winners and losers of the health care reform
-The health care bill may or may not do many things depending on whom you ask, but one thing it certainly does is reduce inequality -- some argue this makes it the first major piece of social legislation to be passed in four decades
-California has a money saving idea: release people from prison
-TN thought about making it slightly more difficult for passengers to drink while being driven, but the bill stalled out yet again
-Secretary of Education Arne Duncan may have a scandal on his hands. Seems like while he was superintendent of Chicago schools that his office kept a list of powerful people who asked for their kids to be placed in certain schools. His former aides say they only kept the list to keep a record of all requests and increase transparency . . . not everybody believes that to be the case. Many students on the list weren't admitted to the school about which they asked -- former Gov. Rod Blagojevich made a request on behalf of one student, and the note on the subsequent action taken simply reads "STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE."
-The health care bill may or may not do many things depending on whom you ask, but one thing it certainly does is reduce inequality -- some argue this makes it the first major piece of social legislation to be passed in four decades
-California has a money saving idea: release people from prison
-TN thought about making it slightly more difficult for passengers to drink while being driven, but the bill stalled out yet again
-Secretary of Education Arne Duncan may have a scandal on his hands. Seems like while he was superintendent of Chicago schools that his office kept a list of powerful people who asked for their kids to be placed in certain schools. His former aides say they only kept the list to keep a record of all requests and increase transparency . . . not everybody believes that to be the case. Many students on the list weren't admitted to the school about which they asked -- former Gov. Rod Blagojevich made a request on behalf of one student, and the note on the subsequent action taken simply reads "STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE."
Monday, March 22, 2010
Health Care Passes
As the fateful hour loomed, emotions ran high. Both sides characterized the bill in strong terms:
"The G.O.P. used to stand for the Grand Old Party. Now it stands for grandstand, oppose and postpone," said Edward Markey (D-MA)
“This bill will destroy freedom and do damage to the very fabric of our society,” said John Shadegg (R-AZ)
Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) reduced the bill to four words: “You’ve got health care.”
Tom Price (R-GA) said that if the bill becomes law: “We lose our morality. We lose our freedom.”
"Some said we're making history, I believe we're breaking history" said Mike Pence (R-IN)
Speaker Nancy Pelosi concluded the debate, saying “We may not have chosen the time, but the time has chosen us.”
At 10:41pm Eastern, the House voted to adopt the Senate's version of the health care bill (breakdown of final vote). Less than an hour later, a reconciliation bill composed of changes and amendments to the original bill also passed. President Obama is expected to sign the former into law in the next day or two -- the Senate will take the the latter up for debate in the near future as well. During debate on the reconciliation bill, Bart Stupak took the floor to explain why his peers should vote for the current language rather than sending it back to committee and adding stronger anti-abortion provisions and was interrupted by an as yet unidentified Republican shouting "baby killer!" -- the race is now on for the first media outlet to identify the shouter.
Following the votes, President Obama added a few concluding remarks, saying that today represents “another stone firmly laid in the foundation of the American dream,” and that “tonight, we answered the call of history as so many generations of Americans have before us."
The Democrats clearly ended the night feeling triumphant. Time will tell if Republicans' predictions of doom for those voting for the bill will come true. If so, the triumph could be somewhat short-lived.
"The G.O.P. used to stand for the Grand Old Party. Now it stands for grandstand, oppose and postpone," said Edward Markey (D-MA)
“This bill will destroy freedom and do damage to the very fabric of our society,” said John Shadegg (R-AZ)
Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) reduced the bill to four words: “You’ve got health care.”
Tom Price (R-GA) said that if the bill becomes law: “We lose our morality. We lose our freedom.”
"Some said we're making history, I believe we're breaking history" said Mike Pence (R-IN)
Speaker Nancy Pelosi concluded the debate, saying “We may not have chosen the time, but the time has chosen us.”
At 10:41pm Eastern, the House voted to adopt the Senate's version of the health care bill (breakdown of final vote). Less than an hour later, a reconciliation bill composed of changes and amendments to the original bill also passed. President Obama is expected to sign the former into law in the next day or two -- the Senate will take the the latter up for debate in the near future as well. During debate on the reconciliation bill, Bart Stupak took the floor to explain why his peers should vote for the current language rather than sending it back to committee and adding stronger anti-abortion provisions and was interrupted by an as yet unidentified Republican shouting "baby killer!" -- the race is now on for the first media outlet to identify the shouter.
Following the votes, President Obama added a few concluding remarks, saying that today represents “another stone firmly laid in the foundation of the American dream,” and that “tonight, we answered the call of history as so many generations of Americans have before us."
The Democrats clearly ended the night feeling triumphant. Time will tell if Republicans' predictions of doom for those voting for the bill will come true. If so, the triumph could be somewhat short-lived.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Upcoming: The Most Important Vote on Health Care
The House is scheduled to vote on the Senate's health care bill today. They need 216 votes to pass it -- according to the NY Times, as of Noon Eastern these 15 Representatives are still undecided and 6 of them need to vote yes. President Obama yesterday met with House Democrats to rally the troops, saying “Every once in a while a moment comes where you have a chance to vindicate all those best hopes that you had about yourself, about this country. This is one of those moments.”
The plan is for the House to pass the Senate version of the bill along with a set of changes that would have to be passed by the Senate through what's known as budget reconcilliation -- a process that only requires 51 votes. It's widely expected that zero Republicans will vote for the measures, and so far the Democrats most unwilling to commit to a yes vote are those who originally voted for the so-called Stupak amendment (named after Bart Stupak from Michigan), designed to limit abortion funding.
It's been a long, tough road for Democrats, and today may be the most important day for the legacies of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi and the electoral chances of a few dozen Democrats in Congress.
Update: In a 4pm press conference, Bart Stupak announced that he and a few others have agreed to vote for the bill on the condition that Obama issue an executive order prohibiting the usage of public funds for abortions -- this all but guarantees that the bill will pass at some point today. You can follow all the action here
The plan is for the House to pass the Senate version of the bill along with a set of changes that would have to be passed by the Senate through what's known as budget reconcilliation -- a process that only requires 51 votes. It's widely expected that zero Republicans will vote for the measures, and so far the Democrats most unwilling to commit to a yes vote are those who originally voted for the so-called Stupak amendment (named after Bart Stupak from Michigan), designed to limit abortion funding.
It's been a long, tough road for Democrats, and today may be the most important day for the legacies of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi and the electoral chances of a few dozen Democrats in Congress.
Update: In a 4pm press conference, Bart Stupak announced that he and a few others have agreed to vote for the bill on the condition that Obama issue an executive order prohibiting the usage of public funds for abortions -- this all but guarantees that the bill will pass at some point today. You can follow all the action here
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Health Policy Links
-Democrats expect a vote on health care reform as early as this weekend. The NY Times has a breakdown of which votes they need to get in order for it to pass . . . Dennis Kucinich announced today that he would switch to a "yes," making them one vote closer
-As the vote nears, the poll numbers on health care continue to improve -- mostly b/c Democrats and liberals who don't particularly like the bill are starting to realize it's either this or nothing. The latest aggregate poll numbers are 49-44 against the bill -- the best numbers for Democrats in six months.
-But not everything is changing. Even after all the negative publicity Anthem Blue Cross is still planning to proceed with their 39% rate hike. The new rates are effective as of May 1st
-A NY Times health writer compares past and projected health costs under the current system to what they might have been under previous failed reforms
-Paul Krugman writes that the notions that health care reform is a government take-over of one-sixth of the economy, does nothing to control costs, and is fiscally irresponsible are all myths
-David Brooks admires the passion shown by Democrates, writing that "The 30 million who would be covered under the Democratic proposals are not big voters, while the millions who would pay for the coverage are strikingly unhappy." But, at the same time, he thinks the passion has led to a fiscally irresponsible bill and believes Congress doesn't have the guts to follow through on the cost-cutting parts of the bill in the long run.
-Maryland has contained their health care costs grow since deciding in 1977 to allow an independent commission to set reimbursement rates for acute care
-Emulating Philadelphia, Pittsburgh's mayor is now proposing a 2 cents per ounce tax on sugary drinks in order to solve their revenue problems
-Pittsburgh has also had success getting young kids to eat their vegetables using the "Food is Elementary" curriculum in some local schools
-A bill in the NY state legislature would ban restaurants from putting any salt in foods
-The South Bronx has possibly the nation's worst hunger problem . . . and one of the most severe obesity problems as well. Why? Partially b/c almost all of the food available in the poverty-stricken area is cheap and unhealthy.
-As the vote nears, the poll numbers on health care continue to improve -- mostly b/c Democrats and liberals who don't particularly like the bill are starting to realize it's either this or nothing. The latest aggregate poll numbers are 49-44 against the bill -- the best numbers for Democrats in six months.
-But not everything is changing. Even after all the negative publicity Anthem Blue Cross is still planning to proceed with their 39% rate hike. The new rates are effective as of May 1st
-A NY Times health writer compares past and projected health costs under the current system to what they might have been under previous failed reforms
-Paul Krugman writes that the notions that health care reform is a government take-over of one-sixth of the economy, does nothing to control costs, and is fiscally irresponsible are all myths
-David Brooks admires the passion shown by Democrates, writing that "The 30 million who would be covered under the Democratic proposals are not big voters, while the millions who would pay for the coverage are strikingly unhappy." But, at the same time, he thinks the passion has led to a fiscally irresponsible bill and believes Congress doesn't have the guts to follow through on the cost-cutting parts of the bill in the long run.
-Maryland has contained their health care costs grow since deciding in 1977 to allow an independent commission to set reimbursement rates for acute care
-Emulating Philadelphia, Pittsburgh's mayor is now proposing a 2 cents per ounce tax on sugary drinks in order to solve their revenue problems
-Pittsburgh has also had success getting young kids to eat their vegetables using the "Food is Elementary" curriculum in some local schools
-A bill in the NY state legislature would ban restaurants from putting any salt in foods
-The South Bronx has possibly the nation's worst hunger problem . . . and one of the most severe obesity problems as well. Why? Partially b/c almost all of the food available in the poverty-stricken area is cheap and unhealthy.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Ed Policy Links
-On Saturday, Obama called for an overhaul of NCLB. Among other changes, he'd like to see an end of the 100% by 2014 goal, broader evaluations of schools, and use of trend (rather than snapshot) data -- but still maintains the annual math and reading tests.
-After surging in popularity over the past few years, charter schools are starting to receive some pushback. The state senator from Harlem, the hotbed of charter schools, recently put his foot down on the issue. And conservative researcher Diane Ravitch (who was assistant secretary of education under Bush I) recently released a book indicating a change of heart on school choice. Here, some experts discuss why the recent spate of negative press.
-Meanwhile, traditional public schools in Harlem have responded to the influx of charter schools by stepping up marketing efforts for their schools
-Here's some more info on the Harlem Children's zone, including one of the videos we watched in class today (here's the other video).
-Here's some background on the panel that recently proposed a set of national standards.
-Wake County, NC had perhaps the most aggressive integration/busing program in the country. As of a couple weeks ago, it looks like that will come to an end. Here's the background on that decision.
-Jay Mathews wonders if we shouldn't train teachers more like we train ice skaters
-After surging in popularity over the past few years, charter schools are starting to receive some pushback. The state senator from Harlem, the hotbed of charter schools, recently put his foot down on the issue. And conservative researcher Diane Ravitch (who was assistant secretary of education under Bush I) recently released a book indicating a change of heart on school choice. Here, some experts discuss why the recent spate of negative press.
-Meanwhile, traditional public schools in Harlem have responded to the influx of charter schools by stepping up marketing efforts for their schools
-Here's some more info on the Harlem Children's zone, including one of the videos we watched in class today (here's the other video).
-Here's some background on the panel that recently proposed a set of national standards.
-Wake County, NC had perhaps the most aggressive integration/busing program in the country. As of a couple weeks ago, it looks like that will come to an end. Here's the background on that decision.
-Jay Mathews wonders if we shouldn't train teachers more like we train ice skaters
Politics Update
-The latest projection is that the Democrats will control 55 seats in the Senate after the November election.
-As the Democrats get ready to use reconciliation to push through their final health care bill, Harry Reid sent this letter to Mitch McConnell, most notably including this section:
“As you know, the vast majority of bills developed through reconciliation were passed by Republican Congresses and signed into law by Republican Presidents – including President Bush’s massive, budget-busting tax breaks for multi-millionaires. Given this history, one might conclude that Republicans believe a majority vote is sufficient to increase the deficit and benefit the super-rich, but not to reduce the deficit and benefit the middle class. Alternatively, perhaps Republicans believe a majority vote is appropriate only when Republicans are in the majority. Either way, we disagree.”
-Don't understand what's going on with health care? Here's a handy road map.
-David Brooks argues that both the left and the right misunderstand Obama and the current political climate, largely due to "the information cocoons that partisans live in these days". While Brooks doesn't like a lot of Obama's political positions, he writes that "he is still the most realistic and reasonable major player in Washington." And that
"Liberals are wrong to call him weak and indecisive. He’s just not always pursuing their aims. Conservatives are wrong to call him a big-government liberal. That’s just not a fair reading of his agenda."
-House GOP members have agreed to refrain from all earmark spending this year in hopes that they can campaign on a platform of fiscal responsibility. The problem, of course, is that earmarks help the people who vote for a particular congressperson and hurt the rest of the country (i.e. everybody who doesn't have a vote in that particular race)
-Here's the dope on Jim Bunning's last stand. Except, wait, he's at it again . . .
-Last, but certainly no least, here's Slate's guess as to what Obama's facebook feed might look like
-As the Democrats get ready to use reconciliation to push through their final health care bill, Harry Reid sent this letter to Mitch McConnell, most notably including this section:
“As you know, the vast majority of bills developed through reconciliation were passed by Republican Congresses and signed into law by Republican Presidents – including President Bush’s massive, budget-busting tax breaks for multi-millionaires. Given this history, one might conclude that Republicans believe a majority vote is sufficient to increase the deficit and benefit the super-rich, but not to reduce the deficit and benefit the middle class. Alternatively, perhaps Republicans believe a majority vote is appropriate only when Republicans are in the majority. Either way, we disagree.”
-Don't understand what's going on with health care? Here's a handy road map.
-David Brooks argues that both the left and the right misunderstand Obama and the current political climate, largely due to "the information cocoons that partisans live in these days". While Brooks doesn't like a lot of Obama's political positions, he writes that "he is still the most realistic and reasonable major player in Washington." And that
"Liberals are wrong to call him weak and indecisive. He’s just not always pursuing their aims. Conservatives are wrong to call him a big-government liberal. That’s just not a fair reading of his agenda."
-House GOP members have agreed to refrain from all earmark spending this year in hopes that they can campaign on a platform of fiscal responsibility. The problem, of course, is that earmarks help the people who vote for a particular congressperson and hurt the rest of the country (i.e. everybody who doesn't have a vote in that particular race)
-Here's the dope on Jim Bunning's last stand. Except, wait, he's at it again . . .
-Last, but certainly no least, here's Slate's guess as to what Obama's facebook feed might look like
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