Election Update

After surges by Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain died out, Newt Gingrich is now the Anti-Romney candidate of the moment.

Gingrich has surged from 11% a month ago to over 30% in the latest national polls.  He's also leading by double digits in the latest polls from Iowa, and seems to be narrowing Romney's lead in New Hampshire.  As a result, Intrade now gives Gingrich a 34.1% change of victory and Romney a 45.5% chance (a month ago, Romney hovered around 70% and Gingrich hovered just above 5%).

The jump in the polls has Gingrich facing an awful lot of questions about his personal life, past positions, and the legitimacy of his campaign.  Gingrich's ground organization is scrambling to expand after running only a bare bones operation since the summer -- Mitt Romney holds the clear edge in this regard, which can prove crucial in states with caucuses and on multi-state voting days.  Gingrich is also scrambling to raise money (where, once again, he badly trails Mitt Romney).  Despite these logistical issues, The Economist writes that Gingrich is the strongest of the prominent Anti-Romney candidates to date.

Nate Silver points out that Romney has won about 55% of major endorsements while Gingrich has only netted about 5% and wonders whether the institutional support is actually hurting Romney among Republicans deeply skeptical of institutions.

The latest poll on the Iowa race has a few interesting nuggets:
-Mitt Romney rated the lowest (40%), Ron Paul (81%) the highest, and Newt Gingrich in the middle (63%) when people were asked whether candidates said what they believed vs. what people wanted to hear most of the time
-22% of likely caucus voters said gay marriage should be legal and an additional 36% said civil unions should be legal, while only 38% said there should be no legal recognition of gay couples' relationships
-The highest percentage of people had been personally contacted by Ron Paul's campaign (77%), while Mitt Romney (60%) was in the middle of the pack and Newt Gingrich (38%) near the bottom.
-Among the 37% who reported watching Fox News the most for information about politics, Gingrich received four times as much support as Romney
-In a state with a large group of conservative Christians, Gingrich received three times as much support from self-identified evangelicals as Romney

Meanwhile, conservative columnist Ross Douthat wonders whether Christian conservatives, despite current poll numbers, really want to support Gingrich.

It isn’t just that he’s a master of selective moral outrage whose newfound piety has been turned to consistently partisan ends. It’s that his personal history — not only the two divorces, but also the repeated affairs and the way he behaved during the dissolution of his marriages — makes him the most compromised champion imaginable for a movement that’s laboring to keep lifelong heterosexual monogamy on a legal and cultural pedestal.

Links, 12-6-11

*David Brooks writes about Cass Sunstein, "the wonky liberal" (and co-author of Nudge) and his work administering the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which calculates the degree to which new regulations will help and hurt economic and social causes.

This office, under Sunstein, is incredibly wonky. It is composed of career number-crunchers of no known ideological bent who try to measure the trade-offs inherent in regulatory action. Deciding among these trade-offs involves relying on both values and data. This office has tried to elevate the role of data so that every close call is not just a matter of pleasing the right ideological army.

He concludes that "Obama’s regulations may be more intrusive than some of us would like. They are not tanking the economy."

*Paul Krugman dissects the Republican primary race, arguing that " There are only two ways to make the cut: to be totally cynical or totally clueless."  He says the reason Romney has so far failed to take control of the race is:

Mr. Romney’s strategy, in short, is to pretend that he shares the ignorance and misconceptions of the Republican base. He isn’t a stupid man — but he seems to play one on TV. Unfortunately from his point of view, however, his acting skills leave something to be desired, and his insincerity shines through. So the base still hungers for someone who really, truly believes what every candidate for the party’s nomination must pretend to believe. Yet as I said, the only way to actually believe the modern G.O.P. catechism is to be completely clueless.

Krugman worries about the potential of the nominee because, he says, "the fact that the party is committed to demonstrably false beliefs means that only fakers or the befuddled can get through the selection process."

*A new study finds a large jump in worldwide carbon emissions in 2010

*The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% last week, but mostly because people stopped looking for work

*Conservative Frederick Hess and liberal Linda Darling-Hammond, two of the leading experts on education policy, have co-authored an op-ed articulating the four things the federal government should do to/for schools when NCLB is reauthorized

*According to a new report, Tennessee's obesity rate dropped from 32.8% to 31.7% in the past year, dropping us from 3rd to 9th in the country.  The nation's obesity rate, though, increased from 26.9% to 27.5% (lots of stats here).

*Here's an article relevant to tomorrow's presentation on women at war

Links, 11-29-11

Herman Cain's woes continue.  His drop in the poll has coincided with a stream of women coming forth to claim he sexually harassed them, and now one is claiming she carried out an extramarital affair with Cain for a number of years.

Today's "Room for Debate" topic: Should Legislation Protect the Obese?

The Chevy Volt is being investigated after batteries burst into flames on two different cars while undergoing government testing.  Chevy is offering worried owners loaner cars while the investigation continues.

Newt Gingrich is now leading in the polls, but Mitt Romney continues to dominate the race for endorsements.

Here's a really interesting piece 60 Minutes did last week on Grover Norquist and "The Pledge"

In case you missed it, the deficit panel failed to reach a compromise . . . and nobody can agree why

Here's a thought-provoking (and intensely detailed) chart depicting how much money we spend on a wide variety of activities

A lot of felons can't vote (in NM and IA, almost one-quarter of African-American men can't vote because of their criminal record), but many are able to own guns

Links, 11-17-11

After last week's article on the struggles of schools in Tennessee to implement new teacher evaluation reforms, and another one on similar challenges in Chicago, the NY Times editorial board weighed in almost immediately by encouraging Tennessee not to give up.

Rolling Stone asks how the Republican Party became the party of the rich in a piece that reviews all changes to the tax code since 1980 and compares the positions of current and former Republican leaders and legislators.

Time is winding down for the deficit panel, and some Republicans may be open to agreeing to revenue increases that would be determined, in detail, by tax-writing committees of Congress at a later date.

The Supreme Court has agreed to take on the health care bill.  The NY Times writes that most of the changes are already in motion, cementing a place in history regardless of the outcome . . . but also that, regardless of the decision, the individual mandate (which Obama opposed during the election) could eventually be the bill's downfall.

Newt Gingrich is now tied with or ahead of Mitt Romney in 3 of the last 5 polls, but The Economist is skeptical that Gingrich is anything more than the popular anti-Romney candidate this week.

Here's a good overview of many of the arguments on both sides regarding inequality.

Is the Penn State scandal a focusing event?  The Governor of PA thinks that the law regarding reporting of child abuse will change in the near future.

A new study asks whether countries with stronger safety nets encourage more new business start-ups.

David Brooks offers a sometimes-serious analysis of the types of inequality that are ok and not ok in the US.

The Rise of Newt Gingrich

The latest two week rolling average of polls shows a small dip in support for Herman Cain and a large increase in support for Newt Gingrich.  As of the writing of this post, the averages of the last 7 polls stand at:

Romney: 22%
Cain: 21.3%
Gingrich: 17.6%
Perry: 9.9%

And the last three polls show Gingrich ahead of Cain.  Intrade now estimates a 14.7% chance of a Gingrich victory, up over 10 points from just month ago.

The Washington Post writes "OK, you can call it a comeback".

The NY Times attributes the surge to the stumbles of his competitors, writing that "Mr. Gingrich is getting another shot, if only by default".

CNN attributes much of the rise to Gingrich's debate performances, writing that, given the recent struggles of Cain and Perry, it now "Looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the 'anybody but Romney' candidate."  Another CNN piece points out that Gingrich has raised almost four times as much since October 1st as he did from July through September, crediting his rising poll numbers for the rising cash flow.

Nate Silver uses state and national polls to form trendlines for all the candidates and finds that due to Romney's downward trajectory and Gingrich's strong performance in state polls, the two are now virtually tied

Links, 11-10-11

Election Day yielded mixed results for both parties.  The biggest story was arguably Ohio voters' vote to overturn a new law limiting collective bargaining rights of public employees.  Democrats also won victories in Mississippi, where a measure to define an embryo as a person was defeated, and Arizona, where the chief architect of state's strict immigration law was voted out of office.  Republicans succeeded at tightening voting rules in Mississippi and won a referendum to exempt Ohio residents from the national health care law.

Rick Perry had another embarrassing slip-up at last night's debate, declaring that he would cut three departments and then only naming two (commerce and education) despite numerous attempts to remember and suggestions from other candidates, ultimately declaring "oops" (he later remembered that energy was the third). On Intrade, Perry's chances of winning the nomination dropped from 8% to 4% (placing him behind Romney, Gingrich, Cain, and Paul) almost immediately after the slip-up.

TN Senator Lamar Alexander has proposed a bill to eliminate the sales tax loophole for online purchases.

Joe Nocera wonders why Randi Weingarten, the head of the largest teachers' union in the country, is chumming around with Steven Brill, the author of a new book blaming teachers' unions for many of education system's woes.

Historically, liberals have tended to support anti-smoking efforts more than conservatives, but the roles have reversed as conservatives push e-cigarettes as a valid option while liberals wish to outlaw them.

Do parents hover over kids more than they used to?  Does this hovering tend to restrict the amount of exercise kids get in parks and playgrounds?  Check out these pictures and snippets of information.

Last week, in a somewhat controversial move, the federal reserve decided to hold interest rates steady

Links, 11-8-11

Some Tennessee Principals and teachers are extremely frustrated with the way they're being forced to evaluate or the way they're being evaluated under the new program enacted with the Race to the Top funds.

A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction preventing the FDA from mandating that cigarette manufacturers place new graphic warning labels on their products

Herman Cain has solidified his lead while Rick Perry has fallen into 4th place, but has Cain leveled off? Given the recent sexual harassment charges, it's something to watch.

Check out this interactive feature where Nate Silver calculates the odds of each Republican candidates becoming President based on the economy and Obama's approval numbers

More on the tightening of voter eligibility laws and how Tennesseans are responding

Education Links, 11-6-11

Another large-scale study of charter schools found that some did very well and some did poorly but, overall, there were no gains in achievement.  Andy Rotherham argues that we should learn to "live with some lemons" in order to find out what works.

 Mike Petrilli of the conservative Fordham Institute writes that we really have a "parenting problem" and not a "poverty problem" in education.

There are many different ways to extend the school day and year

Washington Post education columnist takes a break from extolling the virtues of "no excuses" schools to highlight a progressive school that's also made large test score gains

What would happen if value-added scores went on trial?

A new duo looks for strategies that work at the best charter schools 

Here are the best education books according to Ed Next and Dana Goldstein

The liberal Economic Policy Institute argues that even though returns to education have increased substantially in the last 30 years (those with college and advanced degrees have seen significant growth in income while those without college degrees have seen declines in income), that rising inequality is still mostly about the gains of the top 1%

Education Links, 11-2-11

*Eric Hanushek and Diane Ravitch are currently debating the merits of replacing/firing the bottom 10% of teachers.  The fourth installment should be posted on the Eduwonk blog tomorrow.  Here's a recap so far:


Part 1: Hanushek argues that we should "replace" the bottom 10% of teachers if we want to see large gains gains in achievement.

Part 2: Ravitch responds that "firing" teachers will only make teaching less attractive to the best and brightest and that we should instead focus recruiting, training, and retaining better teachers.

Part 3: Hanushek responds by arguing that Ravitch is mostly using red herrings and "applause lines" rather than disputing his point.  He further argues that identifying the worst teachers is eminently practical and that it will do a great deal of good.

*Jeff Brokaw argues that our fixation on the achievement gap means that our top-performing students get left behind

*A blogger from The Economist writes that middle-class families in Asia routinely spend 50% of their income on education

*Much attention has been given to Steven Brill's new book about teachers' unions and education reform.  Here's one breakdown of the evidence regarding the effects of unions.  And here's one good review of the book that asks whether teachers alone can overcome poverty.

*A new report from the conservative American Enterprise Institute concludes that teachers are paid too much.

*A senior fellow from the conservative Fordham Institute describes her visits to Chinese classrooms, complete with video examples

*Challis, ID is now evaluating teachers, in part, based on the degree to which they communicate with parents

Links, 11-1-11

Rick Perry announced a flat tax of his own last week.  The NY Times titled their initial report: Perry Plan Would Grant Big Tax Break to Wealthiest.  The Wall Street Journal highlighted the appeal of the plan to conservatives.  And The Economist characterizes the response as "a flat reception"

David Brooks says there are two types of inequality -- blue inequality and red inequality -- and that we're focusing on the wrong one.

Last week, The Economist argues that student loans repayment should be based more on income . . . this week President Obama introduced a new plan to make student loans easier to repay for lower-income students.

Nate Silver says Herman Cain is an outlier because he performs well in polls but on no other measures.

Here's The Economist's reaction to the CBO report on income inequality.  Who's in the 1%?  Here's a  closer look.

Airlines keep trying different boarding policies, but boarding times have doubled over the past decade.  What gives?

Facing legal pressure, the state agreed to stop arresting "Occupy Nashville" protesters in Legislative Plaza.

How much does the slump in housing spending have to do with our current downturn?

Here's a cartoon depicting how many teachers feel about recent policy.

Could devices like this play a future role in obesity policy?

Why spending more doesn't make us healthier (part 1)

Is OWS changing the discourse on our current downturn?  Maybe.

Why do the countries with the most economic disparity have the worst health outcomes?

Health Links

The Washington Post presents what is says are "five myths" about why Americans are fat

Which is better: eating one big meal, or many small meals?  It depends which study you believe.

The Senate has successfully blocked the FDA from limiting the amount of potatoes served in school meals

Here's the rundown on the study we discussed in class finding that decrease in smoking rates explains a small portion of the weight gain in the U.S. over the past few decades.

And here's a discussion of another study that finds that the average American needs to cut 240 calories per day to bring Americans' weights back to 1978 levels . . . and includes a discussion of how we could go about doing that

Lastly, here's the chart examining the 100+ causes of obesity that we discussed in class

Economic Links

Here's an excellent piece from Sunday's NY Times comparing the growth in societal equality with the concurrent decline in economic equality in the United States.

It's a puzzle: one dispossessed group after another — blacks, women, Hispanics and gays — has been gradually accepted in the United States, granted equal rights and brought into the mainstream. At the same time, in economic terms, the United States has gone from being a comparatively egalitarian society to one of the most unequal democracies in the world.

Sociologist Jerome Karabel's explanation is that no “advanced democracy is as obsessed with equality of opportunity or as relatively unconcerned with equality of condition.”

Meanwhile, the Wall St. Journal ran a piece discussing the increasing volatility of wealth in America: at the same time that the incomes of the top 1% began to take off, those same incomes started to rise and dip far more than other Americans'.  The piece also looks at the unfinished 90,000 square foot house in Florida that would have been the largest in the country.

A new poll on the Occupy Wall Street movement finds that 32% approve, 29% disapprove, and 40% don't have an opinion:

But opinions are clear about Wall Street itself. Eight in ten say Wall Street bankers are greedy, 77% say they're overpaid, and two-thirds say Wall Street bankers are dishonest, a number that has gone up by a third in roughly two decades.

Economists say the next decade will bring many new jobs for machines, but few for people.

Nick Kristof argues that the real solution to income inequality in this country is intensive early childhood education.

Here's a report comparing growth in inequality across OECD countries

Links 10-24-11

Here are some interesting graphs from a forthcoming book on shifts in the American electorate.  Among other trends, professionals have voted increasingly for Democratic candidates while Owners and Proprietors and have voted increasingly for Republican candidates.

Here's an analysis of Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan that finds that the bottom 90% of wage-earners would pay more under the plan.  Those findings have received a great deal of media attention . . .

So watch to see if Cain's poll numbers fall . . . as of the writing of this post, he leads Romney and Perry 26% to 25.5% to 12.5% in the average of the past six polls.

The NY Times Editorial page runs down a list of problems Alabama has experienced since the implementation of their new immigration law and concludes that "it's what they asked for"

How Congress shapes your commute

For those of you who wrote papers proposing policies that would encourage more commuters to use public transportation or bikes, or to carpool, you may want read about how Congress shapes your commute. Under federal law, employers can reimburse employees up to $230 per month in parking costs, tax-free. For the moment, they can do the same for public transportation, but that will soon revert back to the previous cap of $100.

Read more to find out what happened when workers were offered cash instead of transportation reimbursements . . .

Occupy Wall Street

In case you've had your head in the sand the past couple weeks, the "Occupy Wall Street" movement is the new media sensation.

CNN compares the Occupy Wall Street movement to the Tea Party movement.  So does Jon Stewart.  And, writing for the Washington Post, David Meyer argues that the movement learned a lot from the Tea Party.

On many levels, the comparison makes sense.  Read the beginning lyrics to this newly popular anthem and try to decide for which movement it was written:

Pay no attention to the people in the street,
Crying out for accountability.
Make a joke of what we believe;
Say we don't matter 'cuz you disagree.
Pretend you're kings, sit on your throne;
Look down your noses at the peasants below.



Here's the back story on the song

Who are the Protesters?

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) first expressed his concern about the "growing mobs" of OWS protesters, but later expressed some empathy, saying that "people are upset and they're justifiably frustrated."

Though unpopular in many places, most New York residents approve of the protesters.  Writing for the NY Times, Nick Kristof compares the OWS folks to those who protested in Egypt.


But, counter to conventional wisdom, Nate Silver points out that protests had larger turnouts in the West than in the East, and argues that the movement is much more popular in places with lots of self-identified liberals than registered Democrats.


The NY Times asked bankers privately what they thought of the protests, and the reaction wasn't too kind.

“Most people view it as a ragtag group looking for sex, drugs and rock ’n’ roll,” said one top hedge fund manager. “It’s not a middle-class uprising,” adds another veteran bank executive. “It’s fringe groups. It’s people who have the time to do this.”

What do They Want?

Many protesters cite economic inequality and disproportionate accrual of wealth by the top 1%: the upstart website New Bottom Line has the simple tagline "fighting for an economy that works for all of us".  Business Insider posts four charts that might explain the movement, which focus on the fortunes of corporations and the wealthiest Americans relative to the country as a whole.

Here's an updated version of the chart that we discussed in class, which displays the median income of each quintile plus the top 5% from 1966-2010 in addition to the median income of the top 1%, 0.1% and .001% from 1966-2008.  From 1966-1979, all grew relatively equally (between 6 and 25% total), while from 1980-2008, growth ranged from 0% for the bottom quintile to 641% for the top .001%.

Sources: Current Population Survey posted by the U.S. Census Bureau and IRS calculations posted by Emmanuel Saez

What will Happen?

Nobody's quite sure whether the protests will strengthen or fizzle out or whether they'll bring about any policy changes.  Indeed, many of the protesters seem rather unsure exactly what type of policy changes they want.

Robert Samuelson says that while "inequality is a new fault line . . . the backlash against the rich is the start of debate, not the end".

David Brooks seems unimpressed. He writes that "The Occupy Wall Street movement may look radical, but its members’ ideas are less radical than those you might hear at your average Rotary Club" and refers to them as "small thinkers"

Don’t be fooled by the clichés of protest movements past. The most radical people today are the ones that look the most boring. It’s not about declaring war on some nefarious elite. It’s about changing behavior from top to bottom.

Links 10-19-11

Here's one way to spur innovation and job growth: pledge hundreds of millions of dollars in tax breaks and infrastructure improvements to the prestigious school that will open a branch engineering campus in your city.  That's what NYC is doing in order to spur an East Coast version of Silicon Valley: Cornell and Stanford currently look like the front-runners.

Grover Norquist says he's not a huge fan of Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan because "it gives you three taxes, all of which could grow".  Norquist said he'd prefer to keep the present system and "prune it back like a rose bush".

And here's a chart capturing the liberal objection to the plan: that it (according to one calculation) lowers taxes for the rich while raising them for the poor and middle class.

Despite the criticisms, Cain's fast-rising poll numbers seem to have convinced Rick Perry that he should introduce his own flat-tax proposal . . . which he plans to do next week

We talked about Pigovian taxes in class . . . a new CDC study found that each serving of alcohol costs the country about $2 in social costs spread across federal, state, and local governments, drinkers, drinkers' families, health care providers, and victims.  The CDC director summarized the study as finding that "binge drinking results in binge spending".

David Brooks argues that while the media focuses on the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protesters, most Americans are in the middle of a "great restoration" with a back-to-basics financial focus characterized by three things: 1.) people returning to spending more than they take in (e.g. no more credit card debt); 2.) re-establishing the link between effort and reward (e.g. no more bailouts); and 3.) the resurgence of loyalty (e.g. working for one company rather than 5 or 10).

A new CNN poll finds declining support for the death penalty: from 56% in 2003 to 53% in 2009 to 48% (versus 50% who'd prefer life in prison) today.

Another new poll (this one by Gallup) is the first to find that a plurality support marijuana legalization, with 50% in favor and 46% opposed (the link also looks at trends in support over time).

If Republicans are right, we might be seeing an unintended consequence of the financial reform legislation.  The bill passed in Congress capped banks' processing fees for a debit card swipe at 24 cents -- the previous average was 40 cents.  Bank of America was recently the first major bank to announce consumer fees for debit card use ($5 per month, in their case).

And in a story that has nothing to do with politics but has generated substantial interest, the owner of a zoo in Zanesville, OH allegedly released most of his animals and then shot himself.  Police have been busily tracking down either 48 or 51 wild animals, including bears, tigers, wolves, and monkeys.

Environmental Policy Links

The shrimp haul in the Gulf of Mexico this year may be down by as much as 80% according to preliminary reports.  It's too early to draw conclusions yet, but many suspect it has something to do with the BP oil leak of last summer.

The Economist argues that while the solar industry is taking off, the wasteful subsidies that created it remain unjustifiable

The NY Times asks "where did global warming go?" and compares beliefs, rhetoric, and actions regarding climate change in the U.S. now to the U.S. in 2009 and the rest of the world now.

Here's an interactive activity that illustrates how cap and trade works under various scenarios

Links, 10-17-11

A rundown of some interesting links from the past week

The NY Times argues that voter fraud occurs far less often than does voter disenfranchisement in response to a new study finding that 14 states with Republican-dominated legislatures have recently passed 19 laws stiffening the requirements to vote.  The most popular change is requiring government-issued photo ID, which 5 million citizens do not possess (mostly low-income Americans, who tend to vote Democratic).

A new calculation by former Census Bureau workers finds that median income dropped twice as fast in the two years since the recession officially ended as it did during the year-and-a-half long recession itself.  Since 2007, median income has dropped 9.8% to just under $50,000 per household.

The small towns that will lose their post offices under USPS's new plan to avoid bankruptcy are crying foul.

Amazon's expansion makes for an interesting case study in politics.  When Amazon first announced plans to open a distribution center in TN, they did so on the promise that TN residents would not have to pay sales taxes on Amazon purchases.  This promise upset some businesses and legislators, but Amazon threatened to not open any distribution centers in TN if it was not upheld.  After a year of wrangling, the state and Amazon have negotiated a deal to not charge TN customers tax until 2014.  The Governor and many legislators seem to think this was a fair a deal, but a number of competing businesses remain outraged.

Paul Krugman criticizes the Republican candidates' economic plans and concludes that "the G.O.P. has responded to the crisis not by rethinking its dogma but by adopting an even cruder version of that dogma, becoming a caricature of itself"

In the real world, recent events were a devastating refutation of the free-market orthodoxy that has ruled American politics these past three decades. Above all, the long crusade against financial regulation, the successful effort to unravel the prudential rules established after the Great Depression on the grounds that they were unnecessary, ended up demonstrating — at immense cost to the nation — that those rules were necessary, after all.  

But down the rabbit hole, none of that happened. We didn’t find ourselves in a crisis because of runaway private lenders like Countrywide Financial. We didn’t find ourselves in a crisis because Wall Street pretended that slicing, dicing and rearranging bad loans could somehow create AAA assets — and private rating agencies played along. We didn’t find ourselves in a crisis because “shadow banks” like Lehman Brothers exploited gaps in financial regulation to create bank-type threats to the financial system without being subject to bank-type limits on risk-taking.  

No, in the universe of the Republican Party we found ourselves in a crisis because Representative Barney Frank forced helpless bankers to lend money to the undeserving poor.

And last, but certainly not least: here's a story from right here on campus about a focusing event that opened a policy window and resulted in policy changes.  Click the link to read about how a professor flying through the air resulted in visible changes . . .

Election Update

It's still too early for these polls to mean a whole lot, but the shift is undeniably dramatic regardless:

A little over two weeks ago, on September 27th, the two-week rolling average of polls was:
Perry: 27.7%
Romney 21.5%
Cain: 5.5% (5th place)

As of Sunday night, October 16th, it stands at:
Romney: 23.5%
Cain: 23.2%
Perry: 12.8%

Despite the shift in results, Cain badly trailed Perry and Romney in third-quarter fundraising: here's a table of all the candidates' fundraising totals

Superfreakonomics Controversy

The chapter on Global Cooling and Geoengineering set off a firestorm of controversy.  Now that you've read the chapter, you can read a few of the responses:

Real Climate says the Global Cooling research was not the way Levitt and Dubner describe it; that a few articles in the popular press said the opposite of what thousands of papers in academia were saying at the time.

Economist Paul Krugman puts economist Martin Weitzman's paper in context, saying that the estimate of a 5% chance of a catastrophe convinced we need to act immediately.

The Economist, which gave the first Freakonomics a glowing review, argues that Levitt and Dubner tried to be overly clever and simplistic with the end result being that they wrote a bad chapter that had little to do with economics.

With “Freakonomics”, the authors made pop economists of everyone, to the general good. To give the sequel’s readers this distorted lens through which to view climate change and its solution is to do readers a grave disservice.

Elizabeth Kolbert, writing for The New Yorker, reaches a similar conclusion.

And, on the Freakonomics blog, Stephen Dubner mounts a full-throated defense of the chapter, saying the he and Levitt are not climate skeptics and didn't do most of the things they were accued of

Election Links 10-11-11

After Chris Christie's and Sarah Palin's decisions not to run, the Republican primary field looks set. Charles Blow argues that this means the Republicans could be in trouble and points out that in past elections far more voters could name frontrunners than in this election cycle.

The most notable change of the past couple weeks has been the fall of Rick Perry and the concurrent surge of Herman Cain.  According to the latest polls, Cain is now in second place in the race.  The poll averages as of Monday night were:

Romney: 21.9%

Cain: 16.4%

Perry: 15.3%

Meanwhile, Intrade -- a market-based prediction site in which users can buy and share stock in candidates -- predicts these odds of victory (again, as of Monday night):

Romney: 61.1%

Perry: 18.6%

Cain: 8.9%

Huntsman: 3.4%

Paul: 2.2%

The shift in the polls has led to some changes in strategy.  Perry is now spending more time on debate prep and, at the urging of his aides, sleeping.  Romney, meanwhile, is referring to Perry as a "desperate candidate" in an attempt to de-legitimatize his candidacy.

Cain will certainly be the center of attention at tonight's debate.  Because seating is based on poll position, Cain will sit in the middle -- next to Mitt Romney.  Some don't expect that to go well.

Meanwhile, Bill Keller is skeptical of Cain and argues that Perry may be the last, best hope for a Tea Party movement that remains largely unenthusiastic about the candidates.

“Rick Perry is the only candidate who would actually close down a cabinet department,” one longtime admirer told me, when I asked whether a President Perry would disappoint the Tea Party. “You would see a very happy base — at least for the first term.”

Lastly, "Joe the Plumber" is running for congress in Ohio

Links, 10-5-11

The top two news stories may be good news for Democrats:

1.) Chris Christie has, once again, announced he will not be running for President this year, disappointing many Republicans who saw him as the only potential candidate who would have a really good change of defeating Obama in a general election

2.) In an election watched across the nation, the Democratic incumbent retained his position as Governor of West Virginia despite a recent rightward shift in WV politics at the national level and an intense campaign to nationalize the election and link Governor Tomblin to Obama and the new health care law

In what turns out to have been perfect timing given the first story, David Brooks yesterday wrote a column entitled In Defense of Romney, arguing that Romney is a perfectly good candidate for the Republicans, despite what many see as a major flaw:

The central problem is that Mitt Romney doesn’t fit the mold of what many Republicans want in a presidential candidate. They don’t want a technocratic manager. They want a bold, blunt radical outsider who will take on the establishment, speak truth to power and offend the liberal news media

Last week, it appeared that even though Perry was falling in the polls that Romney wasn't rising to take his place.  This week, it appears that Romney is starting to become the favored candidate.  But a look at the trends in the polls shows that Herman Cain is the fastest riser; the 4 polls since September 25th have Romney at 17-25%, Cain at 17%, and Perry at 12-19%.

In an ever intensifying debate about spending, the House and Senate have passed very different bills, with the House bill cutting funding for the health bill, education, Planned Parenthood, Pell Grants, NPR, and other programs

Here's a relevant online debate related to yesterday's class debate: Do Taxes Narrow the Wealth Gap? - Room for Debate

I don't usually post from overtly liberal and conservative blogs, but this is an interesting economic analogy relevant to what we discussed in class yesterday.  In Short-term Gimmicks, the author compares the Republicans' insistence on spending cuts to a doctor who recommends diet and exercise to a patient having a heart attack

Here's an interesting piece about the thousands immigrants -- both illegal and illegal -- who are fleeing towns in Alabama after a court ruling upheld a strict new anti-illegal immigration law

The two-week old "Occupy Wall Street" movement is now receiving official endorsements from various local unions -- meaning the ranks of protesters could soon swell with union members

Economic Links: 9-29

Here's the explanation from S&P as to why they downgraded America's credit rating

here's a chart of job losses during this downturn compared to all downturns since the Great Depression

This piece compares Congress' reaction to the Great Depression in 1934 and the Great Recession today

According to the WSJ, wealthier households pay more than their fair share of taxes

According to The Economist, during past budget crunches we've been more willing to raise taxes

Also according The Economist's calculations, the US has lower effective tax rates on a $100K income than most other developed countries

Here's the original op-ed by Warren Buffet, and Obama's budget suggesting we should adopt "the Buffet Rule"

Here's an update on the Deficit Panel (or "supercongress") which is facing pressure to go beyond their original  debt cutting mandate

Here's what Americans are spending less on during this economic downturn

Here's a chart of our debt to GDP ratio throughout our nation's history

And here's a chart of the same ratio for all the world's countries

Here's an interactive exploration of the deficit and would it would take to balance the budget

here's how most readers decided to close the deficit

Links, 9-26-11

The biggest news is that Congress has reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown.  Or, perhaps more accurately, FEMA's budgeting pre-empted the debate from continuing.  Republicans wanted to offset federal disaster spending with other cuts while Democrats did not . . . FEMA says it now thinks it has just enough money to fit aid for the latest floods, hurricanes, etc. into its normal operating budget.

Rick Perry still has a large lead in the latest poll on the Republican primaries, but the same poll also finds that Romney is more likely to beat Obama next November.  As the race has increasingly focuses on these two candidates, they have traded barbs -- with Perry now focusing on Romney's well-to-do background.  Meanwhile, many remain unhappy with their choices and are eager for others, particularly NJ Governor Chris Christie to join the race . . . Nate Silver asks whether Chris Christie's potential entrance into the presidential race is a bigger threat to Mitt Romney or Rick Perry.

Obama announced that states would be given waivers to the No Child Left Behind law, which both avoids dramatic increases in the number of schools declared failing over the next three years and circumvents partisan bickering in Congress.

Liberal sites have given a lot of attention to Massachusetts Senatorial Candidate Elizabeth Warren's statement about the "social contract" and "class warfare" while on the campaign trail.  Here's a conservative rebuttal.

Here's a delicious (pun intended) political story about potatoes.  The new recommendations from the USDA call for far fewer potatoes to be served in schools in order to make breakfasts and lunches healthier . . . so members of Congress from both sides of the aisle who reside in large potato producing states (e.g. CO and ME) are banding together to make sure the new rules aren't put into place.


Joshua Holland runs down eight policies Republicans used to support, but now oppose

Links, 9-22-11

Despite House Speaker John Boehner's assurances that the bill would pass, the House yesterday failed to pass a temporary spending bill that would allow the government to function from October 1st through November 18th and provide aid to victims of the recent hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, and floods.  6 Democrats voted "yes" and 48 Republicans voted "no".

Democrats remained nearly united against the measure because they saw the amount of disaster assistance — $3.65 billion — as inadequate, and they objected to the Republicans’ insistence on offsetting some of the cost with cuts elsewhere.

The vote also showed the Republican leadership’s continuing struggle to corral the most conservative members of the caucus, as more than 40 Republicans rejected the measure because they did not believe it cut spending enough.

Since Republicans control the House, they could go back to the drawing board and devise a plan to placate some of those 48 members that would then pass.  But the Democrats control the Senate and Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority leader Mitch McConnell already passed a bill supported by Democrats and 10 Republicans that provides twice as much disaster assistance.


The other big news of the day was that Troy Davis, a convicted murderer, was put to death in Georgia.  After years of appeals and protests, thousands of people in the United States and around the world had come to believe that Davis was innocent.  After delivering a petition signed by 630,00 people -- including 51 members of congress -- to the Georgia Parole Board, supporters were hopeful.  But the Parole Board voted 3-2 in favor of rejecting the appeal.

The Supreme Court briefly delayed the execution last night, but declined to stay the execution and removed the last legal hurdle around 11pm.  The Supreme Court has shown an increasing reluctance to intervene in death penalty cases since the retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor shifted the court rightward.  O'Connor was replaced by Anthony Kennedy, formerly considered a member of the conservative wing of the court, as the swing vote.  New Chief Justice John Roberts has led an ascendant conservative wing consisting of Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia, and Samuel Alito to a record number of 5-4 decisions in which the liberal wing (consisting of Obama appointees Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, Stephen Breyer, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg) has consistently formed a 4-vote minority.

Links, 9-21-11

Rick Perry is solidifying his reputation as an excellent fundraiser, which likely will only help his current lead in the polls.  Especially since NJ Governor Chris Christie and House Budget Chair Paul Ryan have both declined to run on multiple occasions.

Forbes released their annual list of the 400 wealthiest individuals in the country.  Despite the economic downturn, the group did quite well last year.  Bill Gates maintained his top spot, and Mark Zuckerberg was the biggest gainer.

I posted earlier in the week that Obama's tough stance on the debt negotiations was due largely to the fact that he felt that House Speaker John Boehner had refused to negotiate in good faith the last time around.  It should be no surprise, then, that Boehner is now on the attack against Obama and his jobs plan:

Watching the president here over the last couple of weeks has been a bit disappointing, and it’s been a bit disappointing because it’s pretty clear that the president’s decided to forget his role as president and leader of our nation in a time of economic uncertainty and to begin the campaign for his reelection some 14 months away. Our country needs leaders.

Obama's Deficit Plan

Yesterday, President Obama unveiled his deficit plan  -- which would lower the deficit by a total of $3.1 trillion over 10 years (according to the CBO) through a variety of spending cuts and around $1 trillion in tax increases.  But the big news was the new tone he took in the speech.  For most of his term Obama has tried to present himself as the centrist or the reasonable adult when proposing new ideas (which, he would emphasize, are compromises between the desires of the two parties).  With his approval rating at an all-time low, frustration growing about the Democratic base, and still smarting from what the administration perceived as three slaps to the face by House Speaker John Boehner, his tone turned more strident and he promised to veto any plan that did not include tax increases.

“I will not support — I will not support — any plan that puts all the burden for closing our deficit on ordinary Americans. And I will veto any bill that changes benefits for those who rely on Medicare but does not raise serious revenues by asking the wealthiest Americans or biggest corporations to pay their fair share,” Mr. Obama said. “We are not going to have a one-sided deal that hurts the folks who are most vulnerable.”

David Brooks writes that this signals a return to politics as usual, headlining his op-ed "Obama Rejects Obamaism".  In a news analysis, the NY Times writes that

This time, rather than trying to identify common ground, the administration is entering the negotiations in the same kind of tough position that Republicans adopted during the debt-ceiling debate, emphasizing the traditional financial priorities of the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans focused on the fact that much of the spending cuts included in the plan would already happen anyway (e.g. savings from reducing troops in Afghanistan and Iraq) and criticized the plan as "class warfare."

The Jobs Bill

Unemployment has been stubbornly high for years now: while the stimulus package likely saved or created somewhere near the goal of 4 million jobs, the country lost 8.8 million jobs during that time frame -- resulting in the current 9.1% unemployment rate.  Many are starting to believe that something new is necessary to spur more job creation.

On September 8th, President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress to propose a new jobs bill (here's a handy chart and summary) composed of an extension of payroll tax cuts, hiring incentives for businesses, an infrastructure bank, and aid to local and state governments, and paid for by the elimination of various tax breaks for businesses and the wealthy.

Polling guru Nate Silver breaks down all the recent polls on the various parts of the plan and finds that, much like the health care plan, the individual pieces are mostly popular among Americans.  As such, he predicts that Democrats will focus on advocating for the individual pieces while Republicans will campaign against the bill as a whole, or even just the idea of the bill.  Expect to hear the word "jobs" from Democrats and the word "stimulus" from Republicans.

Liberal columnist Paul Krugman, who has long criticized Obama's economic plans for not being bold enough, writes

I was favorably surprised by the new Obama jobs plan, which is significantly bolder and better than I expected. It’s not nearly as bold as the plan I’d want in an ideal world. But if it actually became law, it would probably make a significant dent in unemployment.

Conservative columnist David Brooks writes that he can support a portion of the bill even though it is, in a lot of ways, another stimulus package

There is clearly now a significant risk of a double-dip recession. That would be terrible for America’s workers, fiscal situation and psyche. This prospect is enough to shock even us stimulus skeptics out of our long-term focus. It’s enough to force us to contemplate the possibility of another stimulus package . . . 

Personally, my bottom line is this: I think the president has earned a second date. He’s put together a moderate set of stimulus ideas. His plan may not be enough to jolt prosperity, but it might maintain its current slow growth.

Some firms, however, say they won't dramatically increase hiring because of the bill.

Links 9-7-11

*Thomas Friedman writes that Obama's jobs speech tomorrow is an excellent time for some truth-telling.  He writes about a recent column that argues dictatorships and democracies are failing for the same reason: they're not telling the truth to their citizens.

Can you remember the last time you felt a national leader looked us in the eye and told us there is no easy solution to our major problems, that we’ve gotten into this mess by being self-indulgent or ideologically fixated over two decades and that now we need to spend the next five years rolling up our sleeves, possibly accepting a lower living standard and making up for our excesses?

He also uses the upcoming 9/11 anniversary to compare our nation's response to 9/11 to our nation's response to the cold war: "we used the cold war and the Russian threat as a reason and motivator to do big, hard things together . . . We used the cold war to reach the moon and spawn new industries. We used 9/11 to create better body scanners and more T.S.A. agents."

*Local cigarette smokers have found a loophole in the tobacco tax laws.  Since only manufactured cigarettes are taxed, they can visit local tobacco shops, purchase tobacco and rolling papers, and put them in the new tobacco rolling vending machines.

*An op-ed from Sunday argues that research has found that happier workers work harder but that this seems to be forgotten by companies and bosses.  More specifically, the simple act of making progress contributes more to worker satisfaction than any other factor . . . but supporting progress was ranked dead last by managers when surveyed as important motivators for their employees.

*What's the best way to tell how badly damaged a location is during hurricane season?  The Waffle House Index has been suggested.

Links, 9-6-11

Liberals and environmental groups are fuming after Obama backtracked on his promise to have the EPA enforce stricter ozone pollution limits.  Said the director of moveon.org, a leading liberal group, “Stuff like this is devastating to the hope and passion that fuels the volunteers that made the president’s 2008 campaign so unique and successful.”

The US Postal Service is on the verge of bankruptcy due to a confluence of factors.  Law mandates that they must have post offices, and deliver mail to, even the most isolated, rural locations, that postage can be raised no faster than inflation, and that mail must be delivered 6 days per week.  Meanwhile, contracts with postal workers' unions and a massive decline in mail (due to both the internet and the recession) have reduced business without reducing payrolls.

Robert Reich discusses perhaps the largest economic question for the future of America: what should we do about the declining middle class?  Over the past 30 years, the incomes of the wealthiest Americans have skyrocketed while the rest of the workers' wages have been virtually flat.  In the past, increases in productivity yielded increases in wages, but the two have split the last 30 or so years -- due, mostly, to a combination of globalization, computers, and the decline of unions.

For related reasons, Jim Hoffa -- a major union leader -- over the weekend called many American companies unpatriotic for not spending money on American workers.

A recent poll found that 8 in 10 Americans believe we're currently in a recession (officially, we're not), which might be related to the job numbers released last week . . .

Link Round-Up, 8-31-11

Here's an excellent case study in policy implementation: the new rules regarding the identification of criminal suspects by witnesses that have been implemented in some places (and now mandated in NJ), while others insist the old rules were fine.

President Obama has chosen a new head of the Council of Economic Advisers: Alan Krueger, an economist at Princeton who studies the job market among other topics.

On the occasion of the installation of the new Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial in D.C., Congressman John Lewis writes that the voter identification laws being passed in states around the country are just another attempt to keep minorities and the poor from voting -- a poll tax by another name

Here's a brief synopsis of the race for the Republican nomination, courtesy of The Economist

Liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that the Republican Party has become the "anti-science party" as Republican candidate Jon Huntsman warned about.  He concludes by arguing that

the odds are that one of these years the world’s greatest nation will find itself ruled by a party that is aggressively anti-science, indeed anti-knowledge. And, in a time of severe challenges — environmental, economic, and more — that’s a terrifying prospect.

Link Round-Up 8-28-11

Health
Local schools are serving funnel cakes, among other sugary items, for breakfast

Here's a good visual as to why obesity is such a difficult policy problem: just look at the sheer number of factors that influence obesity

Education
America lags behind peer nations in math achievement; two writers argue that teaching HS math in task-oriented chunks rather than the current out of context progression can help us catch up

Politics
Despite being written off by national media, Ron Paul is currently faring better against Obama than Michelle Bachmann in the latest poll . . . though advocating for the elimination of FEMA during a hurricane may not make him the most popular man in some areas right now

This is a couple weeks old now, but after Rick Perry's entrance into the field (and surge in the polls) the WSJ led a stream of news outlets questioning whether the best possible Republican candidates are currently running . . . meanwhile, the latest poll shows the Republican voters are coming to terms with the candidates -- only 30% now report that they're dissatisfied

So-called "super-PACs" with unlimited donations are playing a large role in the upcoming Presidential race and are transitioning from issue-focused organizations to pseudo-campaigns supporting one candidate.

Other
The mayor of NYC ordered all coastal areas evacuated, but a number of residents are stayed put anyway

The new Vanderbilt coaching staff is pounding greatness into the heads of its players

A Few Interesting Political Links

David Brooks says we better start to take Rick Perry seriously because he could be our next President

Meanwhile, Michelle Bachmann is stepping up her rhetoric and promising to "lock the doors and shut off all the lights" of the EPA when she becomes President

A new Pew poll has found sizable changes in party identification since the last election, mostly due to shifts among White voters: here are some interesting charts to look through

After a death during fraternity hazing there last year, the President of Cornell is calling for the anti-hazing laws of NY state and others to be followed.

A recent law mandating drug testing for welfare recipients in Florida may end up costing the state more money than it saves if the current low rate of positive results continues

The Ryan Debt Plan

here are the basics

the plan has drawn praise from The Economist, but scorn from liberal commentators

Krugman thinks the projected unemployment rate is absurd (even more)

Before it was released, Dionne wondered if Obama would stand up for the poor, and now Krugman wonders the same thing

Conservative reaction is more more muted, perhaps because the plan could be risky for Republicans

Obama will address the issue this week, but nobody's quite sure what he'll say

More Poverty Policy Links

This magazine issue includes articles about: physiological stress and the achievement-income gap, poverty and childhood development, and some policies that can combat these problems

Here's the article we discussed in class on Wednesday on the distribution of wealth in the US (it's quite short)

A NYT debate: should we care about rising wealth inequality?

A lot of millionaires don't feel all that rich

Unlike federal income taxes, lower-income workers pay a higher percentage of their income to state taxes than do higher-income workers.  Tennessee has one of the highest ratios.

Paul Krugman writes that we seem to have forgotten about the unemployed in our current political battles

here's a long essay on which kinds of income inequality might matter and which kinds might not

here are a whole bunch of charts on poverty and inequality: some are useful and some are not

here's an interactive graph that explores changes in income inequality over time

Interactive Activities

First, look at this interactive graphic on class mobility in the United States.  To get an estimate of wealth, you can estimate your family's home value here


Then, do this simulation -- it's a bit on the melodramatic side, but will help you think through some of the daily decisions confronted by the working poor: http://playspent.org/

Poverty Policy Links

Over the past 30 years, men have become more likely to earn low wages while women have become less likely

Here's some background (and part 2) on an experiment to pay the poor for certain behaviors ("conditional cash transfers") that had some success in Brazil and Mexico.

Here's an interesting graphic displaying the minimum wage versus the poverty level

Does failing to provide a child with breakfast make a parent negligent?

The US doesn't do very well on some measures of equality and prosperity and, by some measures, may have among the lowest income mobility of any advanced nation, though this differs by race, despite the fact that Americans believe we're among the highest and most equal

Ed Policy Links

-Here's an excellent synopsis of the current situation with NCLB, courtesy of the The Economist.  You should read it.

-The liberal Nick Kristof argues that we must pay teachers more if we ever want to achieve the same results as other countries, where teachers are higher paid and held in higher esteem.  The conservative Mike Petrilli argues that we should actually pay most teachers the same (meaning newer teachers would be paid more and senior teachers less) since teacher usually reach peak effectiveness after about 3-5 years.

-This piece decrying a new policy in Chicago requiring schools to serve breakfast at the beginning of first period (which will, according to the author, waste valuable class time) stands in stark contrast to this recent brief journal article entitled "Why Education Researchers Should Take School Food Seriously" (which discusses research linking nutrition and educational performance).

-Florida has a new law that essentially does away with teacher tenure

Education Policy Links 3-16-11

For many, "teacher quality" is at the heart of the debate over how to improve schools and close the achievement gap.  A number of reforms are being tried in order to recruit, train, and retain better teachers and fire worse teachers -- one of these is a new charter school in NYC that pays its teachers $125K per year (60 Minutes Video).  The Economist cheers many of these recent reforms, while Diane Ravitch is decidedly more skeptical.

Here's a quick summary of a few of the aspects of NCLB that we discussed in class on Monday.  Cheating on tests is another unintended consequence we didn't discuss.

Robert Samuelson points out that Americans actually don't do too poorly on international assessments if we compare by racial sub-group, arguing that we have a larger problem with culture than with schools.

Incentive pay for teachers is popular reform nowadays, but a just-released evaluation of school-based incentive pay found no positive effects.  The first randomized experiment of performance pay in schools found similar results last fall.

Potential Nuclear Crisis in Japan

Here's a primer on the situation.

Here's an interactive diagram of what's happening

Here's some more background on nuclear meltdowns

Here's the conversation that CNN's been referencing on-air

Update: And here's further evidence that this could be a focusing event that results in fewer nuclear power plants in the future: an editorial in the NY Times arguing that we should be cautious about building and maintaining nuclear power plants.

Update (3-21): Here's a summary of the problems with each reactor -- the situation finally seems to be improving, though it's certainly not over

Education Links

-President Obama gave a speech on the renewal of NCLB this morning.  Here's the White House press release.

-As 2014 draws near and benchmarks are higher, the Department of Education estimates that up to 82% of schools could be declared failing this year, though not everybody is buying that estimate.

-Arts education in schools is dropping, particularly in higher-poverty schools, as schools focus on math and reading in order to meet NCLB benchmarks (see below).

More on Mandating Health Insurance

A few other ways to nudge more people toward purchasing insurance

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/08/133503755/alternatives-to-mandating-insurance-maybe

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/health/policy/15mandate.html

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/02/health_reform_repeal

Health/Health Care Links

Here's an interesting research tidbit regarding health: IQ is a strong predictor of heart disease.  Yes, that means that people with a lower IQ are more likely to get heart disease?  Why?  Read the article to learn the whole story, but it's likely that many physiological difficulties that impact IQ also affect people's hearts.


There's growing evidence that pre-natal experiences dramatically impact various life outcomes


Some more background on the health care systems of other countries


More on lifetime limits and the health care law


The difficulty of buying individual insurance coverage