Monday, February 6, 2012

Links, 2-6-12

The economy added 243,000 jobs in January (257,000 by private companies and -14,000 government jobs), and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% -- the lowest in 3 years -- probably in part because banks are starting to lend money again.  The report came as a bit of a surprise, as economists were predicting about 100K fewer jobs created, sending Republicans scrambling to re-write their critical press releases . . . but they eventually recovered, with Reince Priebus, the RNC Chair, saying that "our economy remains unacceptably weak".  Unlike previous reports, this one might signal real long-term growth ahead.  As The Economist reports:

Is the jobs recovery finally for real?
It certainly feels that way. Before getting into the caveats, let's look at January's solid employment report. Non-farm employment jumped 243,000, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%.
There were no obvious asterisks marring the positive tone of the report. Payroll gains were broad based. Construction rose 21,000, not surrendering any of its mild-weather gains of December. Manufacturing jumped 50,000, corroborating other signs of strength in the industrial sector. Government employment is becoming less of a drag: it fell only 14,000.
Prior declines in the unemployment rate were often the result of people dropping out of the labour force and thus no longer being counted as unemployed. Not this time. In January the number of employed people jumped 631,000, after adjusting for new population estimates. That’s according to the household survey which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, and often produces different results from the bigger and better-known payroll survey.

No one stat can tell us everything, but previous elections indicate that continued growth of 150K+ jobs per month would be good news for Obama's reelection chances. But Paul Krugman cautions that even this rate of job growth will not return the country to full employment until 2019.

Romney easily won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday.  Here are the entrance poll results.  Next week will bring caucuses in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota.  Here's the full primary calendar, including past results.

It may be a little late for this, given that it's looking more and more likely that Romney will run away with the nomination, but here's a chart comparing the candidates' stances on the issues.

Sheldon Adelson, whose $10 million in donations to the "Super PAC" supporting Newt Gingrich may be singularly responsible for Gingrich's ability to continue in the race, has assured Romney's backers in private that he'll support Romney even more generously once it becomes clear that Gingrich no longer has a shot.  Romney, meanwhile, now says that he "misspoke" when declaring his lack of concern for the very poor last week.  And Fareed Zakaria chastises Romney for misinterpreting the phrase "Post-American World," writing that in his book of the same title, he begins by writing that "this is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else."

President Obama is now arguing that his desire for higher taxes on the wealth is based on his own personal faith, saying at the National Prayer Breakfast that "For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus's teaching that for unto whom much is given, much shall be required"

A cost-benefit analysis of Alabama's new strict immigration law by a University of Alabama economist finds that law could shrink the state's GDP by as much as 6% and cost the state over $200 million in sales and income taxes, though he notes that many of the benefits are hard to quantify, and says the remaining question for state legislators is "Are the benefits of the new immigration law worth the costs?"

Conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes that the coverage of the Komen foundation/Planned Parenthood kerfuffle last week shows that the media have "blinders" on when it comes to abortion

Conservative complaints about media bias are sometimes overdrawn. But on the abortion issue, the press’s prejudices are often absolute, its biases blatant and its blinders impenetrable. In many newsrooms and television studios across the country, Planned Parenthood is regarded as the equivalent of, well, the Komen foundation: an apolitical, high-minded and humanitarian institution whose work no rational person — and certainly no self-respecting woman — could possibly question or oppose.
But of course millions of Americans — including, yes, millions of American women — do oppose Planned Parenthood. They oppose the 300,000-plus abortions it performs every year (making it the largest abortion provider in the country), and they oppose its tireless opposition to even modest limits on abortion.


Liberal columnist Maureen Dowd writes that the reason Gingrich is still in the race is because of his wife.

You can find her anytime standing statue-still on stage next to Newt as he speaks, gazing at him with such frozen attentiveness that she could give a master class to Nancy Reagan . . .
“She’s a transformational wife,” Alex Castellanos, the Republican strategist, told me. “She’s the wife who makes the candidate think he is destiny’s gift to mankind, born to greater things.” . . .
When Barack is cocky and looks at Michelle, he might see her thinking: “You’re no messiah. Pick up your socks.” But when Newt is cocky and looks at Callista, he sees her thinking: “You are the messiah. We’ll have your socks bronzed.”


No comments:

Post a Comment