The Jobs Bill

Unemployment has been stubbornly high for years now: while the stimulus package likely saved or created somewhere near the goal of 4 million jobs, the country lost 8.8 million jobs during that time frame -- resulting in the current 9.1% unemployment rate.  Many are starting to believe that something new is necessary to spur more job creation.

On September 8th, President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress to propose a new jobs bill (here's a handy chart and summary) composed of an extension of payroll tax cuts, hiring incentives for businesses, an infrastructure bank, and aid to local and state governments, and paid for by the elimination of various tax breaks for businesses and the wealthy.

Polling guru Nate Silver breaks down all the recent polls on the various parts of the plan and finds that, much like the health care plan, the individual pieces are mostly popular among Americans.  As such, he predicts that Democrats will focus on advocating for the individual pieces while Republicans will campaign against the bill as a whole, or even just the idea of the bill.  Expect to hear the word "jobs" from Democrats and the word "stimulus" from Republicans.

Liberal columnist Paul Krugman, who has long criticized Obama's economic plans for not being bold enough, writes

I was favorably surprised by the new Obama jobs plan, which is significantly bolder and better than I expected. It’s not nearly as bold as the plan I’d want in an ideal world. But if it actually became law, it would probably make a significant dent in unemployment.

Conservative columnist David Brooks writes that he can support a portion of the bill even though it is, in a lot of ways, another stimulus package

There is clearly now a significant risk of a double-dip recession. That would be terrible for America’s workers, fiscal situation and psyche. This prospect is enough to shock even us stimulus skeptics out of our long-term focus. It’s enough to force us to contemplate the possibility of another stimulus package . . . 

Personally, my bottom line is this: I think the president has earned a second date. He’s put together a moderate set of stimulus ideas. His plan may not be enough to jolt prosperity, but it might maintain its current slow growth.

Some firms, however, say they won't dramatically increase hiring because of the bill.

Links 9-7-11

*Thomas Friedman writes that Obama's jobs speech tomorrow is an excellent time for some truth-telling.  He writes about a recent column that argues dictatorships and democracies are failing for the same reason: they're not telling the truth to their citizens.

Can you remember the last time you felt a national leader looked us in the eye and told us there is no easy solution to our major problems, that we’ve gotten into this mess by being self-indulgent or ideologically fixated over two decades and that now we need to spend the next five years rolling up our sleeves, possibly accepting a lower living standard and making up for our excesses?

He also uses the upcoming 9/11 anniversary to compare our nation's response to 9/11 to our nation's response to the cold war: "we used the cold war and the Russian threat as a reason and motivator to do big, hard things together . . . We used the cold war to reach the moon and spawn new industries. We used 9/11 to create better body scanners and more T.S.A. agents."

*Local cigarette smokers have found a loophole in the tobacco tax laws.  Since only manufactured cigarettes are taxed, they can visit local tobacco shops, purchase tobacco and rolling papers, and put them in the new tobacco rolling vending machines.

*An op-ed from Sunday argues that research has found that happier workers work harder but that this seems to be forgotten by companies and bosses.  More specifically, the simple act of making progress contributes more to worker satisfaction than any other factor . . . but supporting progress was ranked dead last by managers when surveyed as important motivators for their employees.

*What's the best way to tell how badly damaged a location is during hurricane season?  The Waffle House Index has been suggested.

Links, 9-6-11

Liberals and environmental groups are fuming after Obama backtracked on his promise to have the EPA enforce stricter ozone pollution limits.  Said the director of moveon.org, a leading liberal group, “Stuff like this is devastating to the hope and passion that fuels the volunteers that made the president’s 2008 campaign so unique and successful.”

The US Postal Service is on the verge of bankruptcy due to a confluence of factors.  Law mandates that they must have post offices, and deliver mail to, even the most isolated, rural locations, that postage can be raised no faster than inflation, and that mail must be delivered 6 days per week.  Meanwhile, contracts with postal workers' unions and a massive decline in mail (due to both the internet and the recession) have reduced business without reducing payrolls.

Robert Reich discusses perhaps the largest economic question for the future of America: what should we do about the declining middle class?  Over the past 30 years, the incomes of the wealthiest Americans have skyrocketed while the rest of the workers' wages have been virtually flat.  In the past, increases in productivity yielded increases in wages, but the two have split the last 30 or so years -- due, mostly, to a combination of globalization, computers, and the decline of unions.

For related reasons, Jim Hoffa -- a major union leader -- over the weekend called many American companies unpatriotic for not spending money on American workers.

A recent poll found that 8 in 10 Americans believe we're currently in a recession (officially, we're not), which might be related to the job numbers released last week . . .

Link Round-Up, 8-31-11

Here's an excellent case study in policy implementation: the new rules regarding the identification of criminal suspects by witnesses that have been implemented in some places (and now mandated in NJ), while others insist the old rules were fine.

President Obama has chosen a new head of the Council of Economic Advisers: Alan Krueger, an economist at Princeton who studies the job market among other topics.

On the occasion of the installation of the new Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial in D.C., Congressman John Lewis writes that the voter identification laws being passed in states around the country are just another attempt to keep minorities and the poor from voting -- a poll tax by another name

Here's a brief synopsis of the race for the Republican nomination, courtesy of The Economist

Liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that the Republican Party has become the "anti-science party" as Republican candidate Jon Huntsman warned about.  He concludes by arguing that

the odds are that one of these years the world’s greatest nation will find itself ruled by a party that is aggressively anti-science, indeed anti-knowledge. And, in a time of severe challenges — environmental, economic, and more — that’s a terrifying prospect.

Link Round-Up 8-28-11

Health
Local schools are serving funnel cakes, among other sugary items, for breakfast

Here's a good visual as to why obesity is such a difficult policy problem: just look at the sheer number of factors that influence obesity

Education
America lags behind peer nations in math achievement; two writers argue that teaching HS math in task-oriented chunks rather than the current out of context progression can help us catch up

Politics
Despite being written off by national media, Ron Paul is currently faring better against Obama than Michelle Bachmann in the latest poll . . . though advocating for the elimination of FEMA during a hurricane may not make him the most popular man in some areas right now

This is a couple weeks old now, but after Rick Perry's entrance into the field (and surge in the polls) the WSJ led a stream of news outlets questioning whether the best possible Republican candidates are currently running . . . meanwhile, the latest poll shows the Republican voters are coming to terms with the candidates -- only 30% now report that they're dissatisfied

So-called "super-PACs" with unlimited donations are playing a large role in the upcoming Presidential race and are transitioning from issue-focused organizations to pseudo-campaigns supporting one candidate.

Other
The mayor of NYC ordered all coastal areas evacuated, but a number of residents are stayed put anyway

The new Vanderbilt coaching staff is pounding greatness into the heads of its players

A Few Interesting Political Links

David Brooks says we better start to take Rick Perry seriously because he could be our next President

Meanwhile, Michelle Bachmann is stepping up her rhetoric and promising to "lock the doors and shut off all the lights" of the EPA when she becomes President

A new Pew poll has found sizable changes in party identification since the last election, mostly due to shifts among White voters: here are some interesting charts to look through

After a death during fraternity hazing there last year, the President of Cornell is calling for the anti-hazing laws of NY state and others to be followed.

A recent law mandating drug testing for welfare recipients in Florida may end up costing the state more money than it saves if the current low rate of positive results continues

The Ryan Debt Plan

here are the basics

the plan has drawn praise from The Economist, but scorn from liberal commentators

Krugman thinks the projected unemployment rate is absurd (even more)

Before it was released, Dionne wondered if Obama would stand up for the poor, and now Krugman wonders the same thing

Conservative reaction is more more muted, perhaps because the plan could be risky for Republicans

Obama will address the issue this week, but nobody's quite sure what he'll say