The big story of the night is that Rick Santorum won primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi despite trailing in polls in both states. More accurate than the polls were predictions based on demography -- the results continued to be starkly different by geographic region.
The obvious questions regarding tonight's results are: 1.) Will Gingrich drop out now?; and 2.) Does Santorum actually have a chance against Romney?
It's too early for a definitive answer to either, but both look far more likely than they did just a few hours ago. Romney has huge delegate, organizational, and financial advantages, but no longer looks that much more electable than Romney. In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with Obama, Santorum loses by an average of 6 points while Romney loses by an average of 3.
Exit polls in both states indicated that voters who wanted the most conservative candidate tended to vote for Santorum while those who wanted the most electable candidate tended to vote for Romney (50 and 52% of the voters in Mississippi and Alabama said that Romney's positions were "not conservative enough" while 49 and 46% said Romney was most likely to defeat Obama).
The split over electability versus conservativeness may partially explain why former first lady Barbara Bush recently said that this is "the worst campaign I've ever seen in my life . . . I hate the fact that people think 'compromise' is a dirty word".
Meanwhile, President Obama may be more vulnerable in November than many thought just a few weeks ago. The latest tracking polls reveal a drop in his approval ratings, with the NYT/CBS polls reporting just a 41% approval rate. The same poll has Obama up only 4 points in a hypothetical match-up with Santorum.
And it could always get worse, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. The Economist writes that "More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth" but "if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery".
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Politics Links, 3-11-12
Romney won enough states on Super Tuesday to cement his position as frontrunner and extend his delegate lead, but not enough to convince Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum to leave the race. As a result, Romney's staff began responding to those who question his lack of decisive victories by arguing that the delegate math makes it impossible for any of the other candidates to win.
Santorum, meanwhile, won a decisive victory in Kansas on Saturday, extending his streak of winning every state in the middle of the country.
Meanwhile, turnout is down in the majority of Republican primaries to date -- with the exception of states with "open" primaries that allow Independents and Democrats to vote.
The economy added 227,000 jobs in February -- the third consecutive month with 200K+ jobs added -- and a wide range of figures indicate likely future growth
Harvard Economist (and Romney campaign consultant) Greg Mankiw provides a breakdown of what counts as ordinary earned income and what counts as capital gains using five examples where people make money off the sale of a house.
In a rare act of bipartisanship, the House passed the JOBS Act (Jumpstart Our Business Startups) by a vote of 390-23. The bill is designed to make it easier for new businesses to obtain financing.
Female legislators in Georgia's State Senate walked out last week to protest votes on limiting access to contraception and abortions -- what they called "a war on women"
Olympia Snowe, a moderate Republican Senator from Maine, has decided not to run again because she sees little possibility of progress given the partisan gridlock
Illegal border crossings along the Mexican border have decreased by about 2/3 over the past six years, but there's been an uptick in violent confrontations
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Links, 2-22-12
Rich Santorum garnered some attention after calling the idea of schools run by state or federal governments "anachronistic"
The Economist has a feature article on Cass Sunstein's efforts to streamline federal government regulations.
NJ Governor Chris Christie says Warren Buffet "should just write a check and shut up" if he thinks that the wealthy should pay higher taxes
Ruth Ann Dailey has "a civil solution to the same-sex marriage angst". She writes that the problem with many gay marriage laws is that they result in "religious oppression" and make religious conservatives "second-class citizens". She cites the case of DC which passed a gay marriage law requiring that "'every third party' recognize same-sex marriage as legitimate". The result, she says, is that Catholic Charities ended it's foster care rather than allow gay couples to adopt babies and discontinued health insurance rather than provide coverage to gay spouses. Her solution is for the government to offer only civil unions to all citizens, straight or gay, and for churches to choose which unions they recognize as marriage or not. She says the approach has worked in California, where the San Francisco diocese now simply offers health insurance coverage to a "second adult" in the household "regardless of relationship".
Rick Santorum has polled ahead of Mitt Romney in the last six national polls, including leads of 10+ points in three of them.
Thomas Friedman writes that a third-party candidate is likely if the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney spent far more money than he took in during the month of January, erasing his large lead in fundraising.
Frank Bruni writes that people are too focused on drugs when they discuss the deaths of Whitney Houston and Amy Whinehouse. He says that alcohol does far more societal damage than do drugs but that nobody seems willing to confront the problem -- excise taxes have markedly declined over the past few decades in real dollars, for example. Therefore, he argues, we need to level a pigovian tax on alcohol to account for these negative externalities.
President Obama wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 28% but eliminate enough loopholes, exceptions, and subsidies to make the tax cut revenue neutral.
The economy looks like it's recovering, but there's always the danger that gas prices, local/state government funding cuts, turmoil in Europe, or some unforeseen shock (e.g. the Nuclear disaster in Japan last year) could derail growth.
For the first 150 years, most presidents home-schooled their children at the White House, he said. “Where did they come up that public education and bigger education bureaucracies was the rule in America? Parents educated their children, because it’s their responsibility to educate their children.” “Yes the government can help,” Mr. Santorum added. “But the idea that the federal government should be running schools, frankly much less that the state government should be running schools, is anachronistic. It goes back to the time of industrialization of America when people came off the farms where they did home-school or have the little neighborhood school, and into these big factories, so we built equal factories called public schools. And while those factories as we all know in Ohio and Pennsylvania have fundamentally changed, the factory school has not.”
The Economist has a feature article on Cass Sunstein's efforts to streamline federal government regulations.
NJ Governor Chris Christie says Warren Buffet "should just write a check and shut up" if he thinks that the wealthy should pay higher taxes
Ruth Ann Dailey has "a civil solution to the same-sex marriage angst". She writes that the problem with many gay marriage laws is that they result in "religious oppression" and make religious conservatives "second-class citizens". She cites the case of DC which passed a gay marriage law requiring that "'every third party' recognize same-sex marriage as legitimate". The result, she says, is that Catholic Charities ended it's foster care rather than allow gay couples to adopt babies and discontinued health insurance rather than provide coverage to gay spouses. Her solution is for the government to offer only civil unions to all citizens, straight or gay, and for churches to choose which unions they recognize as marriage or not. She says the approach has worked in California, where the San Francisco diocese now simply offers health insurance coverage to a "second adult" in the household "regardless of relationship".
Rick Santorum has polled ahead of Mitt Romney in the last six national polls, including leads of 10+ points in three of them.
Thomas Friedman writes that a third-party candidate is likely if the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney spent far more money than he took in during the month of January, erasing his large lead in fundraising.
Frank Bruni writes that people are too focused on drugs when they discuss the deaths of Whitney Houston and Amy Whinehouse. He says that alcohol does far more societal damage than do drugs but that nobody seems willing to confront the problem -- excise taxes have markedly declined over the past few decades in real dollars, for example. Therefore, he argues, we need to level a pigovian tax on alcohol to account for these negative externalities.
President Obama wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 28% but eliminate enough loopholes, exceptions, and subsidies to make the tax cut revenue neutral.
The economy looks like it's recovering, but there's always the danger that gas prices, local/state government funding cuts, turmoil in Europe, or some unforeseen shock (e.g. the Nuclear disaster in Japan last year) could derail growth.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Links, 2-20-12
3 of the 4 candidates have declined to participate in March 1st debate CNN is sponsoring in Atlanta, which means that the debate next Wednesday in Arizona could be the last debate of the primary season
Here's an interesting piece on various attempts to quantify the conservative-ness of the Republican candidates. Santorum is rated more moderately on economic issues and more conservatively on social issues than Romney. Correspondingly, newspapers mention social issues in conjunction with Santorum's name far more often than they do with Romney's name (and vice-versa with economic issues). The keywords most frequently used in conjunction with Santorum's name are sex/sexuality, gay rights/gay marriage/same-sex marriage, and birth control/contraception. Meanwhile, tax/taxes, stimulus, and wealth/wealthy/rich are most frequently used in articles discussing Romney.
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat follows the trend by pointing out that Santorum thinks contraception should be legal but that both he and liberals agree that abortions should be minimized, writing that "both Democrats and Republicans generally agree that the country would be better off with fewer pregnant teenagers, fewer unwanted children, fewer absent fathers, fewer out-of-wedlock births"
He continues to argue that the problem with the Conservative vision is that "a successful chastity-centric culture seems to depned on a level of social cohesion, religious intensity shared values that exists only in small pockets of the country" and that the problem with the Liberal vision is that "more condoms, fewer abortions" is not playing out in reality -- that more liberal states sometimes have lower teen birth rates only because they have higher rates of abortion among teens.
The Economist asks how much of the declining crime rate is due to the growing prison population
A new study finds that people grow more tolerant as they grow older
Paul Krugman takes Mitt Romney to task for calling himself "severely conservative," writing that "severely" is usually used to describe a disease (a linguistics prof. at Penn says "severely" is most frequently coupled with disabled, depressed, ill, limited, and injured) and asks if Romney and others have "Severe Conservative Syndrome".
Congress will pay for the extension in the payroll tax by auctioning off public airwaves currently used for TV broadcasts to wireless carriers
Here's a chart comparing organ donation rates around the world
This is only sort of related to public policy, but interesting nonetheless -- here are two charts breaking down what men and women want in a partner and how that's changed in the past 70 years.
The majority of babies born to women under 30 are now born out of wedlock, though the stats differ greatly by race and SES: "About 92 percent of college-educated women are married when they give birth, compared with 62 percent of women with some post-secondary schooling and 43 percent of women with a high school diploma or less"
And to round out the trio of articles on marriage and child-rearing here's a piece on how to develop self-control in your child in which the authors say recent books extolling the virtues of Chinese and French-style parenting aren't the only way.
Here's an interesting piece on various attempts to quantify the conservative-ness of the Republican candidates. Santorum is rated more moderately on economic issues and more conservatively on social issues than Romney. Correspondingly, newspapers mention social issues in conjunction with Santorum's name far more often than they do with Romney's name (and vice-versa with economic issues). The keywords most frequently used in conjunction with Santorum's name are sex/sexuality, gay rights/gay marriage/same-sex marriage, and birth control/contraception. Meanwhile, tax/taxes, stimulus, and wealth/wealthy/rich are most frequently used in articles discussing Romney.
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat follows the trend by pointing out that Santorum thinks contraception should be legal but that both he and liberals agree that abortions should be minimized, writing that "both Democrats and Republicans generally agree that the country would be better off with fewer pregnant teenagers, fewer unwanted children, fewer absent fathers, fewer out-of-wedlock births"
Where cultural liberals and social conservatives differ is on the means that will achieve these ends. The liberal vision tends to emphasize access to contraception as the surest path to stable families, wanted children and low abortion rates. The more direct control that women have over when and whether sex makes babies, liberals argue, the less likely they’ll be to get pregnant at the wrong time and with the wrong partner — and the less likely they’ll be to even consider having an abortion. (Slate’s Will Saletan has memorably termed this “the pro-life case for Planned Parenthood.”)
The conservative narrative, by contrast, argues that it’s more important to promote chastity, monogamy and fidelity than to worry about whether there’s a prophylactic in every bedroom drawer or bathroom cabinet. To the extent that contraceptive use has a significant role in the conservative vision (and obviously there’s some Catholic-Protestant disagreement), it’s in the context of already stable, already committed relationships. Monogamy, not chemicals or latex, is the main line of defense against unwanted pregnancies.
He continues to argue that the problem with the Conservative vision is that "a successful chastity-centric culture seems to depned on a level of social cohesion, religious intensity shared values that exists only in small pockets of the country" and that the problem with the Liberal vision is that "more condoms, fewer abortions" is not playing out in reality -- that more liberal states sometimes have lower teen birth rates only because they have higher rates of abortion among teens.
The Economist asks how much of the declining crime rate is due to the growing prison population
A new study finds that people grow more tolerant as they grow older
Paul Krugman takes Mitt Romney to task for calling himself "severely conservative," writing that "severely" is usually used to describe a disease (a linguistics prof. at Penn says "severely" is most frequently coupled with disabled, depressed, ill, limited, and injured) and asks if Romney and others have "Severe Conservative Syndrome".
today’s dismal G.O.P. field — is there anyone who doesn’t consider it dismal? — is no accident. Economic conservatives played a cynical game, and now they’re facing the blowback, a party that suffers from “severe” conservatism in the worst way. And the malady may take many years to cure.
Congress will pay for the extension in the payroll tax by auctioning off public airwaves currently used for TV broadcasts to wireless carriers
Here's a chart comparing organ donation rates around the world
This is only sort of related to public policy, but interesting nonetheless -- here are two charts breaking down what men and women want in a partner and how that's changed in the past 70 years.
The majority of babies born to women under 30 are now born out of wedlock, though the stats differ greatly by race and SES: "About 92 percent of college-educated women are married when they give birth, compared with 62 percent of women with some post-secondary schooling and 43 percent of women with a high school diploma or less"
And to round out the trio of articles on marriage and child-rearing here's a piece on how to develop self-control in your child in which the authors say recent books extolling the virtues of Chinese and French-style parenting aren't the only way.
Effective approaches for building self-control combine fun with progressively increasing challenges. Rather than force activities onto an unwilling child, take advantage of his or her individual tendencies. When children develop self-control through their own pursuit of happiness, no parental hovering is required. Find something that the child is crazy about but that requires active effort. Whether it’s compiling baseball statistics or making (but not passively watching) YouTube videos, passionate hobbies build mental staying power that can also be used for math homework.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Links, 2-13-12
Romney won the straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Committee meetings, edging out Rick Santorum 38-31% and looks to have won the Maine Caucuses, edging Ron Paul 39-36% (though Paul could still end up with more delegates). Santorum is ahead in the latest national poll and second in two others, leading him to declare that "this is a two-person race right now". Meanwhile, others are arguing that the Santorum surge may lead to a brokered convention.
The Obama administration announced a compromise on the contraception issue, which drew mixed reactions. A group of Bishops were not happy, saying that the compromise raised "a grave moral concern," but other catholic groups supported the compromise. And some secular commentators complained that religious groups are able to do whatever they please in the name of religion -- Nick Kristof cites a stat that 98% of Catholic women use a contraceptive at some point in their lives and concludes
Federal and state officials reached a deal on troubled mortgages with some large, national banks that would award $2,000 to people whose homes were improperly foreclosed upon and allow people currently underwater to refinance at lower rates and make some other mortgage modifications.
A woman in Arizona was declared ineligible to run for City Council after it was decided that her English wasn't good enough.
Teen pregnancies, births, and abortions have dropped by almost half since 1990
Here's the article we discussed in class on priming people to walk faster after a fake research study
Here's an entertaining, but illuminating, short video of Tucker Carlson (a conservative commentator) and Paul Begala (a liberal commentator) playing a word association game at CPAC. Words mentioned by the moderator include unions, poor people, the IRS, and Kim Kardashian
The Obama administration announced a compromise on the contraception issue, which drew mixed reactions. A group of Bishops were not happy, saying that the compromise raised "a grave moral concern," but other catholic groups supported the compromise. And some secular commentators complained that religious groups are able to do whatever they please in the name of religion -- Nick Kristof cites a stat that 98% of Catholic women use a contraceptive at some point in their lives and concludes
In this case, we should make a good-faith effort to avoid offending Catholic bishops who passionately oppose birth control. I’m glad that Obama sought a compromise. But let’s remember that there are also other interests at stake. If we have to choose between bishops’ sensibilities and women’s health, our national priority must be the female half of our population.
Federal and state officials reached a deal on troubled mortgages with some large, national banks that would award $2,000 to people whose homes were improperly foreclosed upon and allow people currently underwater to refinance at lower rates and make some other mortgage modifications.
A woman in Arizona was declared ineligible to run for City Council after it was decided that her English wasn't good enough.
Teen pregnancies, births, and abortions have dropped by almost half since 1990
Here's the article we discussed in class on priming people to walk faster after a fake research study
Here's an entertaining, but illuminating, short video of Tucker Carlson (a conservative commentator) and Paul Begala (a liberal commentator) playing a word association game at CPAC. Words mentioned by the moderator include unions, poor people, the IRS, and Kim Kardashian
Friday, February 10, 2012
Links, 2-10-12
After Santorum's victories, it's looking more and more likely that these primaries will drag on for a long time.
Michelle Bachmann says that Santorum's victories were a shot across the bow, saying that these elections were the first where voters focused on social issues.
John McCain says low turnout was to blame for Romney's defeats on Tuesday, pointing out that only about 1% of registered voters voted across the three states. Prior to Tuesday's defeats, Romney had done the best in states with depressed turnout.
This infographic on Congressional wealth has been floating around the internet, so I decided to see if it was accurate. According to estimates of Congressional net worth posted on the Center for Responsive Politics' website (Members of Congress only have to report their asset in value ranges, so the midpoint of that range is a guesstimate of their true net worth), the median net worth of a member of Congress is just shy of $1 million. Yes, that means that almost half of all members of Congress (and almost 2/3 of Senators) were likely millionaires according to their 2010 financial disclosures. The median Senator was worth about $2.5 million and the median House member about $768K.
Gay marriage is once again in the news after it was legalized in Washington (state) and California's ban was overturned in appeals court. Here's the legal status of gay marriage in all 50 states.
Here's a discussion between liberal columnist Gail Collins and conservative columnist David Brooks on whether Catholic hospitals and schools should be exempt from the requirement that employers must provide health insurance that includes coverage for contraceptives.
Michelle Bachmann says that Santorum's victories were a shot across the bow, saying that these elections were the first where voters focused on social issues.
John McCain says low turnout was to blame for Romney's defeats on Tuesday, pointing out that only about 1% of registered voters voted across the three states. Prior to Tuesday's defeats, Romney had done the best in states with depressed turnout.
This infographic on Congressional wealth has been floating around the internet, so I decided to see if it was accurate. According to estimates of Congressional net worth posted on the Center for Responsive Politics' website (Members of Congress only have to report their asset in value ranges, so the midpoint of that range is a guesstimate of their true net worth), the median net worth of a member of Congress is just shy of $1 million. Yes, that means that almost half of all members of Congress (and almost 2/3 of Senators) were likely millionaires according to their 2010 financial disclosures. The median Senator was worth about $2.5 million and the median House member about $768K.
Gay marriage is once again in the news after it was legalized in Washington (state) and California's ban was overturned in appeals court. Here's the legal status of gay marriage in all 50 states.
Here's a discussion between liberal columnist Gail Collins and conservative columnist David Brooks on whether Catholic hospitals and schools should be exempt from the requirement that employers must provide health insurance that includes coverage for contraceptives.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Links, 2-8-12
Rick Santorum went for three for three tonight, sweeping to easy victories in the Minnesota caucuses and the non-binding Missouri "primary" (the actual caucuses are a month away), and edging out Romney in the Colorado caucuses as well. Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, finished a distant third in Colorado, an even more distant fourth in Minnesota, and failed to qualify for the ballot in Missouri.
The results will likely shock many, but not everybody. On Monday, Ross Douthat echoed a number of other recent columns and blog posts and asked whether Santorum isn't now better positioned to challenge Romney in the Republican primaries.
Here's the graphic on nudges in lunch line design by researchers at Cornell that we discussed in class
After long resisting the idea of "Super PACs," President Obama has decided to allow staff members to make a stronger effort to raise money for the "Priorities USA" Super PAC that supports his re-election bid.
Some Republicans, including Karl Rove, attacked Chrysler's Super Bowl ad "Halftime in America" as a political ad blatantly supporting Obama's auto bailouts that cost the country billions of dollars. Charles Blow doesn't disagree that the ad was pro-bailout, but disagrees with Rove's characterization of the bailouts, pointing out that Bush wrote the first bailout check and that Chrysler and GM have repaid almost all of the money.
Perhaps adding fuel to that fire, Joe Biden's one sentence summary of Obama's argument for re-election is "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive".
There are now about half as many conservative "blue dog" Democrats in the House as there were a few years ago. There are fewer moderate Republicans as well.
Here is The Economist's take on Charles Murray's new book on the classes drifting apart in America.
The Economist interviews Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics and one of the fathers of the field of Behavioral Economics and they discuss limits to the rational actor model and common mistakes in human decision making.
The Obama Administration is trying to assuage concerns from religiously-affiliated organizations, particularly the Catholic Church, after a new rule was announced requiring all organizations to offer to cover contraceptives in the health care plans they offer to outside employees
In response to the recent debates over Abortion, Andrew Rosenthal asks if abortions are truly rare in America
The results will likely shock many, but not everybody. On Monday, Ross Douthat echoed a number of other recent columns and blog posts and asked whether Santorum isn't now better positioned to challenge Romney in the Republican primaries.
Here's the graphic on nudges in lunch line design by researchers at Cornell that we discussed in class
After long resisting the idea of "Super PACs," President Obama has decided to allow staff members to make a stronger effort to raise money for the "Priorities USA" Super PAC that supports his re-election bid.
Some Republicans, including Karl Rove, attacked Chrysler's Super Bowl ad "Halftime in America" as a political ad blatantly supporting Obama's auto bailouts that cost the country billions of dollars. Charles Blow doesn't disagree that the ad was pro-bailout, but disagrees with Rove's characterization of the bailouts, pointing out that Bush wrote the first bailout check and that Chrysler and GM have repaid almost all of the money.
Perhaps adding fuel to that fire, Joe Biden's one sentence summary of Obama's argument for re-election is "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive".
There are now about half as many conservative "blue dog" Democrats in the House as there were a few years ago. There are fewer moderate Republicans as well.
Here is The Economist's take on Charles Murray's new book on the classes drifting apart in America.
The Economist interviews Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics and one of the fathers of the field of Behavioral Economics and they discuss limits to the rational actor model and common mistakes in human decision making.
The Obama Administration is trying to assuage concerns from religiously-affiliated organizations, particularly the Catholic Church, after a new rule was announced requiring all organizations to offer to cover contraceptives in the health care plans they offer to outside employees
In response to the recent debates over Abortion, Andrew Rosenthal asks if abortions are truly rare in America
Monday, February 6, 2012
Links, 2-6-12
The economy added 243,000 jobs in January (257,000 by private companies and -14,000 government jobs), and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% -- the lowest in 3 years -- probably in part because banks are starting to lend money again. The report came as a bit of a surprise, as economists were predicting about 100K fewer jobs created, sending Republicans scrambling to re-write their critical press releases . . . but they eventually recovered, with Reince Priebus, the RNC Chair, saying that "our economy remains unacceptably weak". Unlike previous reports, this one might signal real long-term growth ahead. As The Economist reports:
No one stat can tell us everything, but previous elections indicate that continued growth of 150K+ jobs per month would be good news for Obama's reelection chances. But Paul Krugman cautions that even this rate of job growth will not return the country to full employment until 2019.
Romney easily won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday. Here are the entrance poll results. Next week will bring caucuses in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. Here's the full primary calendar, including past results.
It may be a little late for this, given that it's looking more and more likely that Romney will run away with the nomination, but here's a chart comparing the candidates' stances on the issues.
Sheldon Adelson, whose $10 million in donations to the "Super PAC" supporting Newt Gingrich may be singularly responsible for Gingrich's ability to continue in the race, has assured Romney's backers in private that he'll support Romney even more generously once it becomes clear that Gingrich no longer has a shot. Romney, meanwhile, now says that he "misspoke" when declaring his lack of concern for the very poor last week. And Fareed Zakaria chastises Romney for misinterpreting the phrase "Post-American World," writing that in his book of the same title, he begins by writing that "this is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else."
President Obama is now arguing that his desire for higher taxes on the wealth is based on his own personal faith, saying at the National Prayer Breakfast that "For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus's teaching that for unto whom much is given, much shall be required"
A cost-benefit analysis of Alabama's new strict immigration law by a University of Alabama economist finds that law could shrink the state's GDP by as much as 6% and cost the state over $200 million in sales and income taxes, though he notes that many of the benefits are hard to quantify, and says the remaining question for state legislators is "Are the benefits of the new immigration law worth the costs?"
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes that the coverage of the Komen foundation/Planned Parenthood kerfuffle last week shows that the media have "blinders" on when it comes to abortion
Liberal columnist Maureen Dowd writes that the reason Gingrich is still in the race is because of his wife.
Is the jobs recovery finally for real?
It certainly feels that way. Before getting into the caveats, let's look at January's solid employment report. Non-farm employment jumped 243,000, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%.
There were no obvious asterisks marring the positive tone of the report. Payroll gains were broad based. Construction rose 21,000, not surrendering any of its mild-weather gains of December. Manufacturing jumped 50,000, corroborating other signs of strength in the industrial sector. Government employment is becoming less of a drag: it fell only 14,000.
Prior declines in the unemployment rate were often the result of people dropping out of the labour force and thus no longer being counted as unemployed. Not this time. In January the number of employed people jumped 631,000, after adjusting for new population estimates. That’s according to the household survey which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, and often produces different results from the bigger and better-known payroll survey.
No one stat can tell us everything, but previous elections indicate that continued growth of 150K+ jobs per month would be good news for Obama's reelection chances. But Paul Krugman cautions that even this rate of job growth will not return the country to full employment until 2019.
Romney easily won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday. Here are the entrance poll results. Next week will bring caucuses in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. Here's the full primary calendar, including past results.
It may be a little late for this, given that it's looking more and more likely that Romney will run away with the nomination, but here's a chart comparing the candidates' stances on the issues.
Sheldon Adelson, whose $10 million in donations to the "Super PAC" supporting Newt Gingrich may be singularly responsible for Gingrich's ability to continue in the race, has assured Romney's backers in private that he'll support Romney even more generously once it becomes clear that Gingrich no longer has a shot. Romney, meanwhile, now says that he "misspoke" when declaring his lack of concern for the very poor last week. And Fareed Zakaria chastises Romney for misinterpreting the phrase "Post-American World," writing that in his book of the same title, he begins by writing that "this is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else."
President Obama is now arguing that his desire for higher taxes on the wealth is based on his own personal faith, saying at the National Prayer Breakfast that "For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus's teaching that for unto whom much is given, much shall be required"
A cost-benefit analysis of Alabama's new strict immigration law by a University of Alabama economist finds that law could shrink the state's GDP by as much as 6% and cost the state over $200 million in sales and income taxes, though he notes that many of the benefits are hard to quantify, and says the remaining question for state legislators is "Are the benefits of the new immigration law worth the costs?"
Conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes that the coverage of the Komen foundation/Planned Parenthood kerfuffle last week shows that the media have "blinders" on when it comes to abortion
Conservative complaints about media bias are sometimes overdrawn. But on the abortion issue, the press’s prejudices are often absolute, its biases blatant and its blinders impenetrable. In many newsrooms and television studios across the country, Planned Parenthood is regarded as the equivalent of, well, the Komen foundation: an apolitical, high-minded and humanitarian institution whose work no rational person — and certainly no self-respecting woman — could possibly question or oppose.
But of course millions of Americans — including, yes, millions of American women — do oppose Planned Parenthood. They oppose the 300,000-plus abortions it performs every year (making it the largest abortion provider in the country), and they oppose its tireless opposition to even modest limits on abortion.
Liberal columnist Maureen Dowd writes that the reason Gingrich is still in the race is because of his wife.
You can find her anytime standing statue-still on stage next to Newt as he speaks, gazing at him with such frozen attentiveness that she could give a master class to Nancy Reagan . . .
“She’s a transformational wife,” Alex Castellanos, the Republican strategist, told me. “She’s the wife who makes the candidate think he is destiny’s gift to mankind, born to greater things.” . . .
When Barack is cocky and looks at Michelle, he might see her thinking: “You’re no messiah. Pick up your socks.” But when Newt is cocky and looks at Callista, he sees her thinking: “You are the messiah. We’ll have your socks bronzed.”
Friday, February 3, 2012
Links, 2-3-12
Mitt Romney has come under fire for saying "I'm not concerned about the very poor" . . . here's the video of the entire discussion. And here is both a cynical reaction and Romney's explanation
The other major controversy of the past 48 hours is the Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation's decision to eliminate their grants to Planned Parenthood, which sparked an uproar in the blogosphere and on social media sites and prompted NYC Michael Bloomberg to pledge $250K in matching grant money to Planned Parenthood, saying that "Politics have no place in health care". Update: The Komen foundation has backed off their decision and said that Planned Parenthood is again eligible to apply for grants.
February has six primaries/caucuses. In three of those states (Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan), enough polling has been done to predict a winner -- Romney is the prohibitive favorite in all three. The Ohio primary in March, however, is a toss-up.
Columnist Nick Kristof asks "Where Are the Romney Republicans?" and, citing a new book on the history of the party, argues that today's Republicans are the outliers -- that throughout history, Massachusetts moderates like Mitt Romney have dominated the Republican Party.
The new book, “Rule and Ruin,” by Geoffrey Kabaservice, a former assistant history professor at Yale, notes that, to compete in the primaries, Romney has had to flee from his own political record and that of his father, George Romney, a former governor of Michigan who is a symbol of mainstream moderation.
“Much of the current conservative movement is characterized by this sort of historical amnesia and symbolic parricide, which seeks to undo key aspects of the Republican legacy such as Reagan’s elimination of corporate tax loopholes, Nixon’s environmental and labor safety programs, and a variety of G.O.P. achievements in civil rights, civil liberties, and good government reforms,” Kabaservice writes. “In the long view of history, it is really today’s conservatives who are ‘Republicans in name only.’ ”
After all, the original Massachusetts moderates were legendary figures in Republican history, like Elihu Root and Henry Cabot Lodge. Theodore Roosevelt embraced progressivism as “the highest and wisest form of conservatism.” Few did more to promote racial integration, civil rights and individual freedoms than a Republican, Earl Warren, in his years as chief justice.
Dwight Eisenhower cautioned against excess military spending as “a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” Richard Nixon proposed health care reform. Ronald Reagan endorsed the same tax rate for capital gains as for earned income. Each of these titans of Republican Party history would today risk mockery for these views.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Links, 2-1-12
As predicted, Romney cruised to victory in the Florida primary, making him once again the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination. The primary was, according to one measure, the most negative campaign ever recorded -- 92% of TV commercials were negative. Here are the exit polls.
Here's a chart comparing the 4th quarter fundraising filings for all the Presidential candidates. As of December 31, Romney had far more money than the rest of the candidates combined.
A study of compensation of federal workers found that, controlling for other factors, those without college degrees are paid significantly more when employed by the federal government while those with graduate degrees are paid significantly less.
A new study finds that segregation in cities has been reduced, though the article notes that “the average black resident still lives in a neighborhood that is 45 percent black and 36 percent white" and the "average white lives in a neighborhood that is 78 percent white and 7 percent black."
A study that stirred up some press finds physiological differences between conservatives and liberals
Nashville has offered buyouts to hundreds of residents whose homes were badly damaged in the flood, with the goal of reverting some areas back to greenspace to serve as floodplains. But 30% of residents have refused the buyouts and rebuilt instead.
Conservative columnist David Brooks writes about the widening social differences between the haves and have-nots. Comparing what he deems the "upper tribe" (20 percent of Americans) to the "lower tribe" (30 percent of Americans," a new book notes that
Brooks argues that this is counter to the narratives offered by both Conservatives and Liberals and a National Service Program would force members of the two tribes to live and "work together to spread out the values, practices and institutions that lead to achievement"
Liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that the austerity programs (cutting spending) implemented in a number of countries are only hindering economic recovery. He notes that Britain and Italy have recovered less quickly from the Great Recession than they did from the Great Depression and argues that we should avoid repeating these country's mistakes by implementing the drastic spending cuts many in Congress advocate. He concludes by writing that
Here's a chart comparing the 4th quarter fundraising filings for all the Presidential candidates. As of December 31, Romney had far more money than the rest of the candidates combined.
A study of compensation of federal workers found that, controlling for other factors, those without college degrees are paid significantly more when employed by the federal government while those with graduate degrees are paid significantly less.
A new study finds that segregation in cities has been reduced, though the article notes that “the average black resident still lives in a neighborhood that is 45 percent black and 36 percent white" and the "average white lives in a neighborhood that is 78 percent white and 7 percent black."
A study that stirred up some press finds physiological differences between conservatives and liberals
Nashville has offered buyouts to hundreds of residents whose homes were badly damaged in the flood, with the goal of reverting some areas back to greenspace to serve as floodplains. But 30% of residents have refused the buyouts and rebuilt instead.
Conservative columnist David Brooks writes about the widening social differences between the haves and have-nots. Comparing what he deems the "upper tribe" (20 percent of Americans) to the "lower tribe" (30 percent of Americans," a new book notes that
Roughly 7 percent of the white kids in the upper tribe are born out of wedlock, compared with roughly 45 percent of the kids in the lower tribe. In the upper tribe, nearly every man aged 30 to 49 is in the labor force. In the lower tribe, men in their prime working ages have been steadily dropping out of the labor force, in good times and bad.
People in the lower tribe are much less likely to get married, less likely to go to church, less likely to be active in their communities, more likely to watch TV excessively, more likely to be obese.
Brooks argues that this is counter to the narratives offered by both Conservatives and Liberals and a National Service Program would force members of the two tribes to live and "work together to spread out the values, practices and institutions that lead to achievement"
Liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that the austerity programs (cutting spending) implemented in a number of countries are only hindering economic recovery. He notes that Britain and Italy have recovered less quickly from the Great Recession than they did from the Great Depression and argues that we should avoid repeating these country's mistakes by implementing the drastic spending cuts many in Congress advocate. He concludes by writing that
The infuriating thing about this tragedy is that it was completely unnecessary. Half a century ago, any economist — or for that matter any undergraduate who had read Paul Samuelson’s textbook “Economics” — could have told you that austerity in the face of depression was a very bad idea. But policy makers, pundits and, I’m sorry to say, many economists decided, largely for political reasons, to forget what they used to know. And millions of workers are paying the price for their willful amnesia.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Links, 1-29-12
After the loss to Gingrich in South Carolina, Gingrich's poll numbers in Florida spiked. Then many in the GOP establishment began speaking out against Gingrich and Romney's campaign decided to attack Gingrich directly, and the poll numbers reversed. Gingrich hasn't given up, attacking Romney for his health care plan and moderate record in Massachusetts, but the numbers look bleak and February looks like it could be a good month for Romney. Meanwhile, Gingrich still leads in national polls.
Gingrich also made a few notable statements last week. The two that drew the most attention were his plan to form a colony on the moon by the end of his second term and his admission that, contrary to what he told Jon King while excoriating him at the second SC debate, his campaign did not actually offer witnesses to ABC to rebut his wife's claim.
The up and down movement in the polls likely reflects the Republican electorate's frustration with their choices, which was reflected by conservative columnist Bret Stephens' recent piece entitled "The GOP Deserves to Lose: That's what happens when you run with losers"
While "Super PAC" spending is dominating the Republican primary race, the candidates in what may be the highest profile senate race this fall (Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in MA) have signed an agreement not to allow super PAC ads.
The Economist takes an in-depth look at the American economy writing, among other things, about how we can raise the highest tax rates without doing too much damage
Here's a graphic detailing the usage of various words in the last ten State of the Union speeches and here is a fact check of the SOTU and the Republican response.
Gingrich also made a few notable statements last week. The two that drew the most attention were his plan to form a colony on the moon by the end of his second term and his admission that, contrary to what he told Jon King while excoriating him at the second SC debate, his campaign did not actually offer witnesses to ABC to rebut his wife's claim.
The up and down movement in the polls likely reflects the Republican electorate's frustration with their choices, which was reflected by conservative columnist Bret Stephens' recent piece entitled "The GOP Deserves to Lose: That's what happens when you run with losers"
While "Super PAC" spending is dominating the Republican primary race, the candidates in what may be the highest profile senate race this fall (Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in MA) have signed an agreement not to allow super PAC ads.
The Economist takes an in-depth look at the American economy writing, among other things, about how we can raise the highest tax rates without doing too much damage
Here's a graphic detailing the usage of various words in the last ten State of the Union speeches and here is a fact check of the SOTU and the Republican response.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Links, 1-24-12
Last night's debate saw Romney more aggressively attacking Gingrich for his past activities, including accusations that Gingrich lobbied and had to resign as speaker. Unlike the SC debates, moderator Brian Williams asked the crowd to remain silent -- which Gingrich said he wouldn't "allow" in the future. Here are 5 things we learned from the debate.
Meanwhile, Gingrich's surge in the polls continues -- he's now the favorite to win in Florida and is ahead of Romney in the latest national polling.
Romney released his taxes from 2010, and estimated taxes from 2011, at midnight last night, as first reported by the Washington Post. In 2010, Romney paid taxes equal to 13.9% of his income (which exceeded $20 million).
Here's a look ahead to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight, which is expected to frame his argument for re-election.
Frank Bruni writes about Gingrich's rhetoric, arguing that he's currently proving wrong a strategist's maxim that "a politician could succeed with his zipper down, but not with his words unbridled".
Conservative columnist David Brooks takes both parties to task, arguing that we need to mix "More economic freedom combined with more social structure; more competition combined with more support" in a sort of "free-market socialism" that would be "libertarian in the capitalist sector and activist in the human capital sector".
Meanwhile, Gingrich's surge in the polls continues -- he's now the favorite to win in Florida and is ahead of Romney in the latest national polling.
Romney released his taxes from 2010, and estimated taxes from 2011, at midnight last night, as first reported by the Washington Post. In 2010, Romney paid taxes equal to 13.9% of his income (which exceeded $20 million).
Here's a look ahead to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight, which is expected to frame his argument for re-election.
Frank Bruni writes about Gingrich's rhetoric, arguing that he's currently proving wrong a strategist's maxim that "a politician could succeed with his zipper down, but not with his words unbridled".
Conservative columnist David Brooks takes both parties to task, arguing that we need to mix "More economic freedom combined with more social structure; more competition combined with more support" in a sort of "free-market socialism" that would be "libertarian in the capitalist sector and activist in the human capital sector".
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Links, 1-19-12
A couple of days ago, it looked like Mitt Romney was going to cruise to victory in the Republican primaries, but now they're in a bit more flux. First, after re-checking the ballots, Rick Santorum was declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. Then, Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich.
A few minutes later, ABC News announced they would air an interview with Gingrich's second wife, in which she later alleged that he asked to have an open marriage shortly after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis -- an allegation that led to an explosive response from Gingrich to lead off tonight's Republican debate. Meanwhile, Gingrich and Romney are tied in the latest 538 South Carolina primary projections.
Mitt Romney ruffled some feathers when stated that he paid only about 15% in federal income taxes despite his vast wealth, but David Leonhardt points out that even though most Americans think they pay more than 15% in federal income taxes, only about 1/3 actually do.
Ron Paul returned to Congress to cast a symbolic vote against raising the debt ceiling, and CNN spoke to many of his colleagues -- a number of whom say Paul "doesn't have many fans in Congress"
Nate Silver examines some survey results and points out that there's no much evidence that the majority of Republican primary voters want "anybody but Romney"
A few minutes later, ABC News announced they would air an interview with Gingrich's second wife, in which she later alleged that he asked to have an open marriage shortly after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis -- an allegation that led to an explosive response from Gingrich to lead off tonight's Republican debate. Meanwhile, Gingrich and Romney are tied in the latest 538 South Carolina primary projections.
Mitt Romney ruffled some feathers when stated that he paid only about 15% in federal income taxes despite his vast wealth, but David Leonhardt points out that even though most Americans think they pay more than 15% in federal income taxes, only about 1/3 actually do.
Ron Paul returned to Congress to cast a symbolic vote against raising the debt ceiling, and CNN spoke to many of his colleagues -- a number of whom say Paul "doesn't have many fans in Congress"
Nate Silver examines some survey results and points out that there's no much evidence that the majority of Republican primary voters want "anybody but Romney"
Monday, January 16, 2012
Politics Links, 1-16-12
A New York Times news analysis discusses some new books on the Tea Party and concludes that this is the first insurgency within the Republican Party not to be led by insiders. The article notes that despite the influence of Tea Party groups, Romney seems to be on the cusp of winning.
In order to prevent this from happening, a group of evangelical leaders met on Saturday and decided to band together to support Rick Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.
Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman was endorsed by the largest newspaper in South Carolina yesterday morning . . . and then decided to drop out of the race later that day.
While polls indicate that a Romney victory may be imminent, most Republican primary voters still know little about the candidates.
But you don't have to be like everybody else: here's a comparison of the tax plans laid out by the candidates so far.
Here's what to expect from Tea Party groups in South Carolina
Speaking of recent changes in the Republican electorate, here's another explanation of Republicans' recent unwillingness to compromise in Congress
We discussed the proxy measures of Starbucks versus Wal-Marts in class . . . a similar analysis pits the presence of Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrels as predictors of election outcomes
On a different note, here's a long, but interesting, discussion of who has been a conservative throughout history and why
David Brooks asks "Where are the Liberals?"
In a move likely designed to preempt the Republican presidential candidate, President Obama is asking Congress to grant him the authority to streamline the government
In this well-researched, (though from a specific point of view, of course) piece, the Republican Party argues that these five polices enacted by Obama have been failures
Finally, you can submit a question to be asked at the CNN South Carolina debate
In order to prevent this from happening, a group of evangelical leaders met on Saturday and decided to band together to support Rick Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.
Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman was endorsed by the largest newspaper in South Carolina yesterday morning . . . and then decided to drop out of the race later that day.
While polls indicate that a Romney victory may be imminent, most Republican primary voters still know little about the candidates.
But you don't have to be like everybody else: here's a comparison of the tax plans laid out by the candidates so far.
Here's what to expect from Tea Party groups in South Carolina
Speaking of recent changes in the Republican electorate, here's another explanation of Republicans' recent unwillingness to compromise in Congress
We discussed the proxy measures of Starbucks versus Wal-Marts in class . . . a similar analysis pits the presence of Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrels as predictors of election outcomes
On a different note, here's a long, but interesting, discussion of who has been a conservative throughout history and why
David Brooks asks "Where are the Liberals?"
In a move likely designed to preempt the Republican presidential candidate, President Obama is asking Congress to grant him the authority to streamline the government
In this well-researched, (though from a specific point of view, of course) piece, the Republican Party argues that these five polices enacted by Obama have been failures
Finally, you can submit a question to be asked at the CNN South Carolina debate
Monday, November 14, 2011
The Rise of Newt Gingrich
The latest two week rolling average of polls shows a small dip in support for Herman Cain and a large increase in support for Newt Gingrich. As of the writing of this post, the averages of the last 7 polls stand at:
Romney: 22%
Cain: 21.3%
Gingrich: 17.6%
Perry: 9.9%
And the last three polls show Gingrich ahead of Cain. Intrade now estimates a 14.7% chance of a Gingrich victory, up over 10 points from just month ago.
The Washington Post writes "OK, you can call it a comeback".
The NY Times attributes the surge to the stumbles of his competitors, writing that "Mr. Gingrich is getting another shot, if only by default".
CNN attributes much of the rise to Gingrich's debate performances, writing that, given the recent struggles of Cain and Perry, it now "Looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the 'anybody but Romney' candidate." Another CNN piece points out that Gingrich has raised almost four times as much since October 1st as he did from July through September, crediting his rising poll numbers for the rising cash flow.
Nate Silver uses state and national polls to form trendlines for all the candidates and finds that due to Romney's downward trajectory and Gingrich's strong performance in state polls, the two are now virtually tied
Romney: 22%
Cain: 21.3%
Gingrich: 17.6%
Perry: 9.9%
And the last three polls show Gingrich ahead of Cain. Intrade now estimates a 14.7% chance of a Gingrich victory, up over 10 points from just month ago.
The Washington Post writes "OK, you can call it a comeback".
The NY Times attributes the surge to the stumbles of his competitors, writing that "Mr. Gingrich is getting another shot, if only by default".
CNN attributes much of the rise to Gingrich's debate performances, writing that, given the recent struggles of Cain and Perry, it now "Looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the 'anybody but Romney' candidate." Another CNN piece points out that Gingrich has raised almost four times as much since October 1st as he did from July through September, crediting his rising poll numbers for the rising cash flow.
Nate Silver uses state and national polls to form trendlines for all the candidates and finds that due to Romney's downward trajectory and Gingrich's strong performance in state polls, the two are now virtually tied
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Links, 11-8-11
Some Tennessee Principals and teachers are extremely frustrated with the way they're being forced to evaluate or the way they're being evaluated under the new program enacted with the Race to the Top funds.
A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction preventing the FDA from mandating that cigarette manufacturers place new graphic warning labels on their products
Herman Cain has solidified his lead while Rick Perry has fallen into 4th place, but has Cain leveled off? Given the recent sexual harassment charges, it's something to watch.
Check out this interactive feature where Nate Silver calculates the odds of each Republican candidates becoming President based on the economy and Obama's approval numbers
More on the tightening of voter eligibility laws and how Tennesseans are responding
A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction preventing the FDA from mandating that cigarette manufacturers place new graphic warning labels on their products
Herman Cain has solidified his lead while Rick Perry has fallen into 4th place, but has Cain leveled off? Given the recent sexual harassment charges, it's something to watch.
Check out this interactive feature where Nate Silver calculates the odds of each Republican candidates becoming President based on the economy and Obama's approval numbers
More on the tightening of voter eligibility laws and how Tennesseans are responding
Monday, October 17, 2011
Election Update
It's still too early for these polls to mean a whole lot, but the shift is undeniably dramatic regardless:
A little over two weeks ago, on September 27th, the two-week rolling average of polls was:
Perry: 27.7%
Romney 21.5%
Cain: 5.5% (5th place)
As of Sunday night, October 16th, it stands at:
Romney: 23.5%
Cain: 23.2%
Perry: 12.8%
Despite the shift in results, Cain badly trailed Perry and Romney in third-quarter fundraising: here's a table of all the candidates' fundraising totals
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Election Links 10-11-11
After Chris Christie's and Sarah Palin's decisions not to run, the Republican primary field looks set. Charles Blow argues that this means the Republicans could be in trouble and points out that in past elections far more voters could name frontrunners than in this election cycle.
The most notable change of the past couple weeks has been the fall of Rick Perry and the concurrent surge of Herman Cain. According to the latest polls, Cain is now in second place in the race. The poll averages as of Monday night were:
Lastly, "Joe the Plumber" is running for congress in Ohio
Romney: 21.9%
Cain: 16.4%
Perry: 15.3%
Meanwhile, Intrade -- a market-based prediction site in which users can buy and share stock in candidates -- predicts these odds of victory (again, as of Monday night):
Romney: 61.1%
Perry: 18.6%
Cain: 8.9%
Huntsman: 3.4%
Paul: 2.2%
The shift in the polls has led to some changes in strategy. Perry is now spending more time on debate prep and, at the urging of his aides, sleeping. Romney, meanwhile, is referring to Perry as a "desperate candidate" in an attempt to de-legitimatize his candidacy.
Cain will certainly be the center of attention at tonight's debate. Because seating is based on poll position, Cain will sit in the middle -- next to Mitt Romney. Some don't expect that to go well.
Meanwhile, Bill Keller is skeptical of Cain and argues that Perry may be the last, best hope for a Tea Party movement that remains largely unenthusiastic about the candidates.
The shift in the polls has led to some changes in strategy. Perry is now spending more time on debate prep and, at the urging of his aides, sleeping. Romney, meanwhile, is referring to Perry as a "desperate candidate" in an attempt to de-legitimatize his candidacy.
Cain will certainly be the center of attention at tonight's debate. Because seating is based on poll position, Cain will sit in the middle -- next to Mitt Romney. Some don't expect that to go well.
Meanwhile, Bill Keller is skeptical of Cain and argues that Perry may be the last, best hope for a Tea Party movement that remains largely unenthusiastic about the candidates.
“Rick Perry is the only candidate who would actually close down a cabinet department,” one longtime admirer told me, when I asked whether a President Perry would disappoint the Tea Party. “You would see a very happy base — at least for the first term.”
Lastly, "Joe the Plumber" is running for congress in Ohio
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Links, 10-5-11
The top two news stories may be good news for Democrats:
1.) Chris Christie has, once again, announced he will not be running for President this year, disappointing many Republicans who saw him as the only potential candidate who would have a really good change of defeating Obama in a general election
2.) In an election watched across the nation, the Democratic incumbent retained his position as Governor of West Virginia despite a recent rightward shift in WV politics at the national level and an intense campaign to nationalize the election and link Governor Tomblin to Obama and the new health care law
In what turns out to have been perfect timing given the first story, David Brooks yesterday wrote a column entitled In Defense of Romney, arguing that Romney is a perfectly good candidate for the Republicans, despite what many see as a major flaw:
Last week, it appeared that even though Perry was falling in the polls that Romney wasn't rising to take his place. This week, it appears that Romney is starting to become the favored candidate. But a look at the trends in the polls shows that Herman Cain is the fastest riser; the 4 polls since September 25th have Romney at 17-25%, Cain at 17%, and Perry at 12-19%.
In an ever intensifying debate about spending, the House and Senate have passed very different bills, with the House bill cutting funding for the health bill, education, Planned Parenthood, Pell Grants, NPR, and other programs
Here's a relevant online debate related to yesterday's class debate: Do Taxes Narrow the Wealth Gap? - Room for Debate
I don't usually post from overtly liberal and conservative blogs, but this is an interesting economic analogy relevant to what we discussed in class yesterday. In Short-term Gimmicks, the author compares the Republicans' insistence on spending cuts to a doctor who recommends diet and exercise to a patient having a heart attack
Here's an interesting piece about the thousands immigrants -- both illegal and illegal -- who are fleeing towns in Alabama after a court ruling upheld a strict new anti-illegal immigration law
The two-week old "Occupy Wall Street" movement is now receiving official endorsements from various local unions -- meaning the ranks of protesters could soon swell with union members
1.) Chris Christie has, once again, announced he will not be running for President this year, disappointing many Republicans who saw him as the only potential candidate who would have a really good change of defeating Obama in a general election
2.) In an election watched across the nation, the Democratic incumbent retained his position as Governor of West Virginia despite a recent rightward shift in WV politics at the national level and an intense campaign to nationalize the election and link Governor Tomblin to Obama and the new health care law
In what turns out to have been perfect timing given the first story, David Brooks yesterday wrote a column entitled In Defense of Romney, arguing that Romney is a perfectly good candidate for the Republicans, despite what many see as a major flaw:
The central problem is that Mitt Romney doesn’t fit the mold of what many Republicans want in a presidential candidate. They don’t want a technocratic manager. They want a bold, blunt radical outsider who will take on the establishment, speak truth to power and offend the liberal news media
Last week, it appeared that even though Perry was falling in the polls that Romney wasn't rising to take his place. This week, it appears that Romney is starting to become the favored candidate. But a look at the trends in the polls shows that Herman Cain is the fastest riser; the 4 polls since September 25th have Romney at 17-25%, Cain at 17%, and Perry at 12-19%.
In an ever intensifying debate about spending, the House and Senate have passed very different bills, with the House bill cutting funding for the health bill, education, Planned Parenthood, Pell Grants, NPR, and other programs
Here's a relevant online debate related to yesterday's class debate: Do Taxes Narrow the Wealth Gap? - Room for Debate
I don't usually post from overtly liberal and conservative blogs, but this is an interesting economic analogy relevant to what we discussed in class yesterday. In Short-term Gimmicks, the author compares the Republicans' insistence on spending cuts to a doctor who recommends diet and exercise to a patient having a heart attack
Here's an interesting piece about the thousands immigrants -- both illegal and illegal -- who are fleeing towns in Alabama after a court ruling upheld a strict new anti-illegal immigration law
The two-week old "Occupy Wall Street" movement is now receiving official endorsements from various local unions -- meaning the ranks of protesters could soon swell with union members
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