The Rise of Newt Gingrich

The latest two week rolling average of polls shows a small dip in support for Herman Cain and a large increase in support for Newt Gingrich.  As of the writing of this post, the averages of the last 7 polls stand at:

Romney: 22%
Cain: 21.3%
Gingrich: 17.6%
Perry: 9.9%

And the last three polls show Gingrich ahead of Cain.  Intrade now estimates a 14.7% chance of a Gingrich victory, up over 10 points from just month ago.

The Washington Post writes "OK, you can call it a comeback".

The NY Times attributes the surge to the stumbles of his competitors, writing that "Mr. Gingrich is getting another shot, if only by default".

CNN attributes much of the rise to Gingrich's debate performances, writing that, given the recent struggles of Cain and Perry, it now "Looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the 'anybody but Romney' candidate."  Another CNN piece points out that Gingrich has raised almost four times as much since October 1st as he did from July through September, crediting his rising poll numbers for the rising cash flow.

Nate Silver uses state and national polls to form trendlines for all the candidates and finds that due to Romney's downward trajectory and Gingrich's strong performance in state polls, the two are now virtually tied