Election Links 10-11-11

After Chris Christie's and Sarah Palin's decisions not to run, the Republican primary field looks set. Charles Blow argues that this means the Republicans could be in trouble and points out that in past elections far more voters could name frontrunners than in this election cycle.

The most notable change of the past couple weeks has been the fall of Rick Perry and the concurrent surge of Herman Cain.  According to the latest polls, Cain is now in second place in the race.  The poll averages as of Monday night were:

Romney: 21.9%

Cain: 16.4%

Perry: 15.3%

Meanwhile, Intrade -- a market-based prediction site in which users can buy and share stock in candidates -- predicts these odds of victory (again, as of Monday night):

Romney: 61.1%

Perry: 18.6%

Cain: 8.9%

Huntsman: 3.4%

Paul: 2.2%

The shift in the polls has led to some changes in strategy.  Perry is now spending more time on debate prep and, at the urging of his aides, sleeping.  Romney, meanwhile, is referring to Perry as a "desperate candidate" in an attempt to de-legitimatize his candidacy.

Cain will certainly be the center of attention at tonight's debate.  Because seating is based on poll position, Cain will sit in the middle -- next to Mitt Romney.  Some don't expect that to go well.

Meanwhile, Bill Keller is skeptical of Cain and argues that Perry may be the last, best hope for a Tea Party movement that remains largely unenthusiastic about the candidates.

“Rick Perry is the only candidate who would actually close down a cabinet department,” one longtime admirer told me, when I asked whether a President Perry would disappoint the Tea Party. “You would see a very happy base — at least for the first term.”

Lastly, "Joe the Plumber" is running for congress in Ohio