Public Opinion on Health Care

An oft-heard talking point about the health care bill is that the public opposes it.  The pollster.com average of public opinion polls has reported approval of the health care bill in the low forties and disapproval in the high forties for a few months now.

But some are speculating that the tide may turn after passage -- or, indeed, that it may have already turned.  A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted after the bill passed asked respondents if this was a good or bad thing -- 49% said good and 40% said bad.

A CBS poll also taken after the bill passed found that the approval/disapproval of 47/48 of the way that Obama has handled health care -- up from 41/51 before the debate

These are only two polls, so the trend might not continue.  But two explanations exist as to why we're seeing these results:

1.) The initial results were misleading.  Take the these results from a Bloomberg poll taken right before the vote in which 38% favored the bill and 50% were opposed

Health care is so complicated it is hard for the average American to understand the proposals that are currently being discussed
75% Agree, 23% Disagree

The cost of doing nothing on health care will be greater than the cost of the proposed plan to overhaul it
51% Agree, 40% Disagree

The health care system is fine the way it is
20% Agree, 79% Disagree

In short, people don't know much about the health care bill but they want to do something to fix the broken health care system.

2.) As 538 points out, a small but meaningful number of people opposed the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough.  The approval numbers among Independents and Republicans in the new USA Today/Gallup poll is roughly similar to other previous polls, but the approval numbers among Democrats are much higher.

In the last poll before the bill passed (and outlier in terms of negativity toward the bill), conducted by CNN, 59% reported that they were opposed to the bill -- but 13% reported opposing the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough.  In other words, 52% of the population either favored the bill or thought it wasn't liberal enough while 43% opposed the bill b/c it was too liberal.